The Story of Delivery under Blair

Michael Barber

Moscow Higher School of Economics

December 2009
 “A mandate for
reform…an
instruction to deliver”

Tony Blair, on the meaning

of the General Election he
had just won by a landslide,
8 June 2001.

1
CAUSES OF FAILURE IN BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS

• Complacency
• Lack of guiding coalition
• Underestimating vision
• Under-communicating
• Not removing obstacles
• No short-term wins
• Declaring victory too soon
• Not changing the culture

SOURCE: John Kotter 2

CAUSES OF FAILURE IN GOVERNMENT

• Cynicism – track record of failure

• Multiple small projects
• Watered-down compromise
• Lack of persistence
• Institutional inertia
• Poor design
• Lack of clarity about goals
• Incompetence

SOURCE: Instruction to Deliver 3

… A MAP OF DELIVERY …

CONTROVERSY
TRANS-
WITHOUT
FORMATION
IMPACT

Boldness Successful
of reform delivery

IMPROVED
STATUS QUO
OUTCOMES

Quality of execution
4
… AND DEVELOPING AMONG STAFF AN
UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT DELIVERY REQUIRES

• Believe in step change

Ambition
• Get it done as well as possible

• Clear sustained priorities

Focus
• Avoiding distractions

• “Confront the brutal facts”

Clarity • Know what’s happening now
• Understand stakeholders

• People are impatient

Urgency • “If everything seems under control,
you’re not going fast enough”

• Structure, culture, results

Irreversibility
• Avoid celebrating success too soon

5
TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS
1. Determine priorities
2. Set targets/ define success
3. Understand the challenge
4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories
5. Understand the delivery chain
6. Build capacity at every level including the centre
7. Create routines
8. Solve problems as they arise
9. Establish the right relationships
10. Persist…
6
 An Asian government relied on collaborative
workshops and surveys to develop shared aspirations 3 Refine existing or
define new aspirations

A series of surveys with Cabinet …then the six areas were tested again The aspirations were
Ministers were used to develop through a second set of surveys with finalized as part of a
an initial list of six priority areas… Cabinet Ministers two-day delivery
workshop
No response
National government in Asia

National aspirations
No
Crime Do you agree with the Yes
following aspirations?* AGENDA – DAY 1
Corruption Welcome 9:00
Session 1 9:15
Working group 10:00
Education
**Break** 11:00
Share out 11:15
Poverty Lunch 12:00
Session 2 1:00

Transport
Crime Corr- Educ- Pov- Trans- Basic
Basic Infrastructure uption ation erty port infra-
structure

Because key officials were involved throughout the process,

the system leader knew aspirations were widely shared

* Numbers are not actuals

SOURCE: McKinsey delivery team
TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS
1. Determine priorities
2. Set targets/ define success
3. Understand the challenge
4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories
5. Understand the delivery chain
6. Build capacity at every level including the centre
7. Create routines
8. Solve problems as they arise
9. Establish the right relationships
10. Persist…
8
KEY QUESTIONS TO ANSWER IN A DELIVERY PLAN

• What is the service delivery chain?

• Who is accountable at the top . . . and all along the delivery chain?
• What are the key actions (milestones)?
• What is the timetable?
• Who are the key stakeholders? How will they be brought on board?
• What are the major risks? How will they be managed?
• What impact will the actions have on the key outcomes
(trajectories)?
• What data do you need? Will it be early enough to act if progress is
off track?

9
CONSTRUCTING A TRAJECTORY

Can you break

the data down
by policy?
Can you break What is the
the data down performance
by category? indicator?

Can you break

Constructing What is the
the data down
a trajectory target?
by locality?

