Prospective

PROSPECTIVE
& INNOVATION
ARISTOBULO BEJARANO W.
Petroleum Engineer
CPIP 03960
Quebrada Valencia, Sierra Nevada de Santa

Marta, geological episod that happens 60
millions of years ago, TOVAR Aguirre Leyla,
Carta Petrolera, Feb. 2008.
UIS May 24 2015

Ilustración Institucional ANH, www.anh.gov.co
AGENDA
INDUSTRY REMARKS
ENERGY PROSPECTIVE ECOPETROL, GIBRALTAR, Carta Petrolera,
abril-junio 2003
INNOVATION DRIVES
CONCLUSIONS
2
A sunset from the "Cañón del Chicamocha”
PROSPECTIVE
& INNOVATION
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_lb1qhfhadrM/Rp7IB0yaK3I/AAAAAAA
ABGE/2zVIc6hOPro/s1600-h/IMG_2604-1.JPG
Petroleum Engineer
CPIP 03960
INDUSTRY
REMARKS
INDUSTRY REALITY
“A 2008 Ernst & Young survey showed that nearly 90% of
senior human resources executives at 22 top international
oil and gas companies thought the industry faced a
major talent void and they called the problem one of
the top five business issues facing their companies.”
PEEK Peter, Partner, Global Labour Monitor, and Patrick Gantès, Secretary-General, Centre de Recherches des
Entreprises et Sociétés; Whatever Happened to the Skills Crisis in the Oil and Gas Industry?; TALENT &
TECHNOLOGY, JPT July 2009.
INDUSTRY ADVISE
“Knowledge is dynamic. When people interact

spontaneously and free up the creative engines we all
have, there is no such thing as getting stuck in the mud
for very long.”
PRITCHETT Jim, Petris Technology, and Bill Barna, Wipro Consulting Services; Is Desperation the Mother of
Innovation? Why Technology Flourishes Best in Bad Times; GUEST EDITORIAL; JPT, June 2009.
5
INDUSTRY ACTION
“We need to incorporate more multidisciplinary knowledge

and petrotechnical software understanding in university
curriculums.”
HOPKINS Chris, SPE, President, Schlumberger Data & Consulting Services; Options are Running Out—Today’s Youth
Needs Convincing; TALENT & TECHNOLOGY, JPT, March 2009.
6
SOCIETY COMMITMENT
“… if there is a supply problem in the near future, it will not

be the result of depletion, but rather the failure of society to
invest in the research and development of technology
needed to provide conventional oil and gas, as well as
alternatives, on a timely basis.”
AGUILERA Roberto F./Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Roberto Aguilera/University of Calgary; SPE 110215-PP;
Assessing the Past, Present, and Near Future of the Global Energy Market; 2007 SPE Annual Technical Conference and
Exhibition held in Anaheim, California, U.S.A., 11–14 November 2007.
7
COMPANY GOALS
“Create Value and Maximize Shareholders’ Wealth through

Synergizing minds, tools and database.”
SENTURK Yasin; Value of Seamlessly Collaborative Integrated Studies; Principal Professional, Petroleum Engineering and
Development, Saudi Aramco, Oil Company Dhahran, Saud Arabia; SPE Distinguished Lecturer Program; April 2009.
8
MEGAPROJECTS INDUSTRY
“The monetization of gas, particularly in liquefied natural gas

(LNG) projects, requires large capital investment in most
links of the gas value chain from production to end use.”
BYBEE Karen; SPE Assistant Technology Editor; An Integrated Decision-Management Process Shortens Time to First Gas;
JPT, April 2009.
9
PROSPECTIVE
& INNOVATION
Petroleum Engineer
Ilustración Institucional ANH, www.anh.gov.co
CPIP 03960
ENERGY
PROSPECTIVE 11
LABASTIE Alain, 2011 President Society of Petroleum Engineers, The Oil & Gas Industry: What’s next?, Bucaramanga, Universidad
Industrial de Santander, SPE Professional and Student Chapters, Enero 25 2010. 13
the trend is toward an energy more dense and green
ENERGY EVOLUTION
- POPULATION (KM)
80 10
WOOD
PARTICIPATION %
COAL GAS
60
OIL
40 5
OTHERS
20
0 0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
K = 10^3
M = 10^6
BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

