A

presentation

on

Rainfall Analysis for Crop Management Planning for

Solapur District in Scarcity Zone of Western Maharashtra.

presented by
Janhavi Kishor Joshi
(2017/12)

Under the guidance of

S. K. Upadhye
Assistant Professor
Zonal Agricultural Research Station, Solapur,
MPKV, Rahuri.
 Advisory Committee
S. K. Upadhye
Guide and Assistant Professor
Zonal Agricultural Research Station, Solapur,
MPKV, Rahuri.

Dr. R. D. Bansod Dr. A. A. Atre

Professor and Head, Associate Professor,
Dept. of SWCE, Dept. of SWCE,
M.P.K.V., Rahuri. M.P.K.V., Rahuri.

Dr. C. A. Nimbalkar
Associate Professor of Statistics
Department of Statistics,
M. P.K.V., Rahuri.
 INTRODUCTION
Global warming :
 Affect on regional and continental rainfall patterns
 Vast areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern India and South- East
Asia are becoming dryer (Groisman et al. 2005; Kharin et al. 2005;)

Changes in precipitation patterns :

 Effects on ecosystems
 Agriculture
 Human regions

Indian scenerio :
 South-west monsoon rainfall (June–September).
 First among the countries that practice rain fed Agriculture both in
terms of extent (86 M ha) and value of production
(Srinivasa Rao et al.,2015).
Long-term rainfall data and rainfall trend :
 Economic development
 Hydrological planning for the country.
 Sustainable agriculture water management
 Crop planning for drought-prone areas (Tetty M. et al. 2017).
 Formulation of weather model
 Improve productivity and quality of crop yield

Aspects of rainfall :
 Rain that can be expected at specified probability levels
 Dry spell analysis and risk of dry spells
 Scientific prediction of wet and dry week.

Solapur :
 Average annual rainfall is 584 mm.
 The average number of rainy days is 38.65
 Drought prone zone (semi-arid).
 Poor spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall.
 Inadequate water hammering on agricultural landscape.
 OBJECTIVES
1. To determine statistical characteristics and
trends annual, seasonal, monthly, weekly rainfall.

2. To determine probabilities of dry and wet weeks

by using Markov-chain model.

3. To suggest crop management planning based on

rainfall analysis.
NEED OF THE STUDY :
 For water resource management
 For crop planning
 As Government for policy planning
 Agricultural purpose
 Structural design
BENEFICIARY :
 Farmers
 Climatologist
 State and District agriculture and water sectors,
 Disaster Managers
 Hydrological planners and Researchers,
 Government Officials etc.
 Students
REVIEWS OF LITERATURE :
On following study areas :
1. Studies on rainfall trends
2. Studies on probabilities of dry and wet weeks by
using Markov-chain model.
3. Studies on crop management planning based on
rainfall analysis.
Studies on rainfall trends :
Vijay Kumar et al. (2010)
Monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall using Mann-Kendall method
for data series of 135 years (1871–2005) for 30 sub-divisions (sub-regions) in
India are carried out. Half of the sub-divisions showed an increasing trend in
annual rainfall, but for only three (Haryana, Punjab and Coastal Karnataka),
this trend was statistically significant. Similarly, only one sub-division
(Chattisgarh) indicated a significant decreasing trend out of the 15 sub-
divisions showing decreasing trend in annual rainfall. Annual and monsoon
rainfall decreased, while pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall
increased at the national scale. Rainfall in June, July and September
decreased, whereas in August it increased, at the national scale.
Atre and Deore (2013)
Did an investigation to identify trends in rainfall time series of Rahuri station
in the Scarcity zone of Maharashtra. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test
was applied to detect monotonic trends in weekly rainfall. It was observed
that the rainfall series shows a rising trend in 36th week only. There was a
decreasing trend during 1st to 21st, 23rd, 28th, 29th, and 42nd to 52nd week. Most
of the weeks during monsoon season i.e., 22nd, 24th to 27th, 30th to 35th and 37th
to 41st weeks have shown no trend. Thus, the monsoon rainfall at Rahuri in
Scarcity zone of Maharashtra has no trend.
Deshmukh and Lunge (2013)
Analysed the trends of maximum rainfall and rainy days are analysed for Akola
district in Vidarbha, India. The decreasing trends in TMRF, TMRF(J-S), RD, RD(J-
S) is observed and is confirmed by Mann-Kendall trend test. It is observed that
annual TMRF decreased by 199.888 mm during the last 31 years in Akola district.
Rainfall and rain days data during period 1975 to 2005 obtained from Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune were analysed. It is observed that total
month rainfall and total month rainfall in the rainy season and number of rainy
days shows decreasing trend in Akola district.

