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Inferential Statistics
Inferential statistics is concerned with
drawing conclusions and/or making
decisions concerning a population based
only on sample data.
Main functions of inferential
statistics:
1.estimate population
parameters
2.test statistical hypotheses
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Inferential Statistics
http://www.gohomeworkhelp.com/admin/photos/what-is-inferential-statistics.jpg
An estimator of a population
parameter is a random variable
that depends on sample
information whose value provides
an approximation to this unknown
parameter.
A specific value of that random
variable is called an estimate.
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Point Estimation
Point estimation
is the process of
finding a point
estimate from a
random sample of a
population to
approximate a
parameter value.
The statistic value
that approximates aCABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Point Estimation
The point
estimate is the
BEST GUESS or
the BEST
ESTIMATE of an
unknown
(fixed or
random)
population
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Point Estimation
Sample
Population
Statistic
MEASURE Value
(POINT
(PARAMETER)
ESTIMATE)
Mean x
Standard
deviation s
Proportion p p̂
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Point Estimation
Notes:
1. Don’t expect that the point
estimate is exactly equal to the
population parameter.
2. Any point estimate used should
be as close as possible to the
true parameter.
3. Sampling should be done at
random, using a sample size that
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Point Estimation
The following are some
1 situations that use point
estimates:
a. (estimating a mean) A sample of 50
households is used to determine the
average number of children in a
household in a barangay.
b. (estimating a proportion) A sample of 50
households is used to determine the
percentage of households in a barangay
watching a particular teleserye.
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Point Estimation
The SAMPLE MEAN x is used to
2 estimate the population mean .
The following are the lengths of seedlings in a
plant box. We want to estimate the mean length
of the seedlings.
Point Estimation
Estimate the mean length using the
2 following:
a)average of the row averages
b)average of the column averages
c)using the average of the first row
d)using the average of the last two
columns
Point Estimation
To determine the average monthly
3 income of factory workers of a CEPZ
company, ten workers were randomly
sampled. Their monthly incomes (in
thousand pesos) are shown in the table.
Calculate the point
Monthly Income
estimate for the Income
Monthly
Worker Worker
average monthly income.
(thousand pesos) (thousand pesos)
1 11.5 6 11.5
2 10 7 12
3 9.5 8 10.5
4 9 9 11.5
5 10 10 9
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Point Estimation
Find the point estimate of the
4 proportion of private school
teachers who are LET passers in a
city given that 480 out of a sample
of 600 randomly selected teachers
passed the LET.
Point Estimation
Find the point estimate of the
5 proportion of the number of junior
high school students who owns at
least one cell phone given the
following sample: Number of
Number of students surveyed
Grade
students surveyed with at least one
cell phone
7 10 9
8 15 11
9 25 16
10 20 14
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Interval Estimation
An interval estimate is a range of
values used to approximate a
population parameter. This estimate
may or may not contain the actual
value of the parameter being
An interval estimate has two
estimated.
components:
1.a range or interval of values
2. an associated level of confidence
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Interval Estimation
Why use an interval
estimate instead?
• Using a point estimate, while
unbiased, poses a degree of
uncertainty. There is no way of
expressing the degree of accuracy
of a point estimate.
• An interval estimate provides
more information about a
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Levels
The confidence
level c of an
interval estimate
is the probability
that the
parameter is
contained in the
interval CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Levels
The value of c is given
1-
by
where represents a
level of significance,
which indicates the long-
run percentage of
confidence intervals
which would include the
parameter being
estimated.
The value of the level of
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Levels
The significance of the level of
significance
The level of significance represents
a probability of lack of confidence;
that is, the probability of NOT
capturing the value of a population
parameter in the interval estimate.
The confidence level c = 1 - ,
meanwhile represents the probability
of confidence that the population
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Levels
The significance of the level of
significance probability that
1- lies in the
interval
estimate
probability that
does NOT lie
in the interval
estimate
z
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
A confidence interval is a specific
interval estimate of a parameter
determined by using data obtained
from a sample and by using the
specific confidence level of the
estimate.
http://blog.minitab.com/blog/adventures-in-statistics/understanding-hypothesis-tests:-confidence-intervals-and-confidence-levels
Confidence Intervals
Notes:
1. For a parameter , if P(a < < b) = 1
- , then the interval a < < b is
called a 100(1 - )% confidence
interval of .