Energy Future: Strong dependence on HC
50
GAS
40
OIL
GROWING (%)
30
COAL
20
OTHERS
10
NUCLEAR
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
MARKET PARTICIPATION (%)
BLASINGAME Tom; Sustainable Energy Engineering: The Mix of Fossil Fuels, Nuclear, Wind, Solar, and Renewables; Department of Petroleum Engineering, Texas A&M University;
ACIPET (Colombian Association of Petroleum Engineers)and XIII Colombian Congress of Petroleum and Gas, 02-04 December 2009 —Bogota, COLOMBIA
17
18
19
“… Another important factor is the kind of oil and gas reservoirs that we
will be finding and developing…… to find and produce oil and gas, we
need to apply better technology and we need higher product
prices…….”
volumen
HOLDITCH Stephen A. , Texas A&M University, The Role of IOCs and NOCs in Developing Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs
THEWAYAHEAD Vol. 5, No. 3 , 2009.
Expected Energy Industry Behavior.
Population and Energy Needs Growth
The global energy consumption will

grow more than 50% by 2030
Total Energy Consumption
800 10
Thousands millions of persons

700 9
Total population,
8
600
Quadrillon BTU
7
500 6
400 5
300 4
3
200
2
100 1
0 0
1990 2004 2010 2020 2030
Energia Total
Total Energy Población
Population
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2007
“… we will need to produce more oil and more natural
gas to supply the energy required by the global
community …”
World marketed energy use by fuel type, 1990–2030.
Where We are ?
• The oil and gas industry is a growing, high
technology and a global business.
• There is more to learn than ever before.
• Industry needs to work with teams to help define
research needs
• Industry needs to help provide the data and
equipment required to conduct meaningful
research.
• We need Universities producing useful results.
HOLDITCH Stephen A.; Global Need for Education and People in the Petroleum Industry; TAMU, April 26, 2007.
HOLDITCH´S FUTURE OF
PETROLEUM ENGINEERING
1. Production of oil and gas will be from unconventional reservoirs.
2. It requires developing new technologies and implementing best practices for projects
associated with non-conventional reservoirs.
3. It requires well prepared trained human resources to solve these problems.
4. It is critical the appropriation of knowledge and subsequent transfer of this knowledge to

the next generation of engineers and geologists.
5. It requires a lot of preparation through the traditional and innovative ways.
6. Research should be done to help make better and faster preparation. It is not the basic
university education. It is competition, evaluation, short courses for industry and preparation
options based on Internet.
7. In the current oil and gas reality we do not have enough geologists and engineers to carry
out a broad development of unconventional accumulations.
PROSPECTIVE AND STRATEGIC SUMMARY
Knowledge is a commodity?
• Globalization
• Oil demand growing
• Price in function of supply and/or technology
• Green pressure and climate security
• Hypercompetitiveness and hypercompetition
• Competition of Industries, societies and countries
about fossil resources
• Focus on R & D & Innovation.
• Unconventional and offshore resources development
• Competition for investment capital
• Industrial and government restructuring
• High technology and education
• Technical risk more political risk
• Increasing social responsibility

PROSPECTIVE
& INNOVATION
Petroleum Engineer Ilustración Institucional ANH, www.anh.gov.co
CPIP 03960
INNOVATION DRIVES
31
PROSPECTIVE
INDUSTRY SCENARIOS
SUCCESS
Innovation
TQC
Speed Cost
Opportunity
COMMON PLACE

PROSPECTIVA
RETOS DE LA INDUSTRIA DE HC
YESTERDAY
THE EXCELLENT
NOW
THE OUTSTANDING
PROSPECTIVE
INDUSTRY DIMENSIONS
OPPORTUNITIES
GOVERNMENT
COMPANY OF HC
SERVICE COMPANY
CONSULTANT
PROSPECTIVE
BUSINESS RESULTS
R&D

