Unit - 5 - Review - 1

Inference Review
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Unit 5 MC Review #1
In a random sample of 1,250 adult drivers, 450 said that they
would cut their driving by 10 percent if this significantly
helped the environment. Find a 95 percent confidence
interval estimate of the proportion of adult drivers who are
willing to cut their driving by 10 percent to help the
environment. (Show all of “I” of “PANIC” as work.)
.𝟑𝟔 (.𝟔𝟒)
.36 ± 1.96
𝟏,𝟐𝟓𝟎
(.333, .387)
Unit 5 MC Review #1
In a random sample of 1,250 adult drivers, 450 said that they
would cut their driving by 10 percent if this significantly
helped the environment. Find a 95 percent confidence
interval estimate of the proportion of adult drivers who are
willing to cut their driving by 10 percent to help the
environment. (Show all of “I” of “PANIC” as work.)
.𝟑𝟔 (.𝟔𝟒)
.36 ± 1.96
𝟏,𝟐𝟓𝟎
(.333, .387)
Unit 5 MC Review #2
In general, how does doubling the sample size change the
confidence interval size?
D𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐛𝐲 𝟐

Unit 5 MC Review #2
In general, how does doubling the sample size change the
confidence interval size?
D𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐛𝐲 𝟐

Unit 5 MC Review #3
A 2007 survey of 980 American drivers concluded
that 38 percent of the driving population would be
willing to pay higher gas prices to protect the
environment. What is meant by the poll having a
margin of error of 3 percent?
It is likely that between 35 percent and 41
percent of the driving population would
be willing to pay higher gas prices to
protect the environment.
Unit 5 MC Review #3
A 2007 survey of 980 American drivers concluded
that 38 percent of the driving population would be
willing to pay higher gas prices to protect the
environment. What is meant by the poll having a
margin of error of 3 percent?
It is likely that between 35 percent and 41
percent of the driving population would
be willing to pay higher gas prices to
protect the environment.
Unit 5 MC Review #4
A survey of 1,000 Americans reveals that 525 believe that
whales are an endangered animal and should have
protection from the fishing industry. In a survey of 750
Japanese, 325 believe that whales are endangered and
should be protected. To test at the 5 percent significance
level whether or not the data are significant evidence that
the proportion of Japanese who believe that whales need
protection is less than the proportion of Americans with this
belief, a student sets up the following: 𝑯𝟎 : p = .525 and 𝑯𝒂 :
p < .525, where p is the proportion of Japanese who believe
that whales need protection. Which of the following is a
true is a statement?
Unit 5 MC Review #4
A survey of 1,000 Americans reveals that 525 believe that whales are an endangered
animal and should have protection from the fishing industry. In a survey of 750
Japanese, 325 believe that whales are endangered and should be protected. To test at
the 5 percent significance level whether or not the data are significant evidence that
the proportion of Japanese who believe that whales need protection is less than the
proportion of Americans with this belief, a student sets up the following: 𝐻0 : p = .525
and 𝐻𝑎 : p < .525, where p is the proportion of Japanese who believe that whales need
protection. Which of the following is a true statement?
A. A two –sided test would be more appropriate.
B. Given the large sample sizes, a 1 percent significance level
would be more appropriate.
C. A two-population difference in proportions hypothesis test
525+325
D. Given that = .486 , 𝐻𝑎 :p<.486 would be more
1000+750
appropriate.
E. The student has set up a correct hypothesis test.
Unit 5 MC Review #4
A survey of 1,000 Americans reveals that 525 believe that whales are an endangered
animal and should have protection from the fishing industry. In a survey of 750
Japanese, 325 believe that whales are endangered and should be protected. To test at
the 5 percent significance level whether or not the data are significant evidence that
the proportion of Japanese who believe that whales need protection is less than the
proportion of Americans with this belief, a student sets up the following: 𝐻0 : p = .525
and 𝐻𝑎 : p < .525, where p is the proportion of Japanese who believe that whales need
protection. Which of the following is a true statement?
A. A two –sided test would be more appropriate.
B. Given the large sample sizes, a 1 percent significance level
C. A two-population difference in proportions hypothesis test
525+325
D. Given that = .486 , 𝐻𝑎 :p<.486 would be more
1000+750
appropriate.
E. The student has set up a correct hypothesis test.
Unit 5 MC Review #5
What is the probability of a Type II error when a hypothesis
test is being conducted at the 5 percent significance level
(𝜶 =. 𝟎𝟓)?
There is insufficient information to answer

this question.
Unit 5 MC Review #5
What is the probability of a Type II error when a hypothesis
test is being conducted at the 5 percent significance level
(𝜶 =. 𝟎𝟓)?
There is insufficient information to answer

this question.
Unit 5 MC Review #6
A confidence interval estimate is determined from the
summer earnings of an SRS of n students. All other things
being equal, which of the following will result in a larger
margin of error?
I. A greater confidence level
II. A larger sample standard deviation
III. A larger sample size
I and II are true, but III is not.

