Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
for
Projects
Scott Morrison
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Project Risk Management
Session Logistics
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Project Risk Management
Introductions
Team exercise
Team exercise readout
Closing items
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Project Risk Management
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Project Risk Management
Risk Management Overview
What is risk?
Risk: An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive
or negative effect on a project’s objectives
VENTURE OUTCOME
(Project) (Products)
FAVORABLE
UNKNOWNS (Opportunity)
(Uncertainty)
UNFAVORABLE
(Risks)
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Project Risk Management
Risk Management Overview
Project Lifecycle
Risk vs. Amount at Stake
I
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT IMPLEMENT CLOSE
N
PHASE PHASE PHASE PHASE
C
R $
OPPORTUNITY AND RISK
E
A V
S A
PERIOD WHEN
I HIGHEST RISKS L
N ARE INCURRED U
G E
PERIOD OF
R HIGHEST
I RISK IMPACT
AMOUNT AT STAKE
S
K
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Project Risk Management
Risk Management Overview
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Project Risk Management
Risk Management Overview
PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
INTEGRATION
INFORMATION /
SCOPE
COMMUNICATIONS
Life Cycle and
Expectations Environment Variables
Ideas, Directives, Data
Feasibility
Exchange Accuracy
QUALITY
Requirements PROJECT Availability HUMAN
Standards RISK Productivity
RESOURCE
CONTRACT /
TIME
COST PROCUREMENT
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Project Risk Management
Risk Management Overview
– You can learn from your risk activities and help others with
their risk
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Project Risk Management
Risk Management Overview
Risks vs Issues
– Many projects use risk and issue logs. Sometimes the management of
issues and risks can become confusing.
– The PMBOK definition of an Issue:
A point or matter in question or in dispute, or a point or matter that
is not settled and is under discussion or over which there are
opposing views or disagreements.
– If you have the freedom to define these items and their logs and the
subsequent management of risks and issues, then great. Handle risks and
issues as you desire. My suggestion is to follow as closely as possible the
PMBOK guidelines.
– If you are dictated by the company, organization, or management team to
handle risks and issues in a particular manner, then follow these
guidelines. Document in your Project Management Plan, Risk
Management Plan, and or Issue Management Plan how you will handle
12 risks and issues.
Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
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Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
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Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
project
Types of risk
– Technical
– External
– Organizational
– Project Management
Note: These are example types of risk and this list can be modified to
meet the needs of your project
PROJECT
RBS
PROJECT
TECHNICAL EXTERNAL ORGANIZATIONAL
MANAGEMENT
SUBCONTRACTORS PROJECT
REQUIREMENTS ESTIMATING
& SUPPLIERS DEPENDENCIES
COMPLEXITY &
MARKET FUNDING CONTROLLING
INTERFACES
PERFORMANCES
& RELIABILITY CUSTOMER PRIORITIZATION COMMUNICATIONS
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Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
Event driven
– A risk event happens and becomes part of the risk register
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Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
Brainstorming
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Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
Nominal Group
– Then within each area have each person write at least 3-5 risk
events
Delphi technique
– Identify a facilitator
– The facilitator then identifies qualified experts to participate
– The facilitator poses questions to the experts individually
– The facilitator then analyzes the results to identify common
themes
– The results are then shared with the experts for validation
– The list is then refined and again shared with the panel
– The facilitator the creates a single results document
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Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
Mind mapping
– Begin with a category of risk in the center represented by a circle
– For each major risk identify smaller risks that are part of that risk
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Bonus Slide
Scott’s 3 Rules of Project Management
• Ethical behavior and honesty are the most important things you
can ever do
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Project Risk Management
Risk Quantification
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Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
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Project Risk Management
Risk Quantification
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Project Risk Management
Risk Quantification
Probability
– Can be done in a basic approach by developing a simple estimate of the probability that an
event will be late in delivery
Ed says it is 50% likely this task will be late
Probability of Event 1 x Probability of Event 2 = Probability
– Can be done in a more complex manner by using weighted averages
Joe says 35% chance of being late
Mary says 40% chance of being late
Ed says 50% chance of being late
Joe gets twice as much credit because he knows more about the situation
The probability is: ((2 x 35) + (40) + (50)) / 4 = 40%
– Quantifying risk probability can become quite complex, there are many resources to assist
you with more detailed approaches (books, internet research, multi-day training,
consultants).
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Project Risk Management
Risk Quantification
Assessing Impact
– Schedule Tools:
Network analysis (relationships, durations, critical path(s),
near critical paths, hard constraints)
Resources (availability, competency, productivity)
Estimates (accuracy, source, method)
– Cost tools:
WBS
Requirement definition
Estimating methodologies
Expected monetary value
Decision trees
33 Financial analysis
Project Risk Management
Risk Quantification
Risk Response
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Project Risk Management
Risk Response
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Project Risk Management
Risk Control
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Project Risk Management
Risk Control
Example Log
Risk ID Sequential number assigned
Functional Area Identify the functional business areas potentially impacted by the risk
Risk Category Cost; External; Schedule; Technical; Resources; Operational
Risk Description Description of the risk and the impact of it
Date Identified Date the risk was identified
Raised By Who identified the risk
Date Assigned Date the risk was assigned
Assigned To Who the risk was assigned to
Probability 1, 2, 3, 4
Potential Impact 1, 2, 3, 4
Risk Factor (P*I) Probability * Impact
Positive or Negative Impact Will the potential impact of the risk have a Positive, Negative, Both or Unknown impact if realized?
Response Category Acceptance; Mitigation; Transfer; Avoidance
Status/Comments Status of risk and update/comments about it
Trigger Preliminary event that will indicate the risk is about to take place
Proposed/Actual Resolution Risk Response plan
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
Your task, should you choose to accept it, and you must,
is to develop a risk plan for your project
The group will break into 3-5 person teams to work on
their project
There are 2 projects, a construction project and a new
product development effort
You will develop your risk plan, then the similar project
teams will get together (all the construction teams in one
group and all the product development teams in another)
and develop a summary of what happened, then each
large project group will present to the whole class their
experiences
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
Construction Project
– This project will develop a combined residential and commercial
community in southern Louisiana, the community will be called
“Southern Comfort”
– Planned activities are:
300 Residential Condos (Targeted sales price $100K to $150K each)
100 Residential Homes (Targeted sales price $350K to $500K each)
A small office complex (50,000 sq. ft.)
2 convenience stores, each with a gas station
4 recreational areas:
– 2 open space areas: Also used for youth soccer and football
– 1 area with tennis courts and basketball courts
– 1 area with 6-8 baseball/softball fields
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
47,240,000
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
The property is located next to a protected wildlife area and had wonderful
The zoning for the commercial lots has not yet been completed
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
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Project Risk Management
Small Team Exercise
Conclusions
– What worked well?
– What did not work so well?
– What happened during the process that you found
interesting?
– How well were you able to manage your risk?
– What would you do differently?
– Is there anything you would now do differently on
your project based on this experience?
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Project Risk Management
Conclusion
Conclusion
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Project Risk Management
Conclusion
– Structure
– Analysis
– Creativity
– Constant attention
– Flexibility
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Project Risk Management
Conclusion (cont.)
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Project Risk Management
Conclusion (cont.)
References
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Project Risk Management
References
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