Upadhye et al.(2016)
Focused on detecting trends in rainfall and rainy days for the Akola District in
Vidarbha Region of Maharashtra State. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test
was applied to detect trends in annual, seasonal, monthly and weekly rainfall and
rainy days.It was observed that the annual, south-west monsoon season, August
and December months and meteorological week No.16 and 36 showed decreasing
trend.There was no trend in annual and seasonal rainy days whereas December
month and meteorological week No.32 showed decreasing trend and
meteorological week No.36 showed increasing trend.
Studies on probabilities of dry and wet weeks by using Markov-chain model.
Reddy et al. (2008)
Used Markov Chain Model to study spell distribution. They carried it to find the
probabilities of occurrence of dry and wet weeks weekly analysis of rainfall for Bangalore
region. The average annual rainfall of GKVK campus, Bangalore was found to be 923.9 mm
and coefficient of variation (CV) of 25.4 per cent. The data on onset and withdrawal of rainy
season indicated that the monsoon starts effectively from 24th SMW (11-17th June) and
remains active up to 45th SMW (5-11th November). During rainy season the probability of
occurrence of wet week is more than 35per cent except during 25th- 27th SMW and 44th - 48th
SMW. The mean weekly rainfall is found to be more than 40 mm during 36th - 41th SMW and
found to be less than 20 mm during 20th SMW, 25th - 27th SMW and 44th - 48th SMW.

Dabral et al. (2014)

Analysed 24 years weekly rainfall data to forecast dry and wet spell analysis using Markov
chain model for North Lakhimpur (Assam), India. The results indicated that probability of
occurrence of dry week is higher from week 1st to 14th and also from week 41st to 52nd. The
range of probability of occurrence of dry week in these weeks varies from 41.67 per cent to
100 per cent. Probability of occurrence of wet week is higher from week 17th to 40th. The range
of probability of wet week in these weeks varies from 66.67 per cent to 100 per cent. Week 1st
to 4th and 43rd to 52nd of the year remains under stress on an average, as there are 50 per cent
to 95.83 per cent chances of occurrence of two consecutive dry weeks. The analysis showed
that monsoon starts effectively from week 23rd (4th June to 10th June) in North Lakhimpur.
Singh et al. (2014)
Used Markov Chain Model to know the dry and wet spell distribution at Varanasi. The
average annual rainfall over BHU campus, Varanasi was found to be 1006.5 mm with
CV of 20.7 per cent. The data on onset and withdrawal of rainy season indicated that
the monsoon starts effectively from 25th SMW (18th –24th June) and remains active up
to 39th SMW (24th –30th September). During rainy season the probability of occurrence
of wet week is 40 perent except during 24th SMW. During rainy season the mean
weekly rainfall is found to be highest (about 80.0 mm) during 29th SMW (16th –22th
July) and more than 40 mm during 26th –39th SMW and found to be 20 mm during
entire rainy season (11th June–30th September) including 24th and 25th SMW.

Tettey et al. (2017)

Worked on an objective of rainfall pattern assessment through Markov chain analysis
using daily rainfall data from 1980 to 2010, a period of 30 years, for five cities along the
south eastern coastal belt of Ghana; Cape Coast, Accra, Akuse, Akatsi and Keta.
Transition matrices were computed for each town and each month using the
conditional probability of rain or no rain on a particular day given that it rained or did
not rain on the previous day. It was found that, the rainy or dry season pattern
observed using the monthly steady state rainfall vectors tended to reflect the monthly
rainfall time series trajectory. Overall, the probability of rain on any day was low to
average: Keta 0.227, Akuse 0.382, Accra 0.467, Cape Coast, 0.50 and Akatsi 0.50. In
particular, for Accra, the rainy season was observed to be in the months of May to June
and September to October
Studies on crop management planning based on rainfall analysis.
Hazari et al. (1992)
Analysed the rainfall data of 11 years (1978-1988) at MPKV, Rahuri, Dist. Ahmednagar. Daily
rainfall data were converted into weekly, monthly, seasonal, annual rainfall. Weekly data of
rainfall were found to be more useful for planning of crop management programme. The weekly
rainfall of 10 per cent, 50 per cent, and 70 per cent probability of exceedence was computed. At 50
per cent chance rainfall various drought resistant crops like sorghum, pearlmillet, sunflower,
green gram, black gram and red gram can be grown.