Unit 5 MC Review #6
A confidence interval estimate is determined from the
summer earnings of an SRS of n students. All other things
being equal, which of the following will result in a larger
margin of error?
I. A greater confidence level
II. A larger sample standard deviation
III. A larger sample size
I and II are true, but III is not.

Unit 5 MC Review #7
Two confidence interval estimates from the same
sample are (72.2, 77.8) and (71.3, 78.7). One
estimate is at the 95 percent level, and the other is
at the 99 percent level. Which is which?
(72.2, 77.8) is the 95 percent level.

Unit 5 MC Review #7
Two confidence interval estimates from the same
sample are (72.2, 77.8) and (71.3, 78.7). One
estimate is at the 95 percent level, and the other is
at the 99 percent level. Which is which?

Unit 5 MC Review #8
An office manager believes that the percentage of
employees arriving late is even greater than the
previously claimed 7 percent. She conducts a
hypothesis test on a random 200 employee arrivals
and finds 23 punching in late. Is this strong evidence
against the .07 claim?
Yes, because the P-value is 0.0062
Unit 5 MC Review #8
An office manager believes that the percentage of
employees arriving late is even greater than the
previously claimed 7 percent. She conducts a
hypothesis test on a random 200 employee arrivals
and finds 23 punching in late. Is this strong evidence
against the .07 claim?
Yes, because the P-value is 0.0062
Unit 5 MC Review #9
Should there be more restrictions on handguns? In a 1995
pre-Columbine survey, 255 out of 1,020 adults answered in
the affirmative; in a 2000 post-Columbine survey, 352 out of
1,100 answered affirmatively. Establish a 90 percent
confidence interval estimate of the difference between the
proportions of adults in 1995 and 2000 who support more
restrictions on handguns. (Show all of “I” of “PANIC” as
work.)
(.𝟐𝟓)(.𝟕𝟓) .𝟑𝟐 (.𝟔𝟖)

(.25 – .32) ± 1.645 +
𝟏,𝟎𝟐𝟎 𝟏,𝟏𝟎𝟎
Unit 5 MC Review #9
Should there be more restrictions on handguns? In a 1995
pre-Columbine survey, 255 out of 1,020 adults answered in
the affirmative; in a 2000 post-Columbine survey, 352 out of
1,100 answered affirmatively. Establish a 90 percent
confidence interval estimate of the difference between the
proportions of adults in 1995 and 2000 who support more
restrictions on handguns. (Show all of “I” of “PANIC” as
work.)
(.𝟐𝟓)(.𝟕𝟓) .𝟑𝟐 (.𝟔𝟖)

(.25 – .32) ± 1.645 +
𝟏,𝟎𝟐𝟎 𝟏,𝟏𝟎𝟎
(-.102, -.038)
Unit 5 MC Review #10
The acceptance rate at a particular college is 58 percent. If
one takes an SRS of applicants to this college and constructs
a confidence interval estimate of the acceptance rate, which
of the following would be true?
I. The center of the interval would be 58 percent.
II. The interval would contain 58 percent.
III.A 99 percent confidence interval estimate would contain
58 percent.
None on these are true.

The acceptance rate at a particular college is 58 percent. If
one takes an SRS of applicants to this college and constructs
a confidence interval estimate of the acceptance rate, which
of the following would be true?
I. The center of the interval would be 58 percent.
II. The interval would contain 58 percent.
III.A 99 percent confidence interval estimate would contain
58 percent.
None on these are true.

Under what conditions would it be meaningful
to construct a confidence interval estimate
when the data consist of the entire
population?
It is never appropriate.
Under what conditions would it be meaningful
to construct a confidence interval estimate
when the data consist of the entire
population?
It is never appropriate.
A survey is to be taken to estimate the proportion of
voters who favor stem cell research. What is the
smallest sample size that will guarantee a margin of
error of at most .035 for a 96 percent confidence
interval?
𝟐
𝒛∗ 𝟐ෝ 𝒒
𝒑 ෝ 𝟐. 𝟎𝟓𝟒 . 𝟓 (. 𝟓)
n= =
𝑴𝑬𝟐 . 𝟎𝟑𝟓𝟐
= 𝟖𝟔𝟏. 𝟎𝟎𝟑
A survey is to be taken to estimate the proportion of
voters who favor stem cell research. What is the
smallest sample size that will guarantee a margin of
error of at most .035 for a 96 percent confidence
interval?
𝟐
𝒛∗ 𝟐ෝ 𝒒
𝒑 ෝ 𝟐. 𝟎𝟓𝟒 . 𝟓 (. 𝟓)
n= =
𝑴𝑬𝟐 . 𝟎𝟑𝟓𝟐
= 𝟖𝟔𝟏. 𝟎𝟎𝟑
Two 95 percent confidence interval estimates are obtained: I
(78.5, 84.5) and II (80.3, 88.2).
If the sample sizes are the same, which has the larger
standard deviation?
(80.3, 88.2)
If the sample standard deviations are the same, which
has the larger size?
(78.5, 84.5)
Two 95 percent confidence interval estimates are obtained: I
(78.5, 84.5) and II (80.3, 88.2).
If the sample sizes are the same, which has the larger
standard deviation?
(80.3, 88.2)
If the sample standard deviations are the same, which
has the larger size?
(78.5, 84.5)
In a random survey of 500 women, 315 said they would rather be poor
and thin than rich and fat; in a random survey of 400 men, 220 said
they would rather be poor and thin than rich and fat. Is there sufficient
evidence to show that the proportion of women who would rather be
poor and thin than rich and fat is greater than the proportion of men
of who would rather be poor and thin than rich and fat?
P-value of .0075, so there is very strong