PROSPECTIVE (FORESIGHT)
INDUSTRY DIMENSIONS
OPPORTUNITIES
PETROLEUM COMPANY
SELF SUFFICIENT AUTONOMOUS RISK
PROSPECTION
PROSPECTION EXPLORATION
EXPLORATION
DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT
PRODUCTION
IMPROVEMENT PRODUCTION
IMPROVEMENT
35
PROSPECTIVE
INDUSTRY DIMENSIONS
OPPORTUNITIES
SERVICES COMPANY (3):
• INTEGRATED TECHNOLOGY APPLIED TO IMPROVE RESERVOIR
PRODUCTION AND / OR LOW PERFORMING WELLS
• THE PROCESS IS TO IDENTIFY UNITS OF POOR PERFORMANCE,
SELECT REMEDIAL SOLUTION, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND RISK
EVALUATION, OPERATE PROFESSIONALLY AND DOCUMENT
• USE NEW AND PROVEN TECHNOLOGY
• MULTIDISCIPLINARY TEAM WORK AND REVIEW OF WORK EVENTS
AFTER POSTPRODUCCION
• UNDERSTAND THE RESERVOIR, IDENTIFY AND INTEGRATE
TECHNOLOGY TO MAXIMIZE THE VALUE CREATION
• QUALITY TECHNICAL MANAGEMENT AND TECHNICAL RESOURCES
• INTEGRATION WITH CLIENT
• ADEQUATE IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY
36
(3 ) WELL SERVICING IMPROVES PRODUCTIVITY, EXTENDS RESERVES; JPT, SEPTEMBER 1995, Pges 734-740
PROSPECTIVE
INDUSTRY DIMENSIONS
OPPORTUNITIES
SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS CONSULTING(2):
• THEORETICAL KNOWLEDGE + KNOW HOW
• ABILITY TO COMMUNICATE
• DEVELOP NETWORK IN O&G BUSINESS
• CREDIBILITY AND REPUTATION OF HONESTY AND INTEGRITY
• TOUCH DOORS, WRITE AND PUBLISH PAPERS.
• CHOOSE SELECT GROUP OF CLIENTS
• CUSTOMER MUST IMPLEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
• ACCESS TO TECHNICAL INFORMATION NETWORK AVAILABLE
• STRATEGIC ALLIANCES WITH OTHERS O JV
• HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT AVAILABLE
• FEES CONSISTENT AND ESTABLISHED IN THE MARKET
• ADEQUATE PROJECTS MANAGEMENT
• CLEAR OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND PLANNING (VALUE+)
• INFORMATION OR ASSISTANCE IN CONTRACTUAL ISSUES
37
(2 ) SO YOU WANT TO BE A CONSULTANT ?; JPT, SEPTEMBER 1995, Pges 747-749
PROSPECTIVE
INDUSTRY DIMENSIONS
ACTIONS
• COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES (WHAT WE HAVE TODAY) MUST BE

TRANSFORMED INTO COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES (DIFFERENCE,
POSITIONING AND INNOVATION FOR THE NEXT MOMENT)
• WE HAVE TO TURN OBSOLETE OUR CURRENT KNOWLEDGE

AND THINK WHAT OTHERS HAVE NOT THOUGHT TO SUCCEED
• WE MUST BE ALERT IN ORDER TO CHOOSE OPTIONS OF

FUTURE AND WE MUST BE PREPARED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE INNOVATIVE KNOWLEDGE AND THE NEW TECHNICAL
EXPERTISE.
• WE NEED TO CREATE VALUE

CRITICAL FACTORS IN E&P
• The critical factors of success in the oil

industry are opportunities for exploration
and exploitation of hydrocarbon reserves,
value and technology.
• You need to use better technology to
explore and exploit economic opportunities
in scenarios of variables prices and high
risk.
BUSINESS VISUALIZATION EXPLORATION
Vision: Company successful in promoting and finding HC and leader in knowledge and development of exploration nationally and internationally.
BUSSINESS DEFINE POTENTIAL OF PROSPECT PORTFOLIO

STRATEGY HC DISCOVERY IN AND PROJECTS WITH FOCUS
XXXXX´S BASINS. IN LARGE (>=500M BLS) AND MEDIUMS (>=100M BLS)
INTERNACIONALIZATION. OIL AND GAS FIELDS.
INCREASE RESERVES
Key success ESTABLISH OPTIONS TO FIND 100-500 MILLIONS OF BBLS/OPTION /YEAR

factors CAPITAL INVESTMENT BETWEEN 2013-2020.
RISK WITH PARTNERS.
Technical needs INVESTMENTS COMPETITIVITY PRODUCTION H. FACTORS:

and business issues -Seismic & Drilling -IT technology -Portfolio SOCIALS,
-Regional Projects -Training & Education -Priorization ENVIROMENT,
-Areas projects -Technologies -International Agreements HSQ & SECURITY
-Defined prospects -International Agreements with countries -Licenses
-International Projecyts -Strategic thinking -Prospect definition -Programs
-Management and -Investment options definition
preservation of the -Wells drilling definition
geological information -Direct & Associated HC Reserves
-Modalities of contracting
and reserves negociation
-Sinergy O&G industry actors
-Interagency agreements
R&D Programs -Project management -Technology Management - Evaluation Techniques -Regulations