How will you How will you

estimate the collect the
future? What is the data?
historic data
run?
10
POLICY DELIVERY – TRAJECTORIES

Delivery indicator Mid-trajectory

Low trajectory (policy High trajectory (policy
has a lagged impact) has an immediate impact)

Historical Starting Mid-term Long-term

performance Point delivery goal strategic goal
95
90 progress indicators
85
80
75
70
65
60 Policy Policy Policy
step A step B step C
0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Project plan streams
Project plan streams
11
A key tool in evaluating the activity’s implementation
is a delivery chain analysis

Delivery chain
Example: delivery system analysis for national literacy strategy in the UK Delivery system

Department National Agencies Local Agencies Frontline

Users and Citizens
Inspection and Reporting
School
inspection unit

Department of Policy School district School

National Strategy Parents
Education Direction 180 18,500
Pressure for
Independent Provi- improve-
Advice and Pupils
ders Other Schools ments
Support
Networks

Provided National
Testing authority Head Teachers
Testing Regime
Subject Leaders
Principal training Provided
agency Training

Built Strategy into Newly qualified

Teacher training
teachers
agency Training teaching assistants

SOURCE: USEDI Delivery Handbook

TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS
1. Determine priorities
2. Set targets/ define success
3. Understand the challenge
4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories
5. Understand the delivery chain
6. Build capacity at every level including the centre
7. Create routines
8. Solve problems as they arise
9. Establish the right relationships
10. Persist…
13
A delivery unit’s purpose, organization, and activities all must be directed
at helping the system achieve its aspirations

Purpose Organization Key activities

▪ Implement the aspirations ▪ Small, highly capable, ▪ Monitor progress toward

defined by the system leader
▪ Promote urgent and visible
action
▪ Amplify system leader’s
authority over actors in the
system
▪ Ensure forward momentum
toward aspiration, despite of
bureaucratic inertia
responsive group of people aspirations
– Collect and analyze
▪ Reports directly to the relevant data
system leader and has – Coordinate individuals to
leader’s visible backing make sure results are on
track
▪ Strong performance-driven,
results-oriented culture ▪ Report regularly to system
leader
▪ Take corrective action as
necessary to achieve
aspirations
TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS
1. Determine priorities
2. Set targets/ define success
3. Understand the challenge
4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories
5. Understand the delivery chain
6. Build capacity at every level including the centre
7. Create routines
8. Solve problems as they arise
9. Establish the right relationships
10. Persist…
15
Consider what is necessary to build support for
aspirations at each level of the system

1 Members of the
guiding coalition
4 Finally, the guiding
act as the first set of
coalition members help
core supporters and
ensure that end users
push others in the
and the public see the
system to support
impact of the change
the aspirations
Guiding
Coalition
2 Guiding coalition 3 Guiding coalition
members interact members model change
directly with mid- and communicate to the
tier leaders, broader workforce,
helping develop who have day-to-day
their commitment responsibility for driving
and capabilities to progress toward
achieve aspirations aspirations

Working from the center, the guiding coalition gradually

▪ Builds a widening network of relationships to deliver the system’s aspiration
▪ Develops leadership capacity throughout the system

SOURCE: John Kotter; Michael Fullan, The Six Secrets of Change

 Consider both immediate and long-term communication
needs, as stakeholders’ concerns likely will evolve

In the UK PMDU, stakeholders’ perspectives evolved over the course of the delivery effort

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

We’re not bold Real progress…

National government in Europe

Prime I know what I This is tough and At last some

Minister want…but we’re enough…all too the civil service results…what but why did all
so far from incremental needs to change should the next the drive have to
achieving it phase be like? come from my
office?

Ministers The Prime I feel huge It’s a real In the end, the Tough but
Minister’s agenda pressure from the battle…and the PMDU and worth it
is right…but the public and public and media targets ensured
pressure from Opposition to are never we stayed
him is relentless communicate. satisfied focused
How do I get this
department to
really deliver?

