SOLAR AUGMENTATION OF EXISTING HYDROPOWER AT UTILITY SCALE:

A “RAPID ASSESSMENT” TO IDENTIFY BEST CANDIDATES

Presentation to
Members of International Hydropower Association
21 November 2019

Gregory A. Thomas, Natural Heritage Institute

 Drawing Lessons from Assessment of Sustainable
Hydropower Alternatives in the Mekong River Basin
 Xe Kaman 1 reservoir (on the Xe Kaman River at confluence
with Xe Kong River) with solar panels on it and Xe Kaman
Sanxay reservoir downstream

Xe Kaman 1 Dam

Xe Kaman 1
Reservoir

GIS map of Xe Kaman 1 reservoir:

https://www.webrian.ch/2016/11/another-hydropower-dam-xekaman-
1.html
Xe Kaman 1
The Mekong
River Basin and
its potential main
stem hydropower
reservoirs.
(Nature, Vol. 478,
20 October 2011)
 Sambor
Hydropower
project in the
Lower Mekong
Basin
Lower Se San II Hydropower Project
Located at the confluence of two of the
largest tributaries that pour into the
Mekong mainstream just above the
Tonle Sap Lake and Delta
 Precedents:
• Floating solar systems: first built in 2007, now deployed
in 32 countries ranging up to 150MW

• Solar/hydro hybrids: ~2Gw installation at Longyangxia

on Yellow River in China (1989)

• Floating solar/hydro hybrids: 220 kW Alto Rabagão dam

in Portugal

• Floating solar/hydro hybrids at utility scale: LSS2 and Xe

Kaman 1 will be the prototypes
Lower Mekong Basin: High irradiance
Average annual insolation: 1,893 kWh/m2

12
Picture source: SolarGIS; Irradiance source: Meteonorm
Objective:
 The Challenge:

Present a “No-Dam” alternative comparable or superior to

Proposed Hydropower Projects with respect to relevant
decision factors for Governments and investors:

 Power Reliability
 Cost of Power Generation
 Power Output
 Timeline for Deployment
 Financial Risk Avoidance
13
 Reliability
Power grid operators care about:

1. Reliability of power to meet

demands as they occur

2. Cost of power

Photo source: http://beprojectidea.blogspot.com/2014/11/electrical-power-transmission-of- 14

bulk.html
Seasonal variability in hydropower
generation

Power production at Sambor Alternative 7A. The power production

follows the mainstream flow. During the wet season the reservoir spills
additional water into the Anabranch, increasing the flow above normal.
The operational rule keeps low water level at flow <20,000m3/s.
15
Estimated power production potential
by time of day and time of year
from solar PV arrays (total 10 km2 area)

80,000,0
00

50,000,0
00

10,000,0
00

Source: NREL SAM modeling tool for a 500MW installation. Bangkok meteorological data.
16
Example: Daily PV power fluctuations

• PV fluctuations on a sunny day (Series 1) and on a cloudy day (Series 2).

Fluctuations can be handled by AGC’s as HP adjustments.

• Short fluctuations <10MW and <8 sec are not handled by AGC’s at
LongYangXia, where such short fluctuations are not reported to be a problem.
17
Source: http://www.cat.com/en_US/articles/white-paper-hybrid-microgrids-the-time-is-now.html
 Complimentary PV and Hydro Operation

Longyangxia hydropower plant

 Commissioned in 1989
 Installed capacity: 1,280MW (4× 320MW)
 Electricity production: 5,942GWh/year
 Reservoir area: 380 km2
 Normal storage water level: 2600m; Dead water level: 2530m
 Regulation storage: 193.5×108m3

18
Complimentary PV and Hydro Operation

Complimentary operation:
 Solar PV is treated as an
additional non-adjustable unit
of hydropower station
 Automatic regulation of the
hydro output to balance solar
resource’ variability before
dispatching to the grid
龚传利，王英鑫，等，“龙羊峡水光互补自动发电控制策略及应用”，
水电站机电技术，Vol.37 No.3
19
Battery storage to counteract fluctuations due
to cloud cover
•May need additional battery storage to even out
fluctuations due to changes in cloud cover for facilities
with turbines with slower ramping rates.