-Management Sciences -Information systems -Processing technology
-Organizational Systems -Geosciences and geological interpretation
-Economic sciences -Petroleum systems
-Knowledge organization -Assets valoration
*TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT USING ROADMAPS ; BARKER & SMITH ; LONG RANGE PLANNING ; APRIL 1995.
BUSINESS VISUALIZATION PRODUCTION
Vision: OIL COMPANY MOST PROFITABLE WITH HIGH PRODUCTIVITY IN OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION..
Business INCREASE OPTIMIZE PARTNERSHIP MAXIMIZE
Strategy DISCOVERED HC PRODUCTION MARGINAL FIELDS OPERATION
RESERVES INVESTMENTS VALUE
Key success INCORPORATE 160 M BLS DE CRUDO PORTFOLIO COST LOWER THAN
factors 125 GPC DE GAS MARGINAL FIELDS 4.5 US$ / BBL
Technical needs INVESTMENTS COMPETITIVITY PRODUCTION H. FACTORS:

and business issues -Drilling -IT -Field Portfolio SOCIALS,
-Seismic 3D -Training & education -Field operation ENVIRONMENT
-Surface facilities -Technologies -Development drilling HSQ & Security
-Field operations -Cost management -Fields valuation -Environmental
-Reservoir Studies -Strategic thinking -Production Project definition planning
-Production management -Strategic Planning -HSQ and industrial
-Financial management -O&G Production options security
-Improvement options -Society & Community
Relationships
Management
R&D Programs -Project management -Technology Management - Evaluation Techniques -Regulations

-Management Sciences -Information systems - Reservoir technology -Contingency
-Organizational Systems -Geosciences - Production technologies Planning
-Operation management -Economic Sciences - Operation technology -Industrial
-Formation Dammage - Reservoir Characterization. Security & HSQ
-Production Optimization - Reservoir enginnering -Human Sciences
-IT Technologies
*TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT USING ROADMAPS ; DEREK BARKER & DAVID J. H. SMITH ; LONG RANGE PLANNING ;
VOL 28 ; N 2 ; pp. 21 to 28 ; april 1995 .
INNOVATION DIMENSIONS:
PERCEPTION

INNOVATION DIMENSIONS:

DESIGN FACTOR:
PLANNING
STRATEGIC VISION
SOME
CORPORATIVE STRUCTURE
IMAGE ISSUES
PROSPECTIVE
IMAGINATION
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTOR:
S&T
HUMAN FACTOR: R&D
EDUCATION NETWORKS
LANGUAJES INTELLIGENT DATA & INFORMATION
CULTURE INTELLIGENT NETWORKS
LEARNING KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION
TEAM WORK TECHNICAL SERVICES
LEGISLATION TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT
MULTIDISCIPLINARITY KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
NEGOCIATION TECHNOLOGICAL RISK VALUE
LEADERSHIP TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
HUMAN FACTOR
Complexity en :
- Communication
- Knowledge integration
- Language
- Scientific work
- Multidisciplinary data and team work
diversity
- Negociation and ethics

TECHNOLOGICAL FACTOR
Uncertainty in understanding
Reservoir, Prospects and Projects

Characterization

TECHNOLOGICAL FACTOR
Technological revolution and cost reduction in

E&P in USA in the nineties
E&P*
1981
Costos
50%
50 %
1996
Tecnología
HUMAN AND TECHNOLOGICAL FACTOR
ORGANIZATION SYNERGISTIC
PETROPHISICIST RESERVOIR
TEAM
GEOCHEMICAL
EXPLORATION
GEOPHYSICIST COMPLETION
EXPLORATION
ENGINEER
(PROJECT MANAGER)
STRATIGRAPHER DRILLING
ENGINEER
DRILLING
GEOLOGIST
(CREATING, MANAGING, AND EVALUATION MULTIDISCIPLINARY TEAMS, A.A.P.G. - 1993)

DESIGN FACTOR
BUSINESS SYSTEMS - REFLECTION
OPEN CLOSED
· Dinamic · Estatic
· Impredictable · Predictable
· Singular · Reproducible
· Alive · Mecanic
· Interact with · Inmmovile
· Environment · Limited
· Excelence · Rivality
· Knowledge · Information
· Anticipation · Short term
· Proactive · Reactive
“Companies are humans and should

be observed in their human environment”.

