Linking drylands and

climate change to
poverty in Uzbekistan
Latif Norov,
Center for Economic Research
Tashkent, Uzbekistan

The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views
or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB
does not guarantee the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data,
finding, interpretation, advice, opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.
 Major policy trends
• Market solutions for agricultural reforms, food
security and household’s incomes
o Reshaping of agricultural output mix and massive investments
in modern agricultural technologies
o Establishment of dehkan farms which plays significant role in
production of fruits, vegetables, poultry and livestock
o Establishment of private farmers which are to play major role in
increasing productivity in agriculture and ensure concentration
of capital in agricultural sector
• Structural reforms and industrialization for higher
economic growth and productive employment
o Establishment of new sector and renovating existing; linking
large, medium and small businesses into production chains
o Supporting export and stimulating import of industrial goods
(equipment and technologies)
o Creating new jobs in non-agricultural sectors (industry and
services)
Key environmental implications
 Scarcity of land and water resources:
o 70% of land is not suitable for agricultural production
o Water limitations related to (i) natural reduction of flow, (ii) extensive use of
water for irrigation
 Cost-expensive Infrastructure: for private farmers soviet type
drainage and channel system is low effective in terms of
 High water waist, and
 Expensive to maintain
 Food security:
 Small dehkan farmers producing 70% of gross agricultural output are the most
effected
 Current pattern of food consumption provoke health problems
 High population growth rates
o Limited land and water resources causes limited employment and income
generation sources in rural areas
o Growing population requests increase in food production: higher productivity
of agricultural production is needed
 Aral Sea disaster: first Climate change catastrophe in the world
 Poverty estimates

Rural poverty have been decreasing steadily following the national trend. At
the same time the rate of decline is relatively low – 3.4% for 2001-2007.
During this period, the overall poverty decreased by 3.9%, while the urban
poverty – by4.9%
 Demographic trends

• Uzbekistan’s population is expected to be around 33.22 mln by 2025

• If the current ratio of rural and urban population is preserved by 2025 rural and
urban population will constitute 22.2 mln and 11.02 mln respectively
• Uzbekistan will face the challenge of much higher labor surplus in rural areas, 7
mln by 2025
• This will lead to unemployment and decrease in the incomes and living
 Access to water and land
• Uzbekistan is likely to face a deficit of water and land
resources in the foreseeable future
• Out of 56 billion cubic meters of water consumption, 53.5
billion cubic meters (over 90%) are used for agricultural
needs, 2.5 billion  (4.3%) are used for industrial production,
and 2.5 billion (4.4%) – for the needs of the population
• If such intensive use of water resources for agriculture
remains, the water deficit will tend to grow thus hampering
agricultural development and consequently the possibilities
for increasing incomes of the rural population
• The population growth rate is much higher than the growth
of the irrigated land areas. As a result, during the past 20
years the area of irrigated land has reduced from 0.25 to
0.16 hectares per capita, and this trend will continue
 Demography and access to
land

Population and land distribution across regions of Uzbekistan is unequal,

thus enhancing additional burden in several regions
Access to land is much higher in areas with higher degradation of land
resources
Land degradation – Saline
soil (%)
 Land degradation
• Share of quality and high-quality lands (above 61 ball- bonitet)
constitutes only 27.3% of total square of agricultural lands. For
example, in Karakalpakstan such lands accounts only 7.5%, in
Kashkadarya region – 18.7%
• Around 25 % of agricultural land are estimated as below average and
low quality (less than 41 ball-bonitet). Karakalpakstan (64.6%),
Bukhara (32.2%) and Navoiy (28.4%) regions accounts the biggest
share of low quality lands
• Lands with low ball-bonitet are less productive and requires more
resources and investments
• The main factor of land degradation is salinization of soil. As of
beginning of 2008 around 50.2% of all irrigated lands were estimated
as saline, including 7.3% as highly saline
• Most vulnerable regions are Karakalpakstan, Jizzak, Navoi, Bukhara,
Khorezm , Syrdarya, Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya regions
Poverty estimates
Food Production (1)
Food Production (2)
 Drought and Prices
Years Rice Flour Meat Milk Eggs Butter Veg. Carrot Onion Potato
Oil