Subash et al.(2009)
Employed Markov chain model to know the initial and conditional probability of having a dry or
a wet week and also the occurrence of consecutive dry or wet periods of 2 or 3 weeks for selected
stations of Bihar. The initial probability of occurrence of dry week is high (more than 60 per cent)
upto 23rd standard meteorological week for zones-I, IIIA and IIIB while it is upto 18th week for
zone-II. The probability occurrence of two consecutive wet weeks is high (more than 60 per cent)
from 28th to 34th weeks, but it is fluctuating and in the case of probability of occurrence of three
consecutive weeks, it is never above 60 per cent even in the peak monsoon months of July and
August for zone-I. However, the probability occurrence of three consecutive wet weeks is high
(more than 50 per cent) during the 29th week only and all other weeks between 26th to 39th weeks
are below 50 per cent for zone-IIIA. Based on the rainfall pattern and its distribution, different
crop management strategies as well as remedies are suggested to explore maximum rainfall
received during the season to maximize the production and minimize the existing gap between
the potential and actual production.
Bhadoria et al. (2013)
Examined rainfall data of 29 years (1981-2009) recorded at RVSKVV, Zonal Agricultural
Research Station Morena, Madhya Pradesh for long term averages of annual, seasonal,
monthly, and weekly rainfall and its temporal variability. The season-wise per cent
contribution of annual rainfall was 3.7, 7.9 and 88.4 per cent of summer, rabi and Kharif
seasons, respectively. Within the rainy season, August was the highest rainfall contributing
month (33.4 per cent) followed by July (28.9 per cent) mean weakly, precipitation amount
and its assurance reaches the peak (>50mm/week) during 26th SMW (Standard
Meteorological Week) to 38th SMW and again declined thereafter. The earliest onset of rainy
season occurred in 24th SMW. Rain water if harvested from July to September which can be
utilized as crop saving irrigation as well as pre-sowing irrigation for succeeding Rabi crops
which are generally sown on residual soil moisture.
Ghosh et al. (2014)
Analysed daily rainfall data of 12 years (1981-1992) recorded at R.R.S.S., B.C.K.V.,
Raghunathpur , Purulia, West Bengal, India for determining annual, seasonal, monthly and
weekly rainfall averages of the region, compared with corresponding values of 5 years (2003-
2007). Mean rainfall for pre-kharip, kharip and rabi season were 106.6 mm (9.22 per cent),
1010.7 mm (87.43 per cent) and 38.7 mm (3.35 per cent), respectively. The changes in rainfall
pattern between 1981-1992 and 2003-2007 were very little during pre kharip (-1.7per cent)
and kharip (+1.0 per cent) seasons, but moderate during rabi season (-22.7per cent). Mid
season drought was likely to occur during 33rd -34th SMW and terminal droughts during 37-
40 th SMWs at <10 and 10-25 per cent probability levels, respectively. Rice , maize, arhar
were crop in the region during kharip season , while short duration pulses, oilseeds and
wheat could be grown with residual soil moisture and live-saving irrigations during rabi
season.
MATERIAL
AND
METHODS
 STUDY AREA
District Solapur
Tahsil (11) Akkalkot, Barshi, Madha, Mangalvesha, Malshiras,
Mohol, Karmala, Pandharpur, Sangola, Solapur(North),
Solapur(South)
Lattitude 17.10° to 18.32° N
Longitude 74.42° to 76.15°E
Total Geographical Area 14,845 km 2 (1501 thousand hectares)

AAR 584mm
ARD 45.4
Avg. Max. Temperature 33.80
Avg. Min. Temperature 20.90
Major Kharip crops Bajra, Sunflower, Redgram, Groundnut , Horsegram,
Mothbean and Blackgram
Major Rabi crops rabi Jowar, Safflower, Gram
Major Irrigated Crops Sugarcane, Sunflower, Wheat & summer ,Groundnut
Location map of stations under study
 STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS

 Mean : n
1
m 
n
X
i 1
i

 Standard Deviation (SD) :

n
1x ( P  P)
i 1
S .D. 
n
 Coefficient of variation :

S .D.
CV (%)  x100
m
 Mann-Kendall test (M-K)

Where
x1, x2, … xn - n data points.
xj - data point at time j.
xk - data point at time k.
Where,
q - Number of tied groups,
tp - Number of data values in the pth group.