Top civil The minister Is this just about We seem to be We need to We’re proud of
servants drives us the election antagonizing develop our our results…but
hard…and the result…or people at the collective the next phase
staff don’t know transforming frontline capabilities will be harder
what to do Britain?
The problem of Autumn: Grinding
out improved rail reliability

18
RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED AN
ALL-TIME LOW AFTER THE HATFIELD CRASH IN OCTOBER 2000
National actual PPM (period data)

95%

90%

85%

80%
PPM

75%

70%

65% Hatfield crash

60%

55%
0%
Mar 97 Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04
Source: Department of Transport 19
RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED
A POST-HATFIELD PEAK THIS YEAR
National Public Performance Measure (PPM) – National actual PPM (period data)
National moving annual average
actual data against Moving Annual Average (MAA)
95%
Post Hatfield peak
90%

85%

80%
PPM

75%

70%

65% Hatfield crash

60%

55%
0%
Mar 97 Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04
Source: Department of Transport 20
RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED
A POST-HATFIELD PEAK THIS YEAR
National Public Performance Measure (PPM) – National actual PPM (period data)
National moving annual average
actual data against Moving Annual Average (MAA)
95%
Post Hatfield peak
90%

85%

80%
PPM

75%

70%

65% Hatfield crash

60% Autumn performance

almost at pre-Hatfield levels
55%
0%
Mar 97 Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04
Source: Department of Transport 21
RAIL: THE MESSAGES ARE CLEAR

1. Establish a shared goal

• Demanding and realistic
• Align key players around the goal

2. Manage performance
• Don’t just connect the data, use it
• Monthly reviews with each train operating company

3. It’s all in the detail

• Whistles and watches
• Joint Control Centres

4. Autumn shouldn’t be a surprise

• The weather is a variable
• Preparation should be constant

22
THE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK ENABLES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DELIVERY TO BE PREDICTED
Likelihood of delivery
Department …………………….
Recent
PSA Target …………………… performance
Judgement Rating Rationale summary

Degree of
challenge
Likelihood
Quality of planning,
implementation and of delivery
performance
management

Capacity to drive
progress

Stage of delivery

Red Highly problematic - requires urgent and decisive action

Amber/Red Problematic - requires substantial attention, some aspects need urgent action
Amber/Green Mixed - aspect(s) require substantial attention, some good
Green Good - requires refinement and systematic implementation
ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: EXAMPLE
Evidence for assessment Version 0.3
Jul-04 Recent performance
Department Dept A
Area PSA 4 Performance has
PSA level / PSA sub-
Level Delivery
target level / 2005 PSA level lifted from 91.1% for
Goal
the month of
January 2004 to
Overall 94.3% for the
Judgement Rationale summary
rating month of April 2004
The target is a complex one. This is due primarily to the agreement on a 5-point plan (to Clarify the
Target, Improve Incentives, Refocus Support from Agency , provide tools to improve and
strengthen Leadership & Performance) which is now being actively and effectively implemented.
Degree of Recent progress in two other areas further supports this reassessment. The xxxxx paper for
challenge VH launch in May will put the weight of the colleges behind the change in attitudes and new ways of
working required in order to deliver the target. The publication of the xxxx review also sets a clear
direction. Together they effect a step change in ability to overcome the key blockages impeding
target delivery.
There is now a single plan based on the core 5-point plan agreed with PMDU, a single agenda and
Quality of
a very solid infrastructure to the programme which ensures control of all contributing teams and
planning, strategies. Effective governance and rigorous measuring and monitoring of deliverables and Likelihood of
implementation,
and performance
AR performance are fully established alongside a comprehensive and well directed programme of
intervention in challenged areas. The management of risks and interdependencies is now well
delivery
management underway. Existing plans just need refinement and systematic implementation. Performance
management is already proving effective and will be deployed increasingly as the target date
approaches.

Capacity to
drive AG
A very effective leadership team have ensured that the right people, action plans, knowledge and
performance management are all in place for continuing progress on the 5-point plan to be
assured. Further capacity to drive is anticipated from the recruitment of an implementation
manager and being able to firm up the long term contribution and commitment of key resources.
AG
progress Phased incentives and the star ratings plus clear focus on this have provided the necessary levers
and put capacity to deliver on a firm footing.
The stage is borderline 2/3. Programme and project management and data collection and
Stage of monitoring are all fully established and there is full confidence that all of the necessary strategies
delivery 2 are now in place as a result of agreement on the 5-point plan. Stakeholder communication is good
and pressure and support are being successfully combined to drive implementation forwards.