20
Utility-scale battery systems
Cost reductions much faster than anticipated
Average Li-ion battery pack price will decrease by 50% by 2025, by 75%
by 2035 and 85% by 2050 in the base case

Source: ETIP PV (9/2018) in presentation by Eero Vartiainen, Fortum Growth 24.9.2018

Learning rate 20% 21
All prices in 2018 real euros
COST

22
Projection of CAPEX cost decline for
utility-scale floating PV

Source: Natural Heritage Institute, Dec. 2017. “Sambor Hydropower Dam Alternatives
Assessment. Volume 3: Solar Alternative to Sambor Dam.” (Figure 1—46).
 Capital Costs
“Total capital expenditures for turnkey FPV
installations in 2018 generally range
between $0.8-$1.2 per Wp.”
- Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore
Average Global Levelized Cost of New Electric
Generating Technologies in 2017
LCOE for 2017 USD $/MWh

Wind 45

Utility-scale Solar PV 50

Floating PV 56 50 MWp floating PV plant; fixed tilt, at 7%

discount rate.

Hydro 60
Median = 40 $/MWh

Nuclear 148

Coal 102

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

New hydro LCOE is 20-60 $/MWh depending on region; e.g. best sites in China are closer to 20 $/MWh.
Sources: Lazard, 2017 for wind, utility-scale solar PV, nuclear and coal; IRENA, 2018 for large hydro and World Bank Group, ESMAP
and SERIS, 2018 for floating PV.
 3 Most Important Determinants of
LCOE for Solar/Hydro Hybrids
1. Amount of solar irradiation

2. Capacity factor—[Avoidance of Curtailments]

3. Source of financing—[% Concessionary]

POWER OUTPUT

27
 ISSUE CONFRONTING POWER SECTOR PLANNERS
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
At any given time, what is the next least-cost option for
meeting the next increment of demand in the system
or export opportunity?

Answer Today: Best option may be to retrofit most

suitable hydro reservoir?

Answer Tomorrow: Best option may be to retrofit next

best hydro reservoir, as cost continues to decline?

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TIMELINE FOR DEPLOYMENT

29
Example 1: Utility-scale solar PV project

 Kamuthi Solar Power Project

 India
 648 MW, 10 km2
 Commission year: 2016
 Construction time: 8 months !
30
FINANCIAL RISK FACTORS

31
Advantage of Solar PV: Modular
 No scale economies – no need to build giant projects

 Can be built in small increments to match demand or

export opportunities in real time

 Much lower carrying time for debt service before

revenue generation

 Much easier to negotiate PPA and debt financing

 Eligibility for concessionary financing

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PRACTICAL ISSUES

33
 Comparisons of Floating vs. Land-Based Solar PV

ADVANTAGES: DISADVANTAGES:

1. Avoidance of land use 1. More costly (10-15%)

conflicts-community 2. Anchoring with variable
relocation, site preparation water levels
costs
3. Storm casualty (insurable
2. Efficiency Improvements— risk?)
evaporative cooling effect of
reservoir (10-15%)
3. Take advantage of existing
transmission capacity
4. Ease of cleaning (dust)
Dubious Environmental Considerations
for Floating Solar Arrays

• Effects of shading of water column in reservoir

• Reduced evaporation of reservoir water

• Decreased algae growth

Source: Solar Energy Institute of Singapore at the National University of Singapore. From
“Where Sun Meets Water: Floating Solar Market Report.” Executive Summary, Table 2, page
10. © 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
 Genuine Environmental Concern for Both
Floating and Ground-Mounted Hybrids

• More impactful daily flow distortions into the

downstream fishery due to more ramping of
turbine discharges ! ! !
Mitigation Strategies for Flow Distortions
1) Amelioration of flow distortions by inflow from larger
downstream tributary

2) Re-regulation barrage downstream of hydropower

project—[can be small: only needs to store one day of
turbine discharges]

2)

2)
 3. Pumped Storage
To enable more uniform discharges: use power in excess
of grid demands to pump water to upper reservoir,
generate power from releases from upper reservoir to
supplement power generation when needed to meet
grid demands
 Advantages of Co-Location vs.
Remote Integration
 Avoiding curtailments is key determinant of cost competitiveness