evidence that the proportion of women
is greater than that of men.
In a random survey of 500 women, 315 said they would rather be poor
and thin than rich and fat; in a random survey of 400 men, 220 said
they would rather be poor and thin than rich and fat. Is there sufficient
evidence to show that the proportion of women who would rather be
poor and thin than rich and fat is greater than the proportion of men
of who would rather be poor and thin than rich and fat?
P-value of .0075, so there is very strong

evidence that the proportion of women
is greater than that of men.
A telephone survey of 400 registered voters showed that 256 had not
yet made up their minds 1 month before the election. At what
confidence level can we say that between 60 percent and 68 percent
of the electorate were still undecided at that time.
90.4 percent
A telephone survey of 400 registered voters showed that 256 had not
yet made up their minds 1 month before the election. At what
confidence level can we say that between 60 percent and 68 percent
of the electorate were still undecided at that time.
90.4 percent
In a random survey of 450 adults, 28 percent said that they felt that
their credit card debt is too high. With what degree of confidence can
the pollster say that 28 ± 4 percent of adults believe that their credit
card debt is too high?
94.1 percent
In a random survey of 450 adults, 28 percent said that they felt that
their credit card debt is too high. With what degree of confidence can
the pollster say that 28 ± 4 percent of adults believe that their credit
card debt is too high?
94.1 percent
The school superintendent wants to know what percentage of
property owners are willing to support an increase in school taxes.
What size sample should be obtained to determine with 90 percent
confidence the support level to within 5 percent?
271
𝒛∗ 𝟐 𝒑
ෝ 𝒒
ෝ 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓𝟐 . 𝟓 (. 𝟓)
n= =
𝑴𝑬𝟐 . 𝟎𝟓𝟐
= 𝟐𝟕𝟎. 𝟔𝟎𝟑
The school superintendent wants to know what percentage of
property owners are willing to support an increase in school taxes.
What size sample should be obtained to determine with 90 percent
confidence the support level to within 5 percent?
271
𝒛∗ 𝟐 𝒑
ෝ 𝒒
ෝ 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓𝟐 . 𝟓 (. 𝟓)
n= =
𝑴𝑬𝟐 . 𝟎𝟓𝟐
= 𝟐𝟕𝟎. 𝟔𝟎𝟑
When an online news magazine asked viewers to click their agreement
or disagreement, 300 out of 1,200 respondents agreed with a
statement that the most practical way of becoming a millionaire is
winning a lottery. Immediate feedback stated that 25 percent of the
viewers, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percent, agreed with the
statement. Fine print claimed 95 percent confidence. What is the
wrong with this statement and claim?
Example of voluntary response bias, so

the calculation is inappropriate
When an online news magazine asked viewers to click their agreement
or disagreement, 300 out of 1,200 respondents agreed with a
statement that the most practical way of becoming a millionaire is
winning a lottery. Immediate feedback stated that 25 percent of the
viewers, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percent, agreed with the
statement. Fine print claimed 95 percent confidence. What is the
wrong with this statement and claim?
Example of voluntary response bias, so

the calculation is inappropriate
How do sample size and confidence level influence the width of a
confidence interval.
Smaller samples result in wider intervals.

Higher confidence also results in wider intervals.
How do sample size and confidence level influence the width of a
confidence interval.
Smaller samples result in wider intervals.