Red Highly problematic - requires urgent and decisive action Additional Comments
Amber/Red Problematic - requires substantial attention, some aspects need urgent action We need to achieve 95% in June for the
Amber/Green Mixed - aspect(s) require substantial attention, some good overall rating not to move to amber/red

Green Good - requires refinement and systematic implementation

N Not enough evidence
24
THE DELIVERY REPORT: LEAGUE TABLE – JULY 2004

Overall
Assessment Criteria
Judgement

Quality of planning,
July 2004 Degree of implementation and Capacity to Stage of Likelihood of
Rank
Rank
Dept (out of
challenge performance drive progress Delivery Delivery
management 21)
V High
VH - H --High
M - L- Red - Amber/Red
R - AR - -AG
Amber/Green
-G - Red - Amber/Red
R - AR - AG - G- 1 -1 2Policy
-3-4 Red - Amber/Red
R - AR - AG - G-

25
PROGRESS ON THE PRIME MINISTER’S PRIORITIES CAN
BE SUMMARISED IN A LEAGUE TABLE
Overall
Assessment Criteria
Judgement
Rank
Quality of planning,
July 2004 Degree of implementation and Capacity to Stage of Likelihood of
Rank
(out
Dept (out
of of
challenge performance drive progress Delivery Delivery
management 21)
V High
VH - H --High
M - L- Red - Amber/Red
R - AR - -AG
Amber/Green
-G - Red - Amber/Red
R - AR - AG - G- 1 -1 2Policy
-3-4 Red - Amber/Red
R - AR - AG - G-
A PSA 1 L G G 3 G == 11
B PSA 2 L G AG 2 G == 11
C PSA 3 H AG AG 3 G 33
D PSA 4 H G AG 3 AG 44
A PSA 5 VH G AG 2 AG 55
B PSA 6 H AG AG 3 AG 66
C PSA 7 H AG AG 2 AG == 77
D PSA 8 H AG AG 3 AG == 77
A PSA 9 H AG AG 2 AG == 77
B PSA 10 VH AG AG 2 AG ==10
10
C PSA 11 VH AG AG 2 AG ==10
10
D PSA 12 H AR AG 3 AG 12
12
A PSA 13 VH AR AG 2 AR 13
13
B PSA 14 VH AG AR 2 AR ==14
14
C PSA 15 VH AG AR 2 AR ==14
14
D PSA 16 VH AR AR 2 AR ==16
16
A PSA 17 VH AR AR 2 AR ==16
16
B PSA 18 H AG AR 3 R ==18
18
C PSA 19 H AG AR 2 R ==18
18
D PSA 20 VH AG AR 3 R 20
20
A PSA 21 VH R R 2 R 21
21
26
A SIMPLE INDICATOR OF OVERALL PERFORMANCE
CAN BE DESIGNED
December 2003, %

47 53
BETWEEN DECEMBER 2003 AND JULY 2004 THERE WAS
A 15% SWING FROM RED TO GREEN …
July 2004, %

38

62
… AND BY DECEMBER 2004 A FURTHER 21% SWING
FROM RED TO GREEN
December 2004, %

17

83
TRANSFORMATION WILL DEPEND ON COMBINING
THREE ELEMENTS

Effective performance
The right mindset management Bold reform
• ‘Guiding coalition’ • Targets • Choice
• Shared vision • Sharp accountability • Personalisation
• Ambition • Good real-time data • Responsiveness to the
• Clear priorities • Best practice transfer community
• Ministerial consistency • Transparency • Contestability
• Urgency • Management against • Vibrant supply side
• Capacity to learn trajectory • Serious investment
rapidly • Capacity to intervene • 3 year funding for
• Collaboration across where necessary frontline
government • Incentives to reward • Flexible deployment of
success staff