STATISTICS AND

PROBABILITY
Lecture 10: Test of Hypotheses for a Single
Sample
Hypothesis
• Statistical hypothesis – a claim or assertion about the
parameters of one or more populations

• Hypothesis Testing – the decision-making procedure

about the hypothesis
Hypothesis

Statistical
Hypotheses

Null Alternative
Hypothesis (Ho) Hypothesis (Ha)

• Claim that is initially • Assertion that is contrary to

assumed to be true (“prior the null hypothesis
belief” claim) • Includes statements such
• Includes statements such as:
as: • There is a significant
• There is no significant difference
difference • Greater than, less
• Equal to than, not equal
Hypothesis
• Two-sided Alternative Hypothesis (Two-sided Test)
• A hypothesis is said to be a “two-sided alternative hypothesis” if the
statement includes not equal or there is a significant difference

• One-sided Alternative Hypothesis (One-sided Test)

• A hypothesis is said to be a “one-sided alternative hypothesis” if the
statement includes greater or less and other related vocabularies.
Test of Statistical Hypotheses
• Test statistic – a function of the sample data on which the
decision is to be based

• Rejection region – the set of all test statistics values for

which Ho will be rejected
• The null hypothesis will then be rejected if and only if the observed
value falls in to the rejection region

• Critical values – test statistic value(s) bounding the

acceptance and rejection region
Types of Statistical Errors
• Type I Error
• Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true

• Type II Error
• Failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false

Decision Ho is True Ho is False

Fail to reject Ho No error Type II error
Reject Ho Type I error No error
Types of Statistical Errors
• Significance level () – probability of making a type I error

𝛼 = 𝑃 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻𝑜 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐻𝑜 𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒)

• -error – probability of making a type II error

𝛽 = 𝑃 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = 𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻𝑜 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐻𝑜 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑒)

Properties of Type I and II Error
1. The size of the critical region, and consequently the probability of a
type I error , can always be reduced by appropriate selection of the
critical values.

2. Type I and type II errors are related. A decrease in the probability of

one type of error always results in an increase in the probability of
the other, provided that the sample size n does not change.

3. An increase in sample size will generally reduce both  and ,

provided that the critical values are held constant.

4. When the null hypothesis is false,  increases as the true value of

the parameter approaches the value hypothesized in the null
hypothesis. The value of  decreases as the difference between
the true mean and the hypothesized value increases.
Power of a Statistical Test
• The power of a statistical test (P) is the probability of
rejecting the null hypothesis Ho when the alternative
hypothesis is true.

𝑃 =1−𝛽

• Power of a statistical test can be interpreted as the

probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis.
• Power is a very descriptive and concise measure of the
sensitivity of a statistical test
• Sensitivity – ability of the test to detect differences
General Procedure of Hypothesis Testing
• 1. From the problem context, identify the parameter of
interest.
• 2. State the null hypothesis, Ho.
• 3. Specify an appropriate alternative hypothesis, Ha.
• 4. Choose a significance level .
• 5. Determine an appropriate test statistic.
• 6. State the rejection region for the statistic.
• 7. Compute any necessary sample quantities, substitute
these into the equation for the test statistic, and compute
that value.
• 8. Decide whether or not Ho should be rejected and report
that in the problem context.
Examples
• In each of the following situations, state whether it is a
correctly stated hypothesis testing problem and why.
• A. Ho:  = 25, Ha:   25
• B. Ho:  > 10, Ha:  = 10
• C. Ho: sample mean = 50, Ha: sample mean  50
• D. Ho: p = 0.1, Ha: p = 0.5
• E. Ho: s = 30, Ha: s > 30
Examples
• A textile fiber manufacturer is investigating a new drapery
yarn, which the company claims has a mean thread
elongation of 12 kilograms with a standard deviation of
0.5 kilograms. The company wishes to test the hypothesis
against Ho:  = 12 against Ha:  < 12, using a random
sample of four specimens.

• A. What is the type I error probability if the critical region is

defined as sample mean < 11.5 kilograms?
• B. Find  for the case where the true mean elongation is
11.25 kilograms.
• C. Repeat A and B using a sample size of 16
Examples
• The heat evolved in calories per gram of a cement
mixture is approximately normally distributed. The mean is
thought to be 100 and the standard deviation is 2. We
wish to test Ho:  = 100 versus H1:   100 with a sample
of n = 9 specimens.
• A. If the acceptance region is defined as 98.5 < sample
mean < 101.5, find the type I error probability .
• B. Find  for the case where the true mean heat evolved
is 103.
• C. Find  for the case where the true mean heat evolved
is 105. This value of  is smaller than the one found in
part (b) above. Why?
Seatwork
• 1. A consumer products company is formulating a new
shampoo and is interested in foam height (in millimeters).
Foam height is approximately normally distributed and
has a standard deviation of 20 millimeters. The company
wishes to test Ho:  = 175 millimeters versus H1:  > 175
millimeters, using the results of n = 10 samples.
• A. Find the type I error probability if the critical region is
sample mean > 185.
• B. What is the probability of type II error if the true mean
foam height is 195 millimeters?
• C. Repeat A and B assuming that the sample size is n =
16 and the boundary of the critical region is the same.