Higher confidence also results in wider intervals.
In a well-known basketball study, it was reported that Larry Bird hit a
second free throw in 48 out of 53 attempts after the first free throw
was missed, and hit a second free throw in 251 of 285 attempts after
the first free throw was made. Is there sufficient evidence to say that
the probability that Bird will make a second free throw is different
depending on whether or not he made the first free throw?
P-value of .10, so there is insufficient

evidence that the probabilities are
different.
In a well-known basketball study, it was reported that Larry Bird hit a
second free throw in 48 out of 53 attempts after the first free throw
was missed, and hit a second free throw in 251 of 285 attempts after
the first free throw was made. Is there sufficient evidence to say that
the probability that Bird will make a second free throw is different
depending on whether or not he made the first free throw?
P-value of .10, so there is insufficient

evidence that the probabilities are
different.
There are 50,000 high school students in an extended metropolitan
region. As each of their students came in to register for classes,
guidance counselors were instructed to use a calculator to pick a
random number between 1 and 100. If the number 50 was picked, the
student was included in a survey. For one of the many survey
questions, 30 percent of the students said they couldn’t live without
instant messaging. Are all conditions met for constructing a confidence
interval of the proportion of this region’s teenagers who believe they
couldn’t live without instant messaging?
Yes, all conditions are met, and a

confidence interval can be constructed.
There are 50,000 high school students in an extended metropolitan
region. As each of their students came in to register for classes,
guidance counselors were instructed to use a calculator to pick a
random number between 1 and 100. If the number 50 was picked, the
student was included in a survey. For one of the many survey
questions, 30 percent of the students said they couldn’t live without
instant messaging. Are all conditions met for constructing a confidence
interval of the proportion of this region’s teenagers who believe they
couldn’t live without instant messaging?
Yes, all conditions are met, and a

confidence interval can be constructed.
How do confidence level and the 𝒑 ෝ value influence the size of the
margin of error in a confidence interval for a population proportion?
ෝ is to 0.50, the larger the

The closer 𝒑
Margin of Error.
Also, the higher the confidence level,

the larger the Margin of Error.
How do confidence level and the 𝒑 ෝ value influence the size of the
margin of error in a confidence interval for a population proportion?
ෝ is to 0.50, the larger the

The closer 𝒑
Margin of Error.
Also, the higher the confidence level,

the larger the Margin of Error.
Before televised debates, a poll of 800 registered voters showed 560 in
favor of a particular candidate; after the debates a poll of 600 voters
showed 450 in favor of the candidate. Is there sufficient evidence that
the candidate’s popularity has increased-what is the test statistic?
. 𝟕−. 𝟕𝟓
𝒛=
. 𝟕𝟐𝟏 (𝟏−. 𝟕𝟐𝟏) (. 𝟕𝟐𝟏)(𝟏−. 𝟕𝟐𝟏)
+
𝟖𝟎𝟎 𝟔𝟎𝟎
≈ −𝟐. 𝟎𝟔𝟓2
Before televised debates, a poll of 800 registered voters showed 560 in
favor of a particular candidate; after the debates a poll of 600 voters
showed 450 in favor of the candidate. Is there sufficient evidence that
the candidate’s popularity has increased-what is the test statistic?
. 𝟕−. 𝟕𝟓
𝒛=
. 𝟕𝟐𝟏 (𝟏−. 𝟕𝟐𝟏) (. 𝟕𝟐𝟏)(𝟏−. 𝟕𝟐𝟏)
+
𝟖𝟎𝟎 𝟔𝟎𝟎
≈ −𝟐. 𝟎𝟔𝟓2
A manufacturer of heart-lung machines periodically checks a sample of
its product and performs a major recalibration if readings are
sufficiently off target. Similarly, a rug factory periodically checks the
sizes of its throw rugs coming off an assembly line and halts
production if measurements are sufficiently off target. In both
situations, we have the null hypothesis that the production equipment
is performing satisfactorily. For each situation, which is the more
serious concern, a Type I or Type II error?
Machine producer: Type II error
Carpet manufacturer: Type I error
A manufacturer of heart-lung machines periodically checks a sample of
its product and performs a major recalibration if readings are
sufficiently off target. Similarly, a rug factory periodically checks the
sizes of its throw rugs coming off an assembly line and halts
production if measurements are sufficiently of target. In both
situations, we have the null hypothesis that the production equipment
is performing satisfactorily. For each situation, which is the more
serious concern, a Type I or Type II error?
Machine producer: Type II error
Carpet manufacturer: Type I error
We are interested in the proportion p of people who drive pick-up
trucks in a large city. Seven percent of a simple random sample of 760
people say they drive pick-ups. What is the midpoint for a 99 percent
confidence interval estimate of p?
0.07
We are interested in the proportion p of people who drive pick-up
trucks in a large city. Seven percent of a simple random sample of 760
people say they drive pick-ups. What is the midpoint for a 99 percent
confidence interval estimate of p?
0.07
A company negotiator claims that only 35 percent of union members
will support a strike, but a union representative believes the true
percentage is greater and runs a hypothesis test at the 5 percent
significance level. If 57 out of an SRS of 150 union members say they
are willing to strike, what is the test statistic?
. 𝟑𝟖−. 𝟑𝟓
𝒛=
. 𝟑𝟓 (𝟏−. 𝟑𝟓)
𝟏𝟓𝟎
≈ 𝟎. 𝟕𝟕𝟎𝟑
A company negotiator claims that only 35 percent of union members
will support a strike, but a union representative believes the true
percentage is greater and runs a hypothesis test at the 5 percent
significance level. If 57 out of an SRS of 150 union members say they
are willing to strike, what is the test statistic?
. 𝟑𝟖−. 𝟑𝟓
𝒛=
. 𝟑𝟓 (𝟏−. 𝟑𝟓)
𝟏𝟓𝟎
≈ 𝟎. 𝟕𝟕𝟎𝟑
If all variables remain constant, which of the following will increase
the power of a hypothesis test?
I. Increasing the sample size
II. Increasing the significance level
III. Increasing the probability of a Type II error
I and II only
If all variables remain constant, which of the following will increase
the power of a hypothesis test?
I. Increasing the sample size
II. Increasing the significance level
III. Increasing the probability of a Type II error
I and II only
Given that the power of a significance test against a particular
alternative is 96 percent, what does 4 percent represent?
The probability of mistakenly failing

