Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear

Deal
• Introduction
– he Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict is the ongoing
struggle for regional influence between the Islamic
Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

– The countries have provided varying degrees of

support to opposing sides in nearby conflicts,
including the civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and
Iraq, as well as conflicts in Central Asia and Pakistan.
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
• Background
– The conflict can be traced back to the Iranian Revolution in
1979, when Imperial Iran became an Islamic Republic.

– The revolutionaries called specifically for the ousting of

monarchies and secular regimes to be replaced with Islamic
republics, much to the alarm of its smaller Sunni-run Arab
neighbors Iraq (then under the Ba'athists), Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
and the other Persian Gulf States – most of whom were
monarchies and all of whom had sizable Shia populations

– Prior to the Iranian Revolution, the two countries constituted

the Nixon Doctrine's "twin pillar" policy in the Middle East
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– The monarchies, particularly Iran, were allied with the US to ensure
stability in the Gulf region and act as a bulwark against Soviet
influence during the Arab Cold War

– The alliance acted as a moderating influence on the Saudi-Iranian

rivalry

– Saudi Arabia sponsored an international Islamic conference in Mecca

in 1962.

– It created the Muslim World League, dedicated to spreading Islam and

fostering Islamic solidarity.

– The League was "extremely effective" in promoting Islam, particularly

conservative Wahhabi Islam in the Muslim world.

– Saudi Arabia also spearheaded the creation of the Organisation of

Islamic Cooperation in 1969.
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– In 1980, Saddam Hussein attempted to take advantage of
revolutionary unrest in Iran and quell the revolution in its
infancy.

– Fearing a potential revolutionary wave that could threaten Iraq's

stability and embolden its Shia population, Hussein launched an
invasion on 20 September, triggering the Iran–Iraq War which
lasted for eight years and killed hundreds of thousands.

– During the war, Iraq received financial or military support from

neighboring countries including Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, in part to hedge
Iranian power and prevent the spread of its revolution.
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– Apart from the Iran–Iraq War, Iran and Saudi Arabia engaged in
tense competition elsewhere, supporting opposing armed
groups in the Lebanese Civil War, the Soviet–Afghan War, and
other conflicts.

– After the Cold War, Iran and Saudi Arabia continued to support
different groups and organizations along sectarian lines such as
in Iraq and Yemen

– The Arab Spring in 2011 sparked a revolutionary wave across the

Middle East, leading to revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen
as well as the civil wars in Libya and Syria.

– In response, Saudi Arabia called for the formation of a Gulf

Union to deepen ties among the member states of the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC).
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
– The proposal reflected the Saudi government's preoccupation with
preventing potential uprisings by disenfranchised minorities in the
Gulf monarchies as well as its regional rivalry with Iran.

– The union would have centralized Saudi influence in the region by

giving it greater control over military, economic, and political matters
affecting member states.

– With the exception of Bahrain, other members rejected the proposed

federation, with Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates
wary that it would lead to Saudi dominance.

– However, due to the decreasing importance of the Israeli–Palestinian

conflict as a wedge issue and mutual tensions with Iran, GCC states
have sought strengthened economic and security cooperation with
Israel, who is involved in its own proxy conflict with Iran.
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
– Saudi Arabia has also become increasingly concerned about the
United States' commitment as an ally and security guarantor.

– The American foreign policy pivot to Asia, its lessening reliance on

Saudi oil, and the potential of rapprochement with Iran have all
contributed to a more assertive Saudi foreign policy.

– The onset of the Arab Winter exacerbated Saudi concerns about Iran
as well as its own internal stability.

– The surrounding revolutions and civil wars prompted Riyadh to take

greater action to maintain the status quo, particularly within Bahrain
and other bordering states, with its new foreign policy being described
as a "21st century version of the Brezhnev Doctrine.“

– The complex nature of economic and security concerns, ideological

division, and intertwined alliances has also drawn comparisons to pre-
World War I Europe.
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
• Nuclear programs of Iran and Saudi Arabia
– Saudi Arabia has taken the “strategic decision” to acquire “off-the-
shelf” atomic weapons from Pakistan, risking a new arms race in the
Middle East, according to senior American officials.

– In 2003, public policy think tank GlobalSecurity.org reported that

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had entered a secret agreement on nuclear
cooperation to provide the Saudis with nuclear-weapons technology in
return for access to cheap oil for Pakistan.

– Iran has had a nuclear program since the 1950s and after the rise of
the Islamic revolutionary regime in 1979, the new government
continued to pursue a nuclear program.

– Both governments claim that their programs are for peaceful purposes
but foreign governments and organizations have accused both
countries of taking steps in order to obtain nuclear weapons
capabilities.
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
– The countries where both Saudi Arabia and Iran
are involved are as follows.
– Bahrian
– Syria
– Yemen
– Iraq
– Afghanistan
– Pakistan
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
• Recent events
• The 2015 Mina stampede in Mecca during the annual Hajj
pilgrimage further inflamed tensions.

• Tehran blamed the Saudi government for the tragedy and accused
them of incompetence, which Riyadh rejected.

• In May 2016 Iran suspended participation in the upcoming Hajj.

• In September, Saudi Arabia launched a 24-hour Persian language

satellite channel to broadcast the Hajj proceedings from 10 to 15
September.

• Ayatollah Khamenei accused Riyadh of politicizing the Hajj tragedy

and argued that Saudi Arabia should not be running the pilgrimage.
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
• On 2 January 2016, 47 people were put to death in several
Saudi cities, including prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

• Protesters of the executions responded by demonstrating

in Iran’s capital, Tehran. That same day a few protesters
would eventually ransack the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and
later set it ablaze.

• Police donned riot gear and arrested 40 people during the

incident. In response, Saudi Arabia, along with its allies,
Bahrain, Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia, and the Comoros cut
diplomatic ties with Iran.
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
• Iran's foreign ministry responded by saying the Saudis were using the
incident as a pretext for fueling tensions

• The rule of King Salman has brought about a more assertive Saudi foreign
policy, particularly reflected in the country's intervention in Yemen.

• Iran-Russia closer ties

• Sectarian tensions in the region being fueld by the two.

• US policy under Trump – Saudi wants US to rollback Obama policy towards

Iran, which was considered too soft.

• Iran also wants to mend fences with global community to improve

economic relation under president Rouhani.
Iran/Saudi Arabia Conflict, Iran Nuclear
Deal
• Conclusion