THE LIFE CYCLE OF THE TECHNOLOGY
The life cycle of the technology is similar to the life cycle of living beings
R &D COMPETITION MARKET

COMPETITIVITY
PROCESS
INNOVATION
PRODUCT
INNOVATION
MODIFIED FROM: FARNAND AMESSE (CETAI-HEC), ESSAI SUR LES TIME

TRANSFERTS INTERNATIONAUX DE TECHNOLOGIE DANS LE SECTEUR DU
RAFFINAGE ET DE LA PETROCHIMIE, 1990, SEMINARIO UNIANDES, ABRIL 1991.
2 :
T TECHNOLOGICAL DESAGREGATION
INTEGRAL
TECHNOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGICAL
ACTIVITIES ELEMENTS
VISION
ACTIVITIES
SYSTEMS
GROUPS
STEPS GROUPS
TIMES COMPONENTS
PROJECT
•RESOURCES
•MANAGEMENT •PROCESSES
TECHNOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGICAL
•EQUIPMENT
MANAGEMENT PARTICIPATION
CAPACITY CAPACITY
*CARTAGENA AGREEMENT BOARD; TECHNOLOGY DISAGGREGATION MANUAL, 1969.
The Technology Transfer
Disseminators
Creators SPE Consumers
Oil and Gas

Collaborative
Companies
Research
(E&P/Service)
52
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
R&D MODEL
MARKET
OPERATION
S&T
INNOVATION
FEASIBILITY
PROTOTYPE
PRODUCT

FACTORS
FACTOR SCENARIO
1. Oil Current and future main energetic source . (40 years).

2. Gas High grow.
3. Reserves Self-sufficiency and internacionalization
4. Production Cost reduction and outsourcing of mature fields. New technologies.
5. Environment Reduction of contamination, green products.
6. Light fuels Emission control, reformulated gasolines and hidrotreating.
7. Bottom of the barril Reduce or eliminate.
8. Petrochemistry World growing, desregulated market, alliances.
9. Human development Oriented to the Intelligent Organization.
10. Technology Technical Knowledge incorporated to the Corporative Strategy.
Basis of the market differentiation. It will establish the competitive
advantage.
11. Alliances R&D and O&G Operations associated
12. Economy and Competition Globalization, outsoursing y diversification
13. Capital y legislation High competition to obtain risk capital. Government initiatives
flexibles and atractives to stimulate the bussiness.
Competitivity System
VALUES AND PRINCIPLES
RESERVES INFORMATION
PRODUCTION KNOWLEDGE
COMPARATIVE COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE ADVANTAGE
CAPITAL TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY
HUMAN FACTOR MANAGEMENT
QUALITY AND MARKETING

PRODUCTIVITY INNOVATION

SPE's vision is:
“…to be a society of professional excellence,
providing its members the highest quality
lifelong learning, and continuous personal and
professional growth."
A Japanese proverb states that "vision without action is a daydream.

Action without vision is a nightmare." This is a simple statement, but with
profound meaning to any organization, including ours. Without our
volunteers' involvement, none of the worthwhile goals of SPE will be
achieved. They make our vision a reality!
4 January 2010 in JPT, President's Forum

A Human Universe
• Innovation is strategy
• Innovation is about resolving conflicts
• Innovation is value
• Innovation is people
The only possible universe

is a human universe
PROSPECTIVE
INDUSTRY DIMENSIONS
OBSOLETE IS THE KNOWLEDGE THAT WE ALL KNOW
• COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES (WHAT WE HAVE TODAY) MUST BE

TRANSFORMED INTO COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES (DIFFERENCE,
POSITIONING AND INNOVATION FOR THE NEXT MOMENT)
• WE HAVE TO TURN OBSOLETE OUR CURRENT KNOWLEDGE