to reject a false null hypothesis is 4%.
Given that the power of a significance test against a particular
alternative is 96 percent, what does 4 percent represent?
The probability of mistakenly failing

to reject a false null hypothesis is 4%.
In an SRS of 165 pet owners who do not use herbicides around the
house, 23 had pets with lymphomas, in an SRS of 212 pet owners who
do use herbicides, 87 had pets with lymphomas. A 90 percent
confidence interval of the difference is reported to be -.271 ± .071.
Interpret the confidence interval in context.
We are 90% confident that the proportion of pet

owners using herbicides who have pet with
lymphomas is between 0.342 and 0.200 higher
than the proportion of pet owners not using
herbicides who have pets with lymphomas.
In an SRS of 165 pet owners who do not use herbicides around the
house, 23 had pets with lymphomas, in an SRS of 212 pet owners who
do use herbicides, 87 had pets with lymphomas. A 90 percent
confidence interval of the difference is reported to be -.271 ± .071.
Interpret the confidence interval in context.
We are 90% confident that the proportion of pet

owners using herbicides who have pet with
lymphomas is between 0.342 and 0.200 higher
than the proportion of pet owners not using
herbicides who have pets with lymphomas.
A sports magazine claims that home teams win 54 percent of the
games in high school sports. An athletic director tests this claim by
checking an SRS of 500 games and notes that the home team won 280
of them. With 𝑯𝟎 : 𝒑 = . 𝟓𝟒 and 𝑯𝒂 : 𝒑 ≠ . 𝟓𝟒 , what is the value of
the test statistic?
. 𝟓𝟔−. 𝟓𝟒
𝒛=
. 𝟓𝟒 (𝟏−. 𝟓𝟒)
𝟓𝟎𝟎
≈ 𝟎. 𝟖𝟗𝟕𝟑
A sports magazine claims that home teams win 54 percent of the
games in high school sports. An athletic director tests this claim by
checking an SRS of 500 games and notes that the home team won 280
of them. With 𝑯𝟎 : 𝒑 = . 𝟓𝟒 and 𝑯𝒂 : 𝒑 ≠ . 𝟓𝟒 , what is the value of
the test statistic?
. 𝟓𝟔−. 𝟓𝟒
𝒛=
. 𝟓𝟒 (𝟏−. 𝟓𝟒)
𝟓𝟎𝟎
≈ 𝟎. 𝟖𝟗𝟕𝟑
Using the same data, one student performs a test 𝑯𝟎 : 𝒑 = . 𝟖𝟓 with
𝑯𝒂 : 𝒑 ≠ . 𝟖𝟓 ; a second student performs a test 𝑯𝟎 : 𝒑 = . 𝟖𝟓 with
𝑯𝒂 : 𝒑 < . 𝟖𝟓. Even though both use the 𝜶 = .05 level of significance,
the first student claims there is not enough evidence to reject 𝑯𝟎 ,
and the second student says there is enough evidence to reject 𝑯𝟎 .
Provide a possible z-score that both student found. Does -1 times this
score also give the same results?
z = -1.75 gives a two-sided resulting P-value = 0.08,

but a one-sided (p<.85) resulting P-value = 0.04.
Trying z = +1.75 gives the same two-sided result,

but the P(z<1.75) ≈ 0.96
Using the same data, one student performs a test 𝑯𝟎 : 𝒑 = . 𝟖𝟓 with
𝑯𝒂 : 𝒑 ≠ . 𝟖𝟓 ; a second student performs a test 𝑯𝟎 : 𝒑 = . 𝟖𝟓 with
𝑯𝒂 : 𝒑 < . 𝟖𝟓. Even though both use the 𝜶 = .05 level of significance,
the first student claims there is not enough evidence to reject 𝑯𝟎 ,
and the second student says there is enough evidence to reject 𝑯𝟎 .
Provide a possible z-score that both student found. Does -1 times this
score also give the same results?
z = -1.75 gives a two-sided resulting P-value = 0.08,