2. In repeated samples of the
population, the true value of the
parameter would be contained in
100(1 - )% of intervals calculated
this way.
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
REGION OF CONFIDENCE
100(1 - )% of all intervals contain the value of
2 1- 2
̂
̂ 's
Distribution of
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
Illustration:
A 95% confidence
interval of a population
mean means that 95%
of the samples from the
same population will
produce the same
confidence intervals that
Also, this means that
contain the value of .
1 - = 0.95
so = 0.05 is the
level of significance. http://www.statistica.com.au/confidence_interval.html
Confidence Intervals
Illustration:
Confidence Intervals
Determine the confidence level for
6 the following levels of significance:
Level of
Confidence
Significanc
Level
e
= 0.10 c = 1 - = 1 - 0.10 = 0.90 = 90%
Confidence Intervals
Determine the levels of
7 significance for the following
confidence levels:
Confidence Level of
Level Significance
Confidence Intervals
Important parts of a confidence
interval Width of
confidence interval
Lower Upper
Confidenc Confidenc
Point e
e
Estimate Limit
Limit CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
General Formula for Confidence
Intervals
The general formula for all confidence
intervals is given by:
� Point � �
Reliability�
�Standard�
� ��� �
� �
Estimate� � Factor �
� � Error �
The value of the reliability factor
depends on the desired level of
confidence.
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
General Formula for Confidence
Intervals
https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat504/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat504/files/lesson01/simple_expres_CI.gif
Confidence Intervals
General Formula for Confidence
Intervals
Usually, the general formula for a
confidence ˆ �E
interval ̂
is written as where is the
estimate of the
In INEQUALITY FORM, the confidence
parameter and E is the margin of error.
interval of a parameter is given by
ˆ - E < < ˆ + E
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
Population Population
Mean Proportion
Known Unknown
Confidence Intervals for
the Population Mean
for Known and Unknown Variances
Estimation of Parameters
To construct an interval
estimate for the population
mean, we use
1.a point estimate for the
mean.
2.a margin of error.
x -E< < x +E
where E is the margin of error
dependent on a given
confidence level.
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
x -E x +E
Lower Population Upper
Confidence Mean Confidence
Limit Limit
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
1-
2 2
100 ( 1 - ) %
X
x -E x +E
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
2
3<<5 5-3= 2 E= =1
2
1.8
2.5 < < 4.3 4.3 - 2.5 = 1.8 E= = 0.9
2
1.84
35.08 < < 36.92 36.92 - 35.08 = 1.84 E= = 0.92
2
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
A confidence interval for a
population mean with a known
standard deviation is based on
the fact that the sample means
follow an approximately
normal distribution.
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
2 2
1-
-z 0 z
2 2
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
2 1- 2
X
μx = μ
Intervals x1
extend from 100(1-)%
x -E
x2
of intervals
x3 constructed
to
contain μ;
x +E
M
xn-1 100()%
xn
do not.
Confidence
Intervals
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Value of E:
� � �1.5 �
E = z � �= ( 2.575 ) � ��0.64
2
�n� � 36 �
Check your
understanding
Compute the
margin of error for
the estimation of
the population
mean for a 90%
confidence with a
sample of size 400
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
We are 90%
confident that the
true population
mean lies
between 9.34 and
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
We are 95%
confident that the
true population
mean lies
between 9.22 and
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
5 Given:
x = 125, = 50, n = 150, c = 0.95
Value of : = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05
Value of z: z = z0.025 = 1.96
2
� � � 50 �
Value of E: E = z 2 � �= ( 1.96 ) � �= 8.00
�n� � 150 �
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
6
Given:
x = 5000, = 900, n = 400, c = 0.95
Value of : = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05
Value of z: z = z0.025 = 1.96
2
� � �900 �
Value of E: E = z 2 � �= ( 1.96 ) � �= 88.2
�n� � 400 �
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Confidence Intervals
CASE
7 Given: c = 0.95, E = 4, = 8
Note:
Value of : = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05 ROUND UP
your answer
Value of z: z = z0.025 = 1.96
2
2
( 1.96 ) ( 8 ) �
2
Minimum z
� 2 � �
sample size:
n = � �= �
�E � � 4 �= 15.37 �16
� � �
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
CASE
If the variance of a
8 national accounting
examination is 900, how
large a sample is needed
to estimate the true
mean score within 5
points with 99%
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence Intervals
CASE
Check your
understanding
Ehljie wants to conduct
study on the average
a