AND THINK WHAT OTHERS HAVE NOT THOUGHT TO SUCCEED
• WE MUST BE ALERT IN ORDER TO CHOOSE OPTIONS OF

FUTURE AND WE MUST BE PREPARED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE INNOVATIVE KNOWLEDGE AND THE NEW TECHNICAL
EXPERTISE.
• WE NEED TO CREATE KNOWLEDGE VALUE

SPE Mission Statement
Provide the means to collect, disseminate,
and exchange technical information
concerning the development of oil and gas
resources, subsurface fluid flow, and
production of other materials through
wellbores for the public benefit; and to provide
opportunities through its programs for
interested (and qualified) individuals to
maintain and upgrade their individual
technical competence in these areas.
SCIENCE
AND
TECHNOLOGY
LEADERSHIP RESEARCH
AND AND
MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT

TECHNOLOGICAL POSTURE
CORPORATIVE
DECISION CREATE
ASIMILATE
ADAPT
BUY
BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS 6

M&A = Management and Administration
MANAGEMENT S&T = Science and Technology
OE = Operational effectiveness
EFECTIVITY Efectivity = Efficiency + Efficacy
MANAGEMENT M&A
EFFORT
OE
me M&A
S&T
M&A
OE
M&A S&T
OE
S&T t TIME

BUSINESS ALTERNATIVES
ASSETS
3
COMPETITION
7 3 7
-POSITIONING
-IMITATION
7
SUPPLIERS COMPANY CLIENTS
-UNIQUE -UNIQUE
-INNOVATION
-DIVERSE -DIVERSE
-EFFECTIVE MNGT
-MIXED -MIXED
MARKET
-LOCAL
-NATIONAL
-INTERNATIONAL
3087
R = f ( Capital, Labor, Technology, Knowledge, Market, Environment)
TOWARD INNOVATION
POTENTIAL FOR
COMPETITIVE
DIFERENTIATION
10 - 30 Y 5 - 10 Y 3-5Y
EMERGENTS KEY TIEMPO

TECHNOLOGIES
IN DEVELOPMENT BASIC
Innovation basis = Define client and his need.
-Invest in R&D -Identify the need

-listen experts -Check sources to develop
-Listen the market competitive advantage
-Develop network -Effective communication
-Create and add value
* TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AS A PROCESS OF ORGANIZATIONAL INTELLIGENCE,

ALEXANDER GERYBADZE, R &D MNGT 24, 2, 1994.
TOWARD INNOVATION
PRIORITIES
KEY FACTORS
IMPROVEMENT KEY AREAS
INTERNAL
AUDITING TECHNOLOGY ROL
EVALUATION OF BEST TECHNOLOGY

ALTERNATIVES SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
CONTINGENCY
PRIORIZATION
MANAGEMENT INDEX
PERFORMANCE TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT
EVALUATION TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IMPACT
PRODUCTIVITY
THE DESIGN OF A INTEGRATED GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR

TECHNOLOGY ASSESMENT, HAMIS NOORI, R & D MNGT 25, 3, 1995.
Some key technologies
• Unconventional resources
• Knowledge Management and Integration
• Advanced Rock and Reservoir Characterization
• Integrated O&G Reservoir Management
• Integrated HC Exploration Management
• Lab displacement test
• Formation dammage prevention
• Improved & enhanced oil and gas recovery
• Stimulation issues
• Horizontal and multilateral drilling
• Reserves Certification
• Reserves, Investment and R&D valuations.
• Management
• Geomechanics
• Fields and Wells Abandonment Management.

UIS´S FUTURE OF
PETROLEUM ENGINEERING
We consider the use of new specialized tools for the oil sector, new scientific and
interdisciplinary content in the curriculum, the implementation of a new laboratory
in petrophysical analysis (In Guatiguara Facilities closed to ICP), the activities in
the “Campo Escuela Colorado”, the entrepreneurial spirit development and
support, the strengthening and support of research groups, and the academic
structure of postgraduate level (specialization and expertise) will be important
determinants in the expected formation of the new Petroleum Engineer.
Furthermore, the future will be a petroleum engineer with professional mastery in

English as a Second Language (adoption of the Michigan test as a condition of
grade, agreement 119, 1999) and finally, he will have 6 months previous experience
through the work done as business practice.
We always will be the best.
https://www.uis.edu.co/portal/info_academica/escuelas/escs.jsp?cual2=17
LIKE E&P THE R&D INVESTMENT EVALUATIONS
ARE UNDER RISK CONDITIONS
Investment in R & D are

investment opportunities
that entails some kind of
risk given the nature of the
uncertainty about its
results.
BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

LIKE E&P THE R&D INVESTMENT EVALUATIONS
ARE UNDER RISK CONDITIONS
Risk is all those facts and

associated variables that affect
the cash flow
Investment (-)
Cost (-)
Income (+)
Taxes (-)
Royalties (-)
Time

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT IN R & D
UNDER RISK CONDITIONS
RISK
KNOWLEDGE
The risk is inversely proportional to the degree and quality of

information, knowledge and experience available about a
given innovation which is the subject of R & D.