but a one-sided (p<.85) resulting P-value = 0.04.
Trying z = +1.75 gives the same two-sided result,

but the P(z<1.75) ≈ 0.96
A political action group wishes to learn the government approval
rating on the environment. From a past study, they know that they will
have to poll 270 people for their desired level of confidence. If they
want to keep the same level of confidence but divide the margin of
error in third, how many people will they have to poll?
2,430
32 * 270 = 2,430
A political action group wishes to learn the government approval
rating on the environment. From a past study, they know that they will
have to poll 270 people for their desired level of confidence. If they
want to keep the same level of confidence but divide the margin of
error in third, how many people will they have to poll?
2,430
32 * 270 = 2,430
A company will market a new hybrid luxury car only if they can sell it
for more than $50,000 (otherwise, it will lose money). They do a
random survey of 50 potential customers and run a hypothesis test
with 𝑯𝟎 : 𝝁 = 𝟓𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 and 𝑯𝒂 : 𝝁 > 𝟓𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 . What would be the
consequences of Type I and Type II errors?
Type I Error: produce a nonprofit able car;

Type II Error: fail to produce a profitable car
A company will market a new hybrid luxury car only if they can sell it
for more than $50,000 (otherwise, it will lose money). They do a
random survey of 50 potential customers and run a hypothesis test
with 𝑯𝟎 : 𝝁 = 𝟓𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 and 𝑯𝒂 : 𝝁 > 𝟓𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 . What would be the
consequences of Type I and Type II errors?
Type I Error: produce a nonprofit able car;