 Agility of turbine compensation key to avoiding curtailments during

intermittent cloudiness

 Strong advantage to single control station in systems without advanced

ISO

Photo of an island of solar panels floats in

a pond at the Los Bronces mining plant.
Photo courtesy of Associated Press, 2019
Complimentary PV and Hydro Operation

Complimentary operation:
 Solar PV is treated as an
additional non-adjustable unit
of hydropower station
 Automatic regulation of the
hydro output to balance solar
resource’ variability before
dispatching to the grid
龚传利，王英鑫，等，“龙羊峡水光互补自动发电控制策略及应用”，
水电站机电技术，Vol.37 No.3
41
 RAPID ASSESSMENT TOOL
TO IDENTIFYEXISTING HYDROPOWER RESERVOIRS
MOST SUITABLE FOR SOLAR RETROFIT

THERE ARE >5,000 MAJOR* SINGLE PURPOSE HYDROPOWER

RESERVOIRS NOW IN OPERATION AROUND THE WORLD

* Height > 15 metres, impounding > than 3 mcm [ICOLD]

Hybrid hydro & floating solar PV system

at Rabagao Dam in Montelegre,
Portugal. Photo: Ciel & Tierre?
 Objective
Accelerate adoption of this innovation in countries
and power systems not already pursuing it.

URGENT: Because once a commitment is made to

construct a new power plant, that facility will become a
permanent part of the built environment and its
impacts will last for generations.
STAGE ONE: BUILD THE RAPID ASSESSMENT TOOL
Three factors of a hydropower reservoir and its related grid
system will be assessed (threshold values TBD):

1. Location: solar irradiance >2000 kWH/m2 = long-term annual

average globally.
Result = Screen out reservoirs:
• in higher latitudes
• that experience extensive cloud cover such as those in headwaters
2. Reservoir/powerhouse characteristics:

 Purpose of the reservoir

[Single-purpose hydropower reservoirs have more operational flexibility.]
 Geometry and surface area of reservoir
[Screens out smaller and deeper reservoirs such as those in headwaters.]

3MW floating photovoltaic power plant on Jipyeong Reservoir, Sangju City, Gyeongsang Bukdo Province. KOREA. Photo source: LG CNS.
2. Reservoir/powerhouse characteristics
continued:

 Storage vs. discharge ratio

[At least daily storage during all seasons. Screens out diversion-style hydro-
power projects such are built in smaller tributaries in upper catchments]

 Installed capacity of the hydropower plant

[Generally, bigger is better.]
2. Reservoir/powerhouse characteristics
continued:

 Number of turbines and ramp rates

[E.g., Francis Turbines generally better than horizontal bulb turbines]

 Plans for upgrades and modernization?

[Upgraded turbines can react more quickly to changes in solar PV
output]

 Ability to re-regulate daily surges in discharge

[E.g., through pumped storage or downstream re-regulation barrage]
3. Characteristics of the power grid:
 Excess transmission capacity.
[The more, the better.]

 Ratio of total hydro + solar capacity to total grid

capacity.
[The larger and more interconnected the grid, the more flexibility it is
likely to have to accommodate the intermittency of the solar power
output]

Photo source: Beprojectidea.blogspot.com, 2014.

STAGE TWO: CONSULTATIONS WITH RESERVOIR
OWNERS & GRID OPERATORS

 Some of the necessary data can only be obtained

from the hydropower operator directly (such as
characteristics of installed turbines and their ramp
rates).
 Realistically, only the current owners and operators
of the reservoirs can retrofit them with solar
panels, and this will only be practical if the grid
system operator is willing to integrate the solar
power.
STAGE THREE: APPLY THE TOOL

3 steps:

1) Coarse initial screening using threshold values that will sort

the existing reservoirs into two categories:

• “Likely feasible”: Further analysis warranted

• “Likely infeasible”: No further analysis warranted

Expect false positives and negatives

The best prospects will often be the large storage reservoirs in

the lower reaches of the basin that are connected to large
national or regional grid systems.
2) Group the “likely feasible” within their grid system

3) Rank relative suitability with each such system by applying

scales and weights for each of the factors.

This will provide an “opportunities” list for the downstream stages of the
assessment project.

Floating solar project on the

Yamakura Dam reservoir in
Japan. Photo by Kyocera Corp.
For more information, or to request NHI’s project reports, send a
request to jessnagtalon@n-h-i.org
or download from website: www.n-h-i.org