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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 2
Chapter 9
Hypothesis Testing
Tests About a Population Proportion
Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
Calculating the Probability of Type II Errors
Determining the Sample Size for a Hypothesis Test
about a Population Mean
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 3
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 4
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 5
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 6
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 7
A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses about a Population Mean
The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population mean must take one of the following
three forms (where 0 is the hypothesized value of
the population mean).
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 8
Example: Metro EMS
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 9
Example: Metro EMS
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 11
Example: Metro EMS
Population Condition
H0 True Ha True
Conclusion ( ) ( )
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 12
The Use of p-Values
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 13
The Steps of Hypothesis Testing
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 14
One-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean:
Large-Sample Case (n > 30)
Hypotheses
H0: or H0:
Ha: Ha:
Test Statistic
Known Unknown
x 0 x 0
z z
/ n s/ n
Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if z > zReject H0 if z < -z
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 15
Example: Metro EMS
Sampling distribution
of x (assuming H0 is
true and = 12) Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0
1.645 x
x
12 c
(Critical value)
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 16
Example: Metro EMS
Reject H0
z
0 1.645 2.47
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 18
Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean:
Large-Sample Case (n > 30)
Hypotheses
H0:
Ha:
Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if |z| > z
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 19
Example: Glow Toothpaste
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 20
Example: Glow Toothpaste
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 21
Example: Glow Toothpaste
z
-1.96 0 1.96
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 22
Example: Glow Toothpaste
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 25
Example: Glow Toothpaste
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 26
Tests about a Population Mean:
Small-Sample Case (n < 30)
Test Statistic Known Unknown
x 0 x 0
t t
/ n
s/ n
This test statistic has a t distribution with n - 1
degrees of freedom.
Rejection Rule
One-Tailed Two-Tailed
H0: Reject H0 if t > t
H0: Reject H0 if t < -t
H0: Reject H0 if |t| > t
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 27
p -Values and the t Distribution
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 28
Example: Highway Patrol
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 29
Example: Highway Patrol
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 30
Summary of Test Statistics to be Used in a
Hypothesis Test about a Population Mean
Yes No
n > 30 ?
No
s known ? Popul.
Yes
approx.
Yes normal
Use s to
estimate s No ?
s known ?
No
Yes Use s to
estimate s
x x x x Increase n
z z z t
/ n s/ n / n s/ n to > 30
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 31
A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses about a Population Proportion
The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population proportion p must take one of the
following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized
value of the population proportion).
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 32
Tests about a Population Proportion:
Large-Sample Case (np > 5 and n(1 - p) > 5)
Test Statistic p p0
z
p
where: p0 (1 p0 )
p
n
Rejection Rule
One-Tailed Two-Tailed
H0: p p Reject H0 if z > z
H0: p p Reject H0 if z < -z
H0: pp Reject H0 if |z| > z
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 33
Example: NSC
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 34
Example: NSC
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 35
Example: NSC
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 36
Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 37
Calculating the Probability of a Type II Error
in Hypothesis Tests about a Population Mean
1. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Use the level of significance to establish a rejection
rule based on the test statistic.
3. Using the rejection rule, solve for the value of the
sample mean that identifies the rejection region.
4. Use the results from step 3 to state the values of the
sample mean that lead to the acceptance of H0; this
defines the acceptance region.
5. Using the sampling distributionxof for any value of
from the alternative hypothesis, and the
acceptance region from step 4, compute the
probability that the sample mean will be in the
acceptance region.
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 38
Example: Metro EMS (revisited)
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 39
Example: Metro EMS (revisited)
12.8323
z
Values of 3.2 / 40 1-
14.0 -2.31 .0104 .9896
13.6 -1.52 .0643 .9357
13.2 -0.73 .2327 .7673
12.83 0.00 .5000 .5000
12.8 0.06 .5239 .4761
12.4 0.85 .8023 .1977
12.0001 1.645 .9500 .0500
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 40
Example: Metro EMS (revisited)
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 41
Power of the Test
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 42
Determining the Sample Size
for a Hypothesis Test About a Population Mean
( z z ) 2 2
n
( 0 a )2
where
z = z value providing an area of in the tail
z = z value providing an area of in the tail
= population standard deviation
0 = value of the population mean in H0
a = value of the population mean used for the
Type II error
Note: In a two-tailed hypothesis test, use z /2 not z
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 43
Relationship among , , and n
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 44
End of Chapter 9
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Inferencial Statistics/Chp 09 - Hypothesis Testing/ Astrid Maria Ester
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti Slide 45