Type II Error: fail to produce a profitable car
Changing from a 95 percent confidence interval estimate for a
population proportion to a 99 percent confidence interval estimate,
with all other things being equal, how is the interval size affected?
Increase the interval size by 31%
𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟔
= 𝟏. 𝟑𝟏 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝟑𝟏%
𝟏. 𝟗𝟔
Changing from a 95 percent confidence interval estimate for a
population proportion to a 99 percent confidence interval estimate,
with all other things being equal, how is the interval size affected?
Increase the interval size by 31%
𝟐. 𝟓𝟕𝟔
= 𝟏. 𝟑𝟏 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝟑𝟏%
𝟏. 𝟗𝟔
Which of the following are true statements?
T I. Tests of significance (hypothesis tests) are designed to measure
the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis.
F II. A well-planned test of significance should result in a statement
either that the null hypothesis is true or that it is false.
F III. The null hypothesis is one-sided and expressed using either < or
> if there is interest in deviations in only one direction.
F IV. It is helpful to examine your data before deciding whether to
use a one-sided or a two-sided hypothesis test.
F V. If the P-value is .05, the probability that the null hypothesis is
correct is .05.
F VI. The larger the P-value, the more evidence there is against the
null hypothesis.
F VII. The probability of a Type II error does not depend on the
probability of a Type I error.
F VIII. In conducting a hypothesis test, it is possible to
simultaneously make both a Type I and Type II error.
F IX. A Type II error will result if one incorrectly assumes the data are
normally distributed.
T X. The P-value of a test is the probability of obtaining a result as
extreme as the one obtained assuming the null hypothesis is
true.
F XI. If the P-value for a test is .043, the probability that the null
hypothesis is true is .043.
F XII.When the null hypothesis is rejected, it is because it is not true.
T XIII. If a population parameter is known, there is no reason to run a
hypothesis test on that population parameter.
F XIV. The P-value can be negative or positive depending upon
whether the sample statistic is less than or greater than the
claimed value of the population parameter in the null
hypothesis.
F XV. The P-value is based on a specific test statistic so must be
chosen before an experiment is conducted.
T XVI. The power of a test concerns its ability to detect an alternative
hypothesis.
T XVII. The significance level of a test is the probability of rejecting a
true null hypothesis.
F XVIII. The probability of a Type I error plus the probability of a Type
II error always equals 1.
T XIX. A P-value is a conditional probability.
F XX. The P-value is the probability that the null hypothesis is true.
F XXI. A P-value is the probability the null hypothesis is true given a
particular observed statistic.
F XXII. The significance level of a test is the probability of a Type II
error.
T XXIII. Given a particular alternative, the power of a test against
that alternative is 1 minus the probability of the Type II error
associated with that alternative.
T XXIV. If the significance level remains fixed, increasing the sample
size will reduce the probability of a Type II error.
T XIX. A P-value is a conditional probability.
F XX. The P-value is the probability that the null hypothesis is true.
F XXI. A P-value is the probability the null hypothesis is true given a
particular observed statistic.
F XXII. The significance level of a test is the probability of a Type II
error.
T XXIII. Given a particular alternative, the power of a test against
that alternative is 1 minus the probability of the Type II error
associated with that alternative.
T XXIV. If the significance level remains fixed, increasing the sample
size will reduce the probability of a Type II error.
Unit 5 FR Review #36
An auto parts company advertises that its special oil
additive will make the engine “run smoother, cleaner,
longer, with fewer repairs.” An independent laboratory
decides to test part of this claim. It arranges to use a taxicab
company’s fleet of cars. The cars are randomly divided into
two groups. The company’s mechanics will use the additive
in one group of cars but not in the other. At the end of a
year the laboratory will compare the percentage of cars in
each group that required engine repairs.
An auto parts company advertises that its special oil additive will make
the engine “run smoother, cleaner, longer, with fewer repairs.” An
independent laboratory decides to test part of this claim. It arranges to
use a taxicab company’s fleet of cars. The cars are randomly divided
into two groups. The company’s mechanics will use the additive in one
group of cars but not in the other. At the end of a year the laboratory
will compare the percentage of cars in each group that required engine
repairs. a) What kind of a study is this?
repairs. b) Will they do a one-tailed or a two-tailed test?
repairs. c) Explain in this context what a Type I error
would be.
repairs. d) Explain in this context what a Type II error
would be.
repairs. e) Which type of error would the additive
manufacturer consider more serious?
repairs.
f) If the cabs with the additive do indeed run significantly
better, can the company conclude it is an effect of the
additive? Can they generalize this result and recommend
the additive for all cars? Explain.
repairs.
f) If the cabs with the additive do indeed run significantly
better, can the company conclude it is an effect of the
additive? Can they generalize this result and recommend
the additive for all cars? Explain.
Among 242 Cleveland-area children born prematurely at low
birth weights between 1977 and 1979, only 74% graduated
from high school. Among a comparison group of 233
children of normal birth weight, 83% were high school
graduates. (“Outcomes in Young Adulthood for Very-Low-
Birth-Weight Infants,” New England Journal of Medicine,
346, no. 3[2002])
Among 242 Cleveland-area children born prematurely at low birth
weights between 1977 and 1979, only 74% graduated from high
school. Among a comparison group of 233 children of normal birth
weight, 83% were high school graduates. (“Outcomes in Young
Adulthood for Very-Low-Birth-Weight Infants,” New England Journal of
Medicine, 346, no. 3[2002])
a) Create a 95% confidence interval for the difference in graduation
rates between children of normal and very low birth weights. Be
sure to check the appropriate assumptions and conditions.
The parameter of interest is the difference between the proportion of
children of normal birth weight who graduate, 𝒑𝑵 , and the
proportion of children of very low birth weight who graduate, 𝒑𝑳 .
Among 242 Cleveland-area children born prematurely at low birth weights between
1977 and 1979, only 74% graduated from high school. Among a comparison group of
233 children of normal birth weight, 83% were high school graduates. (“Outcomes in
Young Adulthood for Very-Low-Birth-Weight Infants,” New England Journal of
Medicine, 346, no. 3[2002])
a) Create a 95% confidence interval for the difference in graduation rates
between children of normal and very low birth weights. Be sure to check the
appropriate assumptions and conditions.
Sample values can be considered independent, because

