Debating Effective Solution for

Water Constrained Future of

Pakistan

Dr. Zaigham Habib

 Water Debate

1.Pakistan in Global Context

2.Natural Water Scenario
3.Understanding Future Constraints
4.Some of the Solutions
 Need for a Debate
Debate, dialogue and consultation - different
communication processes
Debate (argue, question, disagree, learn) –
scientific & issue specific, leads to opinion
formation & selection of solutions
Dialogue (discourse, convey) – bringing close
diverse interests and stakeholders
Consultation (discuss, exchange ideas, get 2nd
opinion) - a tool to refine solutions
 Lack of Debates in water Sector
Argue, question, disagree  formulate solutions and options

1. Diverse technical opinions are least discussed

– leading to limited solutions and narrow
perceptions
2. Scientific options not taken neutrally
3. Too much consumed by the fear of talking
about “bad solutions/ options”
4. A dilemma of not accepting scientific diversity
 Fresh Water – Global Picture

Where is this 0.5 % of fresh water?

10^6 km3 stored in aquifers.
11.9 103 km3 net rainfall falling after accounting for evaporation.
• 91*103 km3 in natural lakes
• 5 103 km3 in man made storage -7 fold increase since 1950.
• 2,120 km3 in rivers – constantly replaced from rainfall and melting snow
and ice.
 m3/ person / year 2000

0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
Maldives
Singapore
Bahrain
Israel
Oman
Burundi
Antigua and
South Africa
Burkina Faso
Ethiopia
Pakistan
Czech Republic
India
China
Germany
Togo
Niger
United Kingdom
Ukraine
France
Iraq
Cuba
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Sudan
Chad
Philippines
Portugal
Switzerland
Botswana
Kyrgyz Republic
Physical water scarcity --

United States of
Ireland
Turkmenistan
Honduras
Georgia
Estonia
Per Capita Gross Renewable water 2000

Guinea-Bissau
Serbia and
Latvia
Brunei
Sierra Leone
Cambodia
Uruguay
Panama
Equatorial Guinea
Chile
Peru
Canada
 m3/ person /year

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Uganda
Rwanda
Angola
Mozambique
Cape Verde
Kenya
Cameroon
Eritrea
Malawi
Fiji
Latvia
Honduras
Tanzania
Jamaica
Guatemala
Mongolia
El Salvador
Slovakia
Equatorial Guinea
Nicaragua
Panama
Ireland
Sweden
Israel
Brazil
Philippines
Qatar
A water based Economy ---

Lebanon
Per Capita Withdrawal

Morocco
China
Laos
New Zealand
Turkey
France
India
Myanmar
Belgium
Cuba
Argentina
Greece
Georgia
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Sudan
Pakistan
Macedonia
Thailand
United States of
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Irrigation per Hectare close to World Average
Physical and economic water scarcity
Per capita
Eastern rivers
Groundwater catchments

Some Facts
Area: 803,940 km2
Population: 160 million
Climate: Arid; variable
rainfall, river inflows &
groundwater quality
 Gross Available Water

Rainfall = Avg. 45 MAF (30 to 90 MAF)

Rivers Inflow = 135 MAF (average 1978 – 2006)
Groundwater = 50 to 60 MAF
 Monthly Inflow of high and low flow years
Tarbella
21
1959-60
Monthly Inflow (maf)

1974-75
14
1973-74
2001-02
7

0
MAY

MAR
AUG

NOV

JAN
APR

OCT

FEB
SEP

DEC
JUN

JUL
 Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India –
as a result of Indus Water Treaty

Eastern Rivers Ravi and Sutlej component at Balloki and

Sulamanki
42

35 Ravi + Sutlej
Annual flows in maf

28 Expon. (Ravi
2
+
21 Sutlej) R = 0.56
14

0
1961-62

1963-64

1965-66

1967-68

1969-70

1971-72

1973-74

1975-76

1977-78

1979-80

1981-82

1983-84

1985-86

1987-88

1989-90

1991-92

1993-94

1995-96

1997-98

1999-00

2001-02

2003-04
 Indus Rivers Annual Outflow versus Inflow 1976 - 2006
100

90
1976-86
80
1986-96
Outflow below kotri - MAF

70 1996-2006

60 R2 = 0.86

50

40

30
R2 = 0.72
20
R2 = 0.94
10

0
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

Inflow in MAF
 No of wells

0
200
400
600
800

1950 Thousands
Million acre feet (MAF)

1960

0
30
60
1965
1950
1970
1960
Tubewells

1975
Total reported

1970 1980

1985
1980
1990
1990
1995
Tubewell Growth in Pakistan Since 1950

1998 2000
Estimated Groundwater Extraction

2005
2001
2007
2004
Changed Ecology along the Rivers
The riverine natural vegetation and non-irrigated
agriculture is replaced by the well irrigation.
The flood based forest have severely damaged
during recent drought years
 Increased uses
from rivers and
decreased
drainage inflow
Computed net Losses rivers and link canals as a
can cause
0
function of Gross I nflow local floods
River Losses as a function