THEORETICAL FRAME CORPORATIVE STRATEGIC
PLANNING OF R&D
OPERATIONAL AND
TECHNOLOGICAL
CAPACITY
RISK MEASUREMENT:
OPERATIVE AND TECHNOLOGICAL
VALUE OF
OPPORTUNITIES,
CAPITAL AND
CORPORATIVE RISK
ADDED VALUE OF INVESTMENT
OPPORTUNITIES IN R&D
CORPORATIVE
LIMITATIONS:
ALINEATION
OPTIMIZATION OF INVESTMENT
N°PROJECTS
PORTFOLIO IN R&D
BUDGET
RISK LEVEL
STRATEGIC VALUE
R&D PRIORITY
DECISION
MEASUREMENT OF OPERATION AND
TECHNOLOGICAL RISK
SUCCESS CRITICAL FACTORS
LINE SUCCESS
ETP = [%]
TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY OPERATIONAL CAPACITY
STEPS % T1 T2 T3 T4 O1 O2 O3 O4
VALORATION 1.00 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
SELECTION 1.00 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
DEFINITION 0.90 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9
EXECUTION 0.60 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8
OPERATION 0.80 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0
SUCCESS: ETP 0.43 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8

ADDED VALUE OF R&D
EVP – EXPECTED VALUE OF PROJECT (R&D)
ECP / ICP / ETP = PROJECT SUCCESS %
ECP
VPNC$
CONVENTIONAL
ALTERNATIVE
EVPCV
EVPCV
1-ECP
-CRC$
EVPT ICP
VPNC$ - CRI&D$
ETP
EVPI&D_1
EVPI&D 1-ICP
-CRC$ - CRI&D$
EVPI&D ECP
ALTERNATIVE VPNC$ - CRI&D$
R&D 1-ETP
EVPI&D_0
1-ECP
-CRC$ - CRI&D$
ADDED VALUE OF R&D
EVP – EXPECTED VALUE OF PROJECT (R&D)
ECP / ICP / ETP = PROJECT SUCCESS %
0,18 11920 MUS$

CONVENTIONAL 0,18 x 11920 = 2145.6
ALTERNATIVE
2145.6 - 65.6 = 2080.0
2080.0 0,82 x (-80) = - 65.6
0,82 -80 MUS$
EVPT = 2437.8 -2080.0 = 357.8 MUS$
0,25 11920 – 3.4 MUS$
0,43
2437.8 0.25x11916.6–0.75x83.4=2916.6
ALTERNATIVE 0,75
-83.4 MUS$
R&D 0.43x2916.6+0.57x2076.6 = 2437.8
0,18
11920 – 3.4 MUS$
0,57
0.18x11916.6–0.82x83.4=2076.6
DECISION NODES
0,82 -83.4 MUS$
ACHIEVEMENTS

PROSPECTIVE
& INNOVATION
Petroleum Engineer
CPIP 03960 Los Lápices UIS, Bucaramanga, FACEBOOK,
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bucaramanga-Colombia/QUIERE-LA-
UIS/111576369603
CONCLUSIONS 75
CONCLUSIONS
• E&P is a complex and high technological challenge
• The oil and gas industry is a global business.
• World strong dependence of HC
• Extraordinary knowledge means very low risk
• There is more to learn than ever before.
• Obsolescence is a big issue.
• Current knowledge environment is hypercompetitive.
Excelence (e) is a common place, Innovation (I) is the
issue.
• We are in a business strategically very important
(Opportunity) that requires and demands the greatest
strength based on knowledge.
• Address ethical issues (social responsibility, political risk,
minority rights, etc.).

