Syria and it’S criSeS

Past, present and future

Contents

• Introduction
• Middle east and global politics
• Nature and origin of present crisis
• Global and regional powers interests
• Likely scenarios
• Way forward
• Conclusion
Introduction

• What is happening in Syria is a snapshot of what is happening in

Middle East as a whole.
• Several conflicts,crises and wars presently going on in Syria with deep
rooted causes have serious implications for regional stability and global
security.
• This presentation explains the nature, background and possible future
scenarios of the present Syrian crises and their likely repercussions.
Middle East and Geopolitics

• Middle East, is the cradle of several civilizations and birth place of

three world religions.
• Before discovery of oil,it was not considered worth occupation. It’s
political significance started with the construction of Suez Canal,
discovery of oil, creation of the Zionist State of Israel and escalation
of the Cold War.
Middle east- six fault lines

• Location: Whatever happens anywhere affect Middle East more than any region.
Similarly whatever happens here affects the global politics.
• Boundaries: Cartographic blunders of the colonial powers creating arbitrary nation-
states with artificial boundaries containing divided loyalties.
• Resources: Discovery of oil and building of Suez Canal increasing in geo-economic
and geo-political significance.
• Ideologies: Creation of Israel and onset of cold war, which introduced ideological
conflicts other than religion, making it the playground of the global powers.
• Modernization: Modernization and globalisation, stocking the aspiration of the
middle class without providing them adequate channels of expression nad
empowerment in countries historically governed by authoritarian elites.
• Underdevelopment: Overall sociopolitical and economic underdevelopment in the
backdrop of rapidly increasing population and unemployment,stalled state building
and nation building- a legacy of the colonialism and neo colonialism.
Syria- Geography

• Modern Syria(Syrian Arab Republic),with a total land mass of more than 185,000 sq
km is a part of ancient Syria, located at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea in
southwestern Asia.
• It borders with Turkey(north), Iraq(east), Jordan(south) and Israel/Lebanon(west).
• Around 1000 sq km of Syrian territory in Golan Heights is under Israeli occupation.
Part of this annexed territory is claimed by Lebanon.
• Hatay province, currently known as Iskenderun, is under Turkish suzerainty, awarded
to Turkey by the French occupation forces. Syria does not recognize this occupation.
• There are two main rivers whose water apportionment is a bone or contention
between Turkey and Syria on the one hand and between Syria and Israel on the other.
Syria- the Geopolitics
Syria- ancient history

• Because of its strategic location, Syria has been scene of interval conflicts and
external invasions throughout history.
• It can boast if giving alphabets to the world and home of the oldest Semetic
language- Aramaic.
• Akkadians have it the cultural foundations and racial stock- the first
dimension of the present crisis.
• Romans introduced the authoritarian governance structure, improved by the
Ottomans- second dimension of the crises.
• Crusades sowed the first seeds of Arab nationalism, the defining feature of
modern day Middle East.
• Islamic conquest introduced three crucial elements- religion, sects and
language- the third dimension of the present crises.
Syria- modern history

• Ottoman rule resulted in creating the nationalistic feelings in hitherto

diverse communities and invited,by default, the penetration of
European colonial powers- the fourth dimension of the crises.
• Colonial era gave it the boundaries as well as the oppresive, extractive
state apparatus- the fifth dimension of the crises.
• Post colonial era introduced cold war power politics, ideological
conflicts other than religion, resource scramble and non- state violent
actors.
Syria- social profile

• Syrian population of 25 million growing @2.2% per annum is creating a huge

educated and informed youth bulge, thanks to the compulsory primary
education and spread of computer literacy.
• Life expectancy at 70 years and a literacy rate of above 70% make it a fairly
modern country.
• Racially,90% of population is of Arab origin,9% are Kurds and remaining are
Armenians, Turkmans and others.
• Sectarian/religious divide- 75% are Sunni Muslims, 12% are Also Shias, 10%
Christians and 3% are Jews, Druze and others.
• Arabic, the offical language is mother tongue of the majority whole English
and French are unferstood by the urbanites.
Syria- political profile

• Republic in name, authoritarian in substance, Syria is a microcosm of overall

Middle Eastern governance style.
• Heavy dominance of armed forces and security agencies in policy
formulation and implementation.
• These institutions have over representation of Alawi Shias who are only 12%
of population.
• Limited powers of 250 members of strong uni-chamber legislature, elected by
universal suffrage of 18 years.
• Centralised governance structure with one party rule although 08 parts are
represented in National Alliance.
• Freedom of expression if you do not speak against the government.
Present crises- origins