• Randomization Condition: We have no reason to believe that the
either the low or normal birth weight children are not
representative of all children in those groups.
• The 10% Condition: The 242 is less than 10% of all low birth
weight children and 233 is less than 10% of normal birth weight
children.
Medicine, 346, no. 3[2002])
• Independent Groups: The groups are independent.
• Success/Failure Condition:
Low Birth Weight: nෝ 𝒑𝑳 =(242)(0.74)=179 graduate and
𝒒𝑳 =(242)(0.26)=63 don’t graduate, both > 10
nෝ
Normal Birth Weight: nෝ 𝒑𝑵 =(233)(0.83)=193 graduate and
nෝ𝒒𝑵 = (233)(.17)=40 don’t graduate, both> 10
So, both samples sizes are large enough.
Medicine, 346, no. 3[2002])
Since all conditions are satisfied, we will preform a
2-proportion z-interval.
.83 .17 .74 .26
𝑆𝐸 𝑝Ƹ 𝑁 − 𝑝Ƹ 𝐿 =
𝑝ො𝑁 𝑞ො 𝑁
+
𝑝ො𝐿 𝑞ො 𝐿
= 233
+
242
= .03742
𝑛𝑁 𝑛𝐿
𝑝Ƹ 𝑁 − 𝑝Ƹ 𝐿 ± 𝑧 ∗ 𝑆𝐸 𝑝Ƹ 𝑁 − 𝑝Ƹ 𝐿 𝑀𝐸 = 𝑧 ∗ 𝑆𝐸 𝑝Ƹ 𝑁 − 𝑝Ƹ 𝐿
Est. = .83 − .74 = (1.96)(.03742)
=.09 = .0733
.09 ± .0733 (.0167, .1633)
Medicine, 346, no. 3[2002])
𝑝Ƹ 𝑁 − 𝑝Ƹ 𝐿 ± 𝑧 ∗ 𝑆𝐸 𝑝Ƹ 𝑁 − 𝑝Ƹ 𝐿
(.0167, .1633)
We are 95% confident that between 1.7% and 16.3% more normal
birth weight children graduated from high school than children who
had a very low birth weight.
Medicine, 346, no. 3[2002])
b) Does this provide evidence that premature birth may be a risk
factor for not finishing high school? Use your confidence interval to
test an appropriate hypothesis.
Medicine, 346, no. 3[2002])
c) Suppose your conclusion is incorrect. Which type of error did you
make?
If children who had a very low birth weight do not have a lower high
school graduation rate than children of normal birth weight, then
we made a Type I error. We rejected a null hypothesis of “no
difference” when we shouldn’t have.
Medicine, 346, no. 3[2002])
c) Suppose your conclusion is incorrect. Which type of error did you
make?
If children who had a very low birth weight do not have a lower high
school graduation rate than children of normal birth weight, then
we made a Type I error. We rejected a null hypothesis of “no
difference” when we shouldn’t have.
An advertising agency won’t sign an athlete to do product
endorsements unless it is sure the person is known to more
than 25% of its target audience. The agency always conducts
a poll of 500 people to investigate the athlete’s name
recognition before offering a contract. Then it tests 𝑯𝟎 : p =
0.25 against 𝑯𝒂 :p > 0.25 at a 5% level of significance.
endorsements unless it is sure the person is known to more than 25% of
its target audience. The agency always conducts a poll of 500 people to
investigate the athlete’s name recognition before offering a contract.
Then it tests 𝐻0 : p = 0.25 against 𝐻𝑎 :p > 0.25 at a 5% level of
significance.
a) Why does the company use upper tail tests in this situation?
significance.
b) Explain what Type I and Type II errors would represent in this
context, and describe the risk that each error poses to the
company.
significance.
b) Explain what Type I and Type II errors would represent in this
context, and describe the risk that each error poses to the
company.
significance.
c) The company is thinking of changing its test to use a 10% level of
significance. How would this change the company’s exposure to
each type of risk?
significance.
c) The company is thinking of changing its test to use a 10% level of
significance. How would this change the company’s exposure to
each type of risk?
The advertising company described in Question 38 is
thinking about signing a WNBA star to an
endorsement deal. In its poll 27% of the respondents
could identify her.
The advertising company described in Question 38 is thinking about
signing a WNBA star to an endorsement deal. In its poll 27% of the
respondents could identify her.
a) Fans who never took Statistics can’t understand why the
company did not offer this WNBA player an endorsement contract
even though the 27% recognition rate in the poll is above the 25%
threshold. Explain it to them.
b) Suppose that further polling reveals that this WNBA star really is
known to about 30% of the target audience. Did the company
initially commit a Type I or Type II error in not signing her?
c) Would the power of the company’s test have been higher or
lower if the player were more famous? Explain.
c) Would the power of the company’s test have been higher or
lower if the player were more famous? Explain.

Unit - 5 - Review - 1

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Inference Review

D𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐛𝐲 𝟐

D𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐛𝐲 𝟐

There is insufficient information to answer

There is insufficient information to answer

I and II are true, but III is not.

I and II are true, but III is not.

(72.2, 77.8) is the 95 percent level.

(72.2, 77.8) is the 95 percent level.

(.𝟐𝟓)(.𝟕𝟓) .𝟑𝟐 (.𝟔𝟖)

(.𝟐𝟓)(.𝟕𝟓) .𝟑𝟐 (.𝟔𝟖)

None on these are true.

None on these are true.

P-value of .0075, so there is very strong

P-value of .0075, so there is very strong

Example of voluntary response bias, so

Example of voluntary response bias, so

Smaller samples result in wider intervals.

Smaller samples result in wider intervals.

P-value of .10, so there is insufficient

P-value of .10, so there is insufficient

Yes, all conditions are met, and a

Yes, all conditions are met, and a

ෝ is to 0.50, the larger the

Also, the higher the confidence level,

ෝ is to 0.50, the larger the

Also, the higher the confidence level,

The probability of mistakenly failing

The probability of mistakenly failing

We are 90% confident that the proportion of pet

We are 90% confident that the proportion of pet

z = -1.75 gives a two-sided resulting P-value = 0.08,

Trying z = +1.75 gives the same two-sided result,

z = -1.75 gives a two-sided resulting P-value = 0.08,

Trying z = +1.75 gives the same two-sided result,

Type I Error: produce a nonprofit able car;

Type I Error: produce a nonprofit able car;

Increase the interval size by 31%

Increase the interval size by 31%

Sample values can be considered independent, because

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