1997 116,1 125,0 185,6 177,8 117,2 167,8 209,0 171,4 162,5 104,2

1998 155,4 142,9 128,7 121,9 102,0 123,5 151,6 125,0 384,6 204,0

1999 243,6 172,0 196,7 161,5 201,4 239,3 135,1 153,3 42,0 182,4

2000 119,9 158,1 137,7 166,7 129,1 113,4 155,9 221,7 661,9 91,4

2001 185,4 144,1 162,2 172,4 164,0 171,1 156,7 94,1 45,3 220,0

2002 108,0 118,9 143,2 122,7 100,1 111,3 128,2 200,0 195,2 153,5

2003 70,4 114,2 98,2 96,4 90,3 101,1 109,5 83,3 96,7 64,1

2004 107,0 126,3 108,0 104,7 119,7 104,6 101,1 126,3 100,0 71,2

2005 165,8 99,7 127,6 110,7 117,7 109,0 98,8 114,9 113,4 271,8

2006 119,4 110,4 125,3 111,7 106,1 104,5 104,2 129,3 165,9 128,9

2007 98,5 176,2 130,4 153,4 137,9 136,0 156,2 138,0 94,2 98,7

2008 334,7 146,2 133,0 157,6 151,4 161,1 131,0 140,1 364,9 139,3

2009 71,2 91,4 108,1 115,5 88,2 108,5 90,5 90,0 52,7 93,7
 Climate change impact Изменение среднегодовой температуры по Узбекистану
2.00

1.50
Change in average annual temperature in
• Statistically significant

от нормы
1.00
Uzbekistan
rise of air temperature 0.50

from
0.00
throughout Uzbekistan

отклонение
-0.50

Digression
• Increasing number of -1.00

hot days -1.50

norm
•
-2.00
Decreasing number of -2.50

low temperature days

1989

1993

1997
1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

2001

2005
from 1950s 0.29°С within a decade

×èñëî äí åé
20

• Changing number of ×èì áàé

2 times in the Aral Sea Area Chimba Í óêóñ
Nukus
days with air 15 y
temperature over 40°С
in the Aral Sea Area 10

• According to last
available estimates, 5

direct and indirect loss

in agriculture constitute 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
USD 58 mln
 Climate change challenges
• Reduction of precipitations, excessive
evaporation of water (up to 18% of more losses)
• Worsened health caused by
– increased number of hot days
– poorer quality of the agricultural goods
• Tougher burden on the public utilities due to
greater temperature gaps and severe weather
conditions
Recommendations – in Short-
term
• To strengthen the regional cooperation in Central Asia
ensuring the current water volume to support
agricultural production and stable potable water for
population
• To enhance current and create new institutions to
support small agricultural producers (dehkan farmers
and private land plots) in access to markets and
protect from external environmental and economic
shocks
• To realize more effective social security system in
regions with higher environmental degradation:
targeting to creation of additional employment and
income generation sources, food security and health
 Recommendations – in
Long-run
1. Industrialization and urbanization
1.1. Increase Industrial production in GDP, diversification thru
creation and support of new/emerging industrial sectors
1.2. Expansion of employment in industry and services
• Increase/improve labor productivity
• Increase value-added thru processing
1.3. Create enabling environment for absorbing excessive labor
force from rural to urban areas (small, medium and large cities)
• Urban infrastructure development
• Better access to affordable housing
• Better conditions for education, vocational training and skills
upgrade
 Recommendations – in
Long-run
2. Agricultural sector development
2.1. Merging agricultural producers (farmers)
• Capital concentration/consolidation and attraction of new
technologies
• Diversification of agricultural production and increase of
productivity
• Further development of financial mechanisms and
introduction of new credit packages to invest into irrigation
and drainage, as well as improve land reclamation
2.2. Effective water use and decreasing consumption
• Modernization of infrastructure
• Irrigation infrastructure development to better regulation of
water resources
• Sustainable and effective water management institutions
(Water-Users Association)
 Recommendations – in
Long-run
3. Climate change adaptation
• Formulation and introduction of the alternative water-
saving agro-technologies and crops, more resistant and
adopted to the new climate and natural conditions as well
as water accumulation technologies
• Strengthening measures on early diagnostics, prevention
and treatment of the cardiovascular and respiratory
diseases, supporting targeted social protection and
ensuring food security
• Adaptation of water supply and heating systems,
promotion and introduction of energy-saving technologies
in housing and communal services particularly in remote
areas
• Advocacy of environment protection and rational use of
the natural resources
Thank you!