2
R = 0.75
of Inflow + rain

-25

-50
120 170 220 270 320 370
Gross Annual Inflow (Riv er+rain)

'selected y ears 1974 to 1997 Losses 1998-2000

 Average Groundwater Levels Punjab

1978

1984

1992

1998
1980
1982

1986
1988
1990

1994
1996
Groundwater Aquifer
Depth to water table (cm)

350
Many issues
Actual potential
400
Limited monitoring grid

450 Sustainability of use

patterns

500
High value for farmers
Average aquife r depth - pre monsoon Control mechanism

J-96

J-00
J-78
J-80
J-82
J-84
J-86
J-88
J-90
J-92
J-94

J-98
From the ground in cm

350
M A ILSI

L-DEPALPUR
450

550

650
Demand in 2025 crossing total availability
 Water Constrained Future
1. Permanent Physical Scarcity - population
2. Most of the water has already been utilized
3. Natural water cushions depleting
4. Water based economy – high manpower, low
productivity
5. Hydropower, a most efficient user dependent on
surface storages
6. New water use sectors are emerging
7. Skewed spatio-temporal water availability and
potential
8. Climate Changes
Towards Solutions
 Meeting demands of Socio economic and
environment sectors
Solution in hand - surface storage
• Good Scope for hydropower
• Limited water for agriculture from storage
• Domestic & infrastructure big claimers in future
• Environmental needs – an essential area to be
considered
 Expanding Management Approaches

Conventional
Linear cause-effect solutions

Scope limited, problems deep-rooted

Replicability assuming neutral Context
(conservation & drainage technologies, farm practices, crops selection etc.)
Complex drivers of change and management

Comprehensive adaptive
Manage the Cause as well

Protect resource base and long term resilience

Effective demand management
Diversification of water-intensive production
Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource
Base – in quantity

Trans-boundary waters - expanding strategy

Sacrosanct Indus Water Treaty cannot stop India from
planning 11 projects on western rivers;
– Establish need of western flood water in Pakistan
– Let people talk about negative impacts of IWT on Pakistan
side

Natural Water cycle must be maintained for resilience

Protect all water bodies; rivers, lakes and flood plains
Groundwater aquifer – artificial recharge in fresh zone
minimize/drain effluent in saline area
 Quality Management and control
Many Grey Areas
Industrial and urban effluents to rivers and lakes –
treat at source, reuse

 waste water treatment – set examples

Drainage management – lessons learned?
Drainage functions of rivers and main canals
Groundwater quality – exact issue ?
Leaching of agri lands
Excess water used in saline areas
 Productivity of water in Agriculture
• Conservation - canal lining big initiative, 50% complete
• Field level water efficient technologies new initiative
• Value addition increasing trends

• Talking about “green to gene revolution”

Yet,
• The yield of major crops stagnant
• Uncertainty for farmers has increased
• Public sector investments increasing and essential
 Food security & Agriculture

 National policy about produce, market and trade

 Food security important because of declining
production of wheat in USA & Australia,
 Within Pakistan traditional grain areas are
shifting towards oil seeds, vegetables, fruits &
maize
 A link between livelihood oriented small marginal
farming and food grain production consistent
 Potential of rain-fed and saline areas
Average Crop Yields in Pakistan and other Countries tons/hectare 2005
wheat Rice Cotton sugarcane Maize

World 2.91 4.0 1.95 65.6 4.75

Punjab India 4.39 3.40 0.31 60.96 2.49

India average 2.67 3.0 0.8 69.95 1.9

China 4.23 6.27 3.38 66.01 5.1

Egypt 6.01 9.5 2.6 61.95 8.0

Pakistan 2.59 2 2.3 48.91 2.85
 Production / ha (US$)

0
100
200
300
400
500
U.C.C
M-R-LINK
C.B.D.C.
DPR UP
DPR LOW
L.C.C East
L.C.C West
LCC
U.J.C
L.J.C
Thal
L.B.D.C
Haveli Sidhnai
Mailsi
Pakpatan
Fordwah
Eastern Sadiqia
Qaim
Abbasia
GVP/CCA

