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• Outcome: {3}
Solution:
There are two possible outcomes when tossing a coin:
a head (H) or a tail (T). For each of these, there are six
possible outcomes when rolling a die: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or
6. One way to list outcomes for actions occurring in a
sequence is to use a tree diagram.
Tree diagram:
H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
Simple event
• An event that consists of a single outcome.
e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling a 3” {H3}
Solution:
Not simple (event B has three outcomes: rolling a 4, a 5,
or a 6)
Solution:
Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Frequency of event E f
• P( E )
Total frequency n
Subjective Probability
• Intuition, educated guesses, and estimates.
• e.g. A doctor may feel a patient has a 90% chance of a
full recovery.
Solution:
Subjective probability (most likely an educated guess)
Solution:
Empirical probability (most likely based on a survey)
Solution:
Classical probability (equally likely outcomes)
Even
Impossible Unlikely chance Likely Certain
[ ]
0 0.5 1
Complement of event E
• The set of all outcomes in a sample space that are not
included in event E.
• Denoted E ′ (E prime)
• P(E) + P(E ′) = 1
• P(E) = 1 – P(E ′) E′
• P(E ′) = 1 – P(E) E
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8
4 1
P(tossing a tail and spinning an odd number) = 0.25
16 4
Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event occurring, given that
another event has already occurred
• Denoted P(B | A) (read “probability of B, given A”)
Solution:
Because the first card is a king and is not replaced, the
remaining deck has 51 cards, 4 of which are queens.
4
P( B | A) P(2 card is a Queen |1 card is a King )
nd st
0.078
51
Independent events
• The occurrence of one of the events does not affect
the probability of the occurrence of the other event
• P(B | A) = P(B) or P(A | B) = P(A)
• Events that are not independent are dependent
Solution:
4
P( B | A) P(2nd card is a Queen |1st card is a King )
51
4
P( B) P(Queen)
52
Dependent (the occurrence of A changes the probability
of the occurrence of B)
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 41 of 88
Example: Independent and Dependent
Events
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
2. Tossing a coin and getting a head (A), and then
rolling a six-sided die and obtaining a 6 (B).
Solution:
1
P( B | A) P(rolling a 6 | head on coin)
6
1
P( B) P(rolling a 6)
6
Solution:
The probability that each knee surgery is successful is
0.85. The chance for success for one surgery is
independent of the chances for the other surgeries.
P(3 surgeries are successful) = (0.85)(0.85)(0.85)
≈ 0.614
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 49 of 88
Example: Using the Multiplication Rule
Solution:
Because the probability of success for one surgery is
0.85. The probability of failure for one surgery is
1 – 0.85 = 0.15
P(none of the 3 surgeries is successful) = (0.15)(0.15)(0.15)
≈ 0.003
Solution:
“At least one” means one or more. The complement to
the event “at least one is successful” is the event “none
are successful.” Using the complement rule
P(at least 1 is successful) = 1 – P(none are successful)
≈ 1 – 0.003
= 0.997
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 53 of 88
Example: Using the Multiplication Rule to
Find Probabilities
More than 15,000 U.S. medical school seniors applied to
residency programs in 2009. Of those, 93% were matched
with residency positions. Eighty-two percent of the seniors
matched with residency positions were matched with one of
their top three choices. Medical students electronically rank
the residency programs in their order of preference, and
program directors across the United States do the same. The
term “match” refers to the process where a student’s
preference list and a program director’s preference list
overlap, resulting in the placement of the student for a
residency position. (Source: National Resident Matching
Program) (continued)
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 54 of 88
Example: Using the Multiplication Rule to
Find Probabilities
1. Find the probability that a randomly selected senior was
matched with a residency position and it was one of the
senior’s top three choices.
Mutually exclusive
• Two events A and B cannot occur at the same time
A
A B
B
Solution:
Mutually exclusive (The first event has one outcome, a
3. The second event also has one outcome, a 4. These
outcomes cannot occur at the same time.)
Solution:
Not mutually exclusive (The student can be a male
nursing major.)
Solution:
The events are mutually exclusive (if the card is a 4, it
cannot be an ace) Deck of 52 Cards
P(4 or ace) P(4) P(ace) 4♣
4 4 4♥
4♠ A♣
52 52 4♦ A♠ A♥
8 A♦
0.154 44 other cards
52
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 67 of 88
Example: Using the Addition Rule
Solution:
The events are not mutually exclusive (1 is an
outcome of both events) Roll a Die
4 6
Odd Less than
3 1 three
5 2
16
0.444
36
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 71 of 88
Example: Using the Addition Rule
A blood bank catalogs the types of blood, including
positive or negative Rh-factor, given by donors during
the last five days. A donor is selected at random. Find
the probability that the donor has type O or type A
blood.
Solution:
The events are not mutually exclusive (a donor can have
type B blood and be Rh-negative)
P(type B or Rh neg)
P(type B) P(Rh neg) P(type B and Rh neg)
45 65 8 102
0.249
409 409 409 409
Permutation
• An ordered arrangement of objects
• The number of different permutations of n distinct
objects is n! (n factorial)
n! = n∙(n – 1)∙(n – 2)∙(n – 3)∙ ∙ ∙3∙2 ∙1
0! = 1
Examples:
• 6! = 6∙5∙4∙3∙2∙1 = 720
• 4! = 4∙3∙2∙1 = 24
Solution:
The number of permutations is
9!= 9∙8∙7∙6∙5∙4∙3∙2∙1 = 362,880 ways
Solution:
• You need to select 4 digits from a group of 10
• n = 10, r = 4
10! 10!
10 P4
(10 4)! 6!
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
6 5 4 3 2 1
5040 ways
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 82 of 88
Example: Finding nPr
Forty-three race cars started the 2007 Daytona 500.
How many ways can the cars finish first, second, and
third?
Solution:
• You need to select 3 cars from a group of 43
• n = 43, r = 3
43! 43!
43 P3
(43 3)! 40!
43 42 41
74, 046 ways
Distinguishable Permutations
• The number of distinguishable permutations of n
objects where n1 are of one type, n2 are of another
type, and so on
■ n!
n1 ! n2 ! n3 ! nk !
where n1 + n2 + n3 +∙∙∙+ nk = n
16!
16 C4
(16 4)!4!
16!
12!4!
16 15 14 13 12!
12! 4 3 2 1
1820 different combinations
1
P( Mississippi) 0.00003
34650
C
400 4
31,049,370
0.030
1,050,739,900