• 1967 War, when Israel finally established its supremacy in the Middle East,
annexed vast Arab territories including Golan Heights and displaced millions
of Palestinians from their homeland,can be conveniently taken as the starting
point of origins of present Syrian crises.
• 1973 war resulted in Egypt and Jordan concluding seperate peace treaties,
isolating Syria which blamed Egypt for treachery and vowed to continue the
struggle against Israeli hegemony.
• It also exposed the vulnerability of US and its allies in terms of their
overdependence on Middle East oil and necessitated establishing Israel as a
regional power, protecting friendly Arab states and ousting USSR as one of
the active players in ME- main drivers of present crises.
Present crises- origins

• Fall of Shah of Iran and the rise of anti American ruling elite in Iran with
threats of exporting Anto Arab version of Islam added another dimension to
the jigsaw puzzle.
• It became more complicated by the rise of Tabliban in Afghanistan after the
withdrawal of USSR and concentration of anti west militants here.
• Fall of Saddam and of Taliban in Afghanistan resulted in an unintended but
crucial consequence- emergence of Iran as one of the regional powers and the
main rivalnof Israel in the Middle East to challenge American hegemony.
• It was decided by USA and her allies that before sorting out Iran, it is
necessary to fix its allies namely Syria and Hezbollah which may pose any
threat to Israel when the final assault is made of nuclear ambitious Iran.
7 dimensions of Syrian crises

• Ideological Clash: Wider global ideological Clash between capitalism and Anto
capitalist forces.
• Regional Hegemony: War among aspirants of regional hegemony using different
factions as proxies.
• Arab Spring: Public aspirations for good governance, employment and better quality
of life.
• New Cold War: Among two old power blocks with China as new entrant.
• Resource Scramble: Scramble for water, hydrocarbon and other resources.
• Ethno-religious Conflicts: Centuries old ethnic, religious and sectarian conflicts
adding feul to the fire by the non state violent actors.
• Nationalism: Nationalistic aspirations of suppressed and divided communities for
self determination.
 Present situation

• Assad dug in with the help of internal tribal alliances,armed forces and
security apparatus support within Syria.
• Externally, propped up due to diplomatic assistance by China which don not
want to repeat the Libyan flasco whole Russia is providing full support to
Assad- intelligence, weapons and finance.
• Iran- physical support through Hamas and Hezbollah, weapons and finances
and intelligence, encouraging Kurds to outflank Turkey
• Russia, China and Iran are interested to prolong the fighting, necessitating
attack by NATO forces as it will give them some respite from American
machinations in their respective spheres of influence and control as well as
draining out USA energy.
Present situation

• USA and its allies are not interested in sending their troops in Syria as
it will result in full scale war which may not them down for a year or
so, delaying their ultimate aim of fixing Iran.
• Third War front against an Arab state will not go well with their allies
in Middle East, turning many of the footloose Jihadists against NATO
foeces, instead of their cooperation in war against Iran.
• USA is trying to oust Assad by supporting rebels i.e. Foreign forces,
state as well as non-state, from every source by providing intelligence,
weapons and finance, preparing for all out attack once the regime shoes
signs of weakness, UNO or no UNO.
Possible scenarios

• Stalemate: business as usual, more of the same.

• Violent Overthrow of Assad: regime by the rebels with the help of
foreign forces.
• Voluntary abdiction of Assad: as a result of UNO or friendly selloff
by Russia/Iran.
• Last scenario is now becoming a reality as USA and her allies will
give concessions to Russia on Ukraine after Russian open support to
Assad.
Way forward

• Negotiated settlement through the auspicious of UNO and backed by

regional and global powers.
• Withdrawal of all foreign forces, disbanding of armed groups and destruction
of chemical weapons.
• Voluntary abdiction of Assad and formation of an interim government to
suitably amend the constitution.
• Holding of elections by independent election commission supervised by the
international observers.
• Launching of Marshall Plan style development package to rehabilitate the
economy.
• Start of comprehensive Middle East peace package.
Conclusion

• Syria’s social composition, economic underdevelopment and political governance in

the backdrop of regional alignments is the root cause of present crises.
• These have been aggravated by the onslaught of Arab Spring, Iranian ambitions for
nuclear parity with Israel and resource scramble.
• There is an urgent need to amicably solve the Syrian crises by the world powers as the
situation is getting out of control.
• Regime change by force will result in state collapse by default, resulting in civil War
which will invite regional powers and may result in full scale war and ultimately
Balkanization of the county ehcih is already showing signs of tearing at the seams.
• Rssiltsnt economic mayhem, social unrest, capital flight, brain drain and flood of
internally displaced refugees will make the situation even worse.
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