Bahawal
Panjnad
D.G.Khan
Muzzafargar
Rangpur

PAT & Desert

Begari
Ghotki
North West
Rice canal
Dadu
GVP /CCA

Khairpur West
Khairpur East
Rohri
Nara
Kalri
Lined Canal
Fulili
Pinyari
 Water depth for CCA (mm)

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
U.C.C
M-R-LINK
C.B.D.C.
DPR UP
DPR LOW
L.C.C East
L.C.C West
LCC
U.J.C
L.J.C
Thal
L.B.D.C
Haveli Sidhnai
Mailsi
Pakpatan
Fordwah
Eastern Sadiqia
Qaim
Abbasia
Bahawal
Panjnad
D.G.Khan
Muzzafargar
Rangpur
Canal Supplies in mm

PAT & Desert

Begari
Ghotki
North West
Rice canal
Dadu
Khairpur West
Khairpur East
Rohri
Nara
Kalri
Lined Canal
Fulili
Pinyari
 Actual Et in mm

0
400
800
1200
1600
U.C.C
M-R-LINK
C.B.D.C.
DPR UP
DPR LOW
L.C.C East
L.C.C West
LCC
U.J.C
L.J.C
Thal
L.B.D.C
Haveli
Mailsi
Pakpatan
Fordwah
Eastern
Qaim
Abbasia
Bahawal
Panjnad
D.G.Khan
Muzzafargar
Rangpur
PAT &
Begari
Ghotki
North West
Rice canal
Dadu
Khairpur
Evapotranspiration from Gross Command area

Khairpur
Rohri
Nara
Kalri
Lined Canal
Fulili
Pinyari
 Gross Value of Production- Rabi 1994-95

21000
GVP- PAK Rs/ha

14000
Average = 6053 Rs/ha
7000

0
1 34 67 100 133 166 199 232 265 298 331 364 397 430 463 496 529

Farm numbers
Meeting Agriculture Targets
• Economically feasible agriculture model for
small farms (inputs, technologies, markets)
• Protect high efficiency groundwater -recharge
• Crop zoning
• Low water use and salinity tolerant crops
• Livestock sub-sector
• New opportunities for rural labor force shifting
from farming; agro-based industry, local
business
Domestic, infrastructure supplies
A big future Challenge

Safe drinking water promised to all

Municipal supplies to big cities, semi-
urban and advance rural areas
New infrastructure and down
developments
 Scenario Potable I: Only drinking water requirements
Potable-I Min.
750
Potable-I Max.
million gallons per day

650
Urban = 2.5 gallon/cap/day
550 rural = 2.0

450

350
1.5 gallon/c/d
250

150
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
 Sanitation scenarios based on minimum survival
level and high water demand assumptions
14000
Sanitation min. requirements
Million gallons per day

12000
Sanitation high requirement
10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
 Domestic requirements based on current municipal supply
and urbanization trends
24

Rural BCM Urban BCMs

Gross annual bcm

18

12

0
1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2030 2040 2050
From where this water will come?
1. Main storages – needs for allocation,
transfer from agriculture
 From Existing canal system – some
allocations in saline areas, more will be
required for new projects
 Local surface resources: small rivers,
lakes – replacement or protection
 Groundwater – largest access, quality
and quantity threatened
 Approach for domestic supply
management
• Protect quality of all water resources
• Priority to local resources
• Allocate and account all uses

Demand side measures can not be postponed

• Capacity of household appliances
• Rain harvesting wherever possible
• Control on infrastructure, commercial uses
• Household waste management
• Pricing
 Regional Context

NWFP: high allocations after seventies, natural

drainage collapsing, pollution of water bodies, local
water access.

Lower Indus: Saline, waterlogged, low rainfall,

riverine cultivation not sustainable, shift towards
perennial crops, livelihood dependence on wetlands,
lakes & unallocated resources high, demand for delta

Punjab: water shortage in cash crop areas,

cultivation extending outside canal irrigated area,
groundwater depleting, recharge sources decreasing,
rivers pollution and dry conditions.

Balochistan: groundwater fast depleting, local

harvesting not reliable, domestic and sanitation
 Sustainable Future

• Protectionist approach (how, where, why ???)

• Actions at regional, local and users levels
(water-wise societies, incentives, capacities and
regulation)
• National capacity to define issues and select
sustainable solutions (drivers of management)
• Knowledge to integrate empirical trends and
scientific models (who needs it? Public sector,
users, donors?)
Thank You