The standard test statistic Z was computed as

 A positive/negative value of Z indicates an Increasing

/decreasing trend.
 Significance Levels of M-K Test
Critical values for Z statistic and their significance levels are presented in
the Following table :

Confidence Level Critical Value of Z Notation

90% 1.64 *

95% 1.96 **

99% 2.54 ***

 Sen’s slope test
f(t) = Qt + B
Where,
Qt - Slope
B - Constant.
Slopes of all data pairs was calculated

If there was n values xj in the time series then N = n(n-1)/2 slope estimates Qt.
Slope is the median of these N values of Qt. The N values of Qt was ranked from the
smallest to the largest and the Sen’s estimator is

MAKESENS Excel template will be for trend analysis

Markov Chain Probability Model For Dry And Wet
Spell Analysis
1. Initial probability

P(D) = F(D)/N
P(W) = F(W)/N
where,
P(D) = probability of the week being dry,
F(D) = frequency of dry weeks,
P(W) = probability of the week being wet,
F(W) = frequency of wet weeks, and
N = total number of years of data being used.
2. Conditional probabilities
P(DD) = F(DD)/F(D)
P(WW) = F(WW)/F(W)
P(WD) = 1-P(DD)
P(DW) = 1-P(WW)
where,
P(DD) = probability of a week being dry preceded by another
dry week,
F(DD) = frequency of dry week preceded by another dry week,
P(WW) = probability of a week being wet preceded by another
wet week,
F(WW) = frequency of a wet week preceded by another wet
week,
P(WD) = probability of a wet week preceded by a dry week, and
P(DW) = probability of a dry week preceded by a wet week.
3. Consecutive dry and wet week probabilities:
P(2D) = P(DW1)×P(DDW2)
P(3D) = P(DW1)×P(DDW2)×P(DDW3)
P(2W) = P(WW1)×P(WWW2)
P(3W) = P(WW1)×P(WWW2)×P(WWW3)
where,
P(2D) = probability of 2 consecutive dry weeks starting with the week,
P(DW1) = probability of the first week being dry,
P(DDW2) = probability of the second week being dry, given the preceding
week
being dry,
P(3D) = probability of 3 consecutive dry weeks starting with the week,
P(DDW3) = probability of the third week being dry, given the preceding
week dry,
P(2W) = probability of 2 consecutive dry weeks starting with the week,
P(WW1) = probability of the first week being wet,
P(WWW2) = probability of the 2ndweek being wet, given the preceding week
being wet,
P(3W) = probability of 3 consecutive wet weeks starting with the week
and
P(WWW3) = probability of the third week being wet, given the preceding
week wet.
 MARKOV - CHAIN MODEL

The model assumes that the transition probability for a given week
depends as the weather (dry or wet) of its previous week.

P (Wi) = 1 – P(Di)
P (Wi/ Di-1) = 1 - P (Di /Di-1)
p( Di )  P( Di 1 ) P( Di / Di 1 )
P (Di/ Wi-1) =
P(Wi 1 )

and P (Wi / Wi-1) = 1 - P (Di/ Wi-1)

Where,
P (Di/Wi-1)= transition probability that ith week is dry given
that (i-1)th week is wet and the other definitions
automatically follow.
The initial probability the ith week of a year is dry, P (Di)
The transition probability of ith week that it is dry provided previous week
is dry, P (Di/Di-1),
 Data Required
Period
Site Frequenc
Sr. No Tahasil District Data Type
Name y of Data From To
1 Akkalkot, Solapur Rainfall Daily
2 Barshi Solapur Rainfall Daily
3 Madha Solapur Rainfall Daily
4 Mangalvedha Solapur Rainfall Daily

5 Mashira Solapur Rainfall Daily

6 Mohol Solapur Rainfall Daily
7 Karmala Solapur Rainfall Daily
8 Pandharpur Solapur Rainfall Daily
9 Sangola Solapur Rainfall Daily
10 Solapur Solapur Rainfall Daily
(North)
11 Solapur Solapur Rainfall Daily
(South)
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Website KVK ,Solapur : (http://www.kvksolapur.org/district-profile.php)
Thank You…!!!