ETHICAL ISSUES
EAT MORE
Modified from www.tonterías.com

“… You career is not a sprint, it
is a marathon….”
ATCE 2009 General Chairperson Rich
Kruger, president of ExxonMobil Production,
Student Sessions Offer Advice for Future Engineers

Erica Shillings, JPT Assistant Features Editor
ATCE 2009, SPE TODAY, TUESDAY 6 OCTOBER 2009
http://www.energy4me.org/ 78
MORE ETHICAL ISSUES
Dinner
t oday
Fr og
l egs
Requested support
1. Petroleum Engineering is a worldwide community
2. Incorporate O&G Science & Technology Prospective
3. Experts showing the current technological world.
4. Proposals and/or programs about enhancing the technical and
professional excellence in the industry.
5. Effective integration to this diverse, worldwide community.
6. Global and local energy vision about resources development
and production.
7. Promotion and knowledge of oil industry activities around the
world in order to consolidate a knowledge global network (SPE).
8. Stimulating Innovation requires recognition of the authors
commercial property of discoveries or technological
developments in companies and universities.
COMPETITIVITY
VALUES AND
COMPARATIVE
ADVANTAGE PRINCIPLES
COMPETITIVE
INFORMATION
ADVANTAGE
TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION
KNOWLEDGE &
TECHNOLOGY
MANAGEMENT
kNOWLEDGE
QUALITY Y MARKET 81
IMAGINATION...

Prospective - and - Innovation - 2015

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Quebrada Valencia, Sierra Nevada de Santa

UIS May 24 2015

“Knowledge is dynamic. When people interact

“We need to incorporate more multidisciplinary knowledge

“… if there is a supply problem in the near future, it will not

“Create Value and Maximize Shareholders’ Wealth through

“The monetization of gas, particularly in liquefied natural gas

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

The global energy consumption will

Thousands millions of persons

World marketed energy use by fuel type, 1990–2030.

3. It requires well prepared trained human resources to solve these problems.

4. It is critical the appropriation of knowledge and subsequent transfer of this knowledge to

5. It requires a lot of preparation through the traditional and innovative ways.

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

• COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES (WHAT WE HAVE TODAY) MUST BE

• WE HAVE TO TURN OBSOLETE OUR CURRENT KNOWLEDGE

• WE MUST BE ALERT IN ORDER TO CHOOSE OPTIONS OF

• WE NEED TO CREATE VALUE

• The critical factors of success in the oil

BUSSINESS DEFINE POTENTIAL OF PROSPECT PORTFOLIO

Key success ESTABLISH OPTIONS TO FIND 100-500 MILLIONS OF BBLS/OPTION /YEAR

Technical needs INVESTMENTS COMPETITIVITY PRODUCTION H. FACTORS:

R&D Programs -Project management -Technology Management - Evaluation Techniques -Regulations

Technical needs INVESTMENTS COMPETITIVITY PRODUCTION H. FACTORS:

R&D Programs -Project management -Technology Management - Evaluation Techniques -Regulations

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

Reservoir, Prospects and Projects

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

Technological revolution and cost reduction in

(CREATING, MANAGING, AND EVALUATION MULTIDISCIPLINARY TEAMS, A.A.P.G. - 1993)

BUSINESS SYSTEMS - REFLECTION

“Companies are humans and should

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

R &D COMPETITION MARKET

MODIFIED FROM: FARNAND AMESSE (CETAI-HEC), ESSAI SUR LES TIME

Creators SPE Consumers

Oil and Gas

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

1. Oil Current and future main energetic source . (40 years).

QUALITY AND MARKETING

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

A Japanese proverb states that "vision without action is a daydream.

4 January 2010 in JPT, President's Forum

The only possible universe

• COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES (WHAT WE HAVE TODAY) MUST BE

• WE HAVE TO TURN OBSOLETE OUR CURRENT KNOWLEDGE

• WE MUST BE ALERT IN ORDER TO CHOOSE OPTIONS OF

• WE NEED TO CREATE KNOWLEDGE VALUE

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS 6

BEJARANO W. Aristóbulo, ETICA Lectures, Petroleum Engineering School, UIS

EMERGENTS KEY TIEMPO

Innovation basis = Define client and his need.

-Invest in R&D -Identify the need

* TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AS A PROCESS OF ORGANIZATIONAL INTELLIGENCE,

EVALUATION OF BEST TECHNOLOGY

THE DESIGN OF A INTEGRATED GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR