Climate Change

and National
Security
Shakeel Ahmad Ramay
Caution to Understand
 Securityimplications of climate change
need to be examined in the context of
pre-existing social, economic and
environmental threats, or stresses,
which are key factors in the security of
individuals, communities and States
(General Assembly Report 2009)
Caution to Understand
 Climate change: A multiplier
 Non-Climate factors which contribute to
security threat: poverty, governance, presence
of mechanisms for conflict management,
regional diplomacy
 We need to shift focus from narrow to a
broader security perspective
How we can define?
Human Security -economic
security, food security, health
security, environmental
security, personal security,
community security, and
political security
 Climate Change as Threat
• Some scholars find climate change as potential
threat to global peace and security
(Russell/Morris 2006, Vogel 2007, Brauch 2002,
Stott/Stone 2004).
• In his speech at the 2007 Noble prize ceremony R
K Pachuari said, “Climate change has raised the
threat of dramatic population migration, conflict, and
war over water and other resources as well as a
realignment of power among nations. Some also
highlight the possibility of rising tensions between rich
and poor nations, health problems caused particularly
by water shortages, and crop failures as well as
concerns over nuclear proliferation."
 Elements of Threat

• Resources scarcity e.g. water, food,

energy,
• Lack of opportunities e.g. economic, basic
needs etc
• Disasters e.g. floods, droughts, cyclones
• Health and climate change
• Migration driven by climate change-due
to lack of livelihood opportunities
Climate Impacts on Security:
Human and Military
Human Security: Social, economic,
natural resources, environment
Military: direct threat to military
infrastructure, preparedness, and
operations
Altering the international boarder
 Research Evidence

• Major contribution comes from National

Intelligence Agencies e. g. CIA, MI6
• Schwartz and Randall 2003, for Pentagon -
environment related conflicts would be
more violent and require serious attention
from policy makers
Research Evidence
 The 2010 US Defense Review, defined climate
change as pertinent threat to national security
and stressed that government should redefine
its military preparation and operational
security and military strategy
 Solana Report, EU, recognized the security
dimension of climate change and possible
serious threats to national and European
security
 Research Evidence

• UNDP Administrative Kemal, at the launch of

2007 Development Report said, climate change is
a threat to humanity, especially for those people
living in poor regions
• Barnett argues, environmental security shares
two basic characteristics with the threat of global
nuclear warfare: ‘both are global in reach and
the effects of both could be highly devastating
Research Evidence
 UNEP, 2004 categorically defined environmental
degradation as security problem which contribute
to conflicts and violence.
 Work was further strengthened by UNEP by
conducting two studies
1) 2007 Sudan: post-conflict environmental
assessment and
2) 2009 From Conflict to Peacebuilding: The Role of
Natural Resources and the Environment to look into
detail of relationship between environment, climate
change and security
Research Evidence
 Adger and Barnnet, 2007 said that indicators of
human are vulnerable to climatic factor and extent
would be determined by role of natural resources
and environmental services in livelihoods,
governance both political and economic
 First causality due to climate change is weakening
of capacity of individuals, communities and states
which in turn enhance the probability of conflicts
(Wlezer, 2008
Security Council Debate
 In 2007, UK presented the case of climate
change as security threat
 Security Council Debated issue: As it is
responsible for maintaining peace and control
conflicts across world
 Security Council Asked Secretary General to
Submit assessment report in General
Assembly
General assembly
 In 2009 Secretary General submitted report in
General Assembly to discuss it further
 Report following channels of threat;
1. Vulnerability
2. Development
3. Coping and Security
4. Statelessness
5. International Conflicts
Case of Pakistan
Do You think Climate Change
will Impact Pakistan?
3.3 6.7

Yes

No

DON'T KNOW

86.7
 Which is most affected sector
due to climate change, please
33.3
35 rank?
30
30
25 21.7
20
15
10 6.7 5
5
0
 Which would be the most
prevalent impact of climate in
60 Pakistan?
50
40
30
53.3
20
10 19.2
8.3 11.7
0 5.8
Flood Droughts Reducation Water DON'T
in Resources KNOW
agriculture
and livestock
productivity
Do you think climate change has
impacted livelihoods of people of
Pakistan?
3.3
6.7

Yes

No

DON'T KNOW

86.7
30 If Yes please Rank
25
20
15
25 24.2
10 20
5 11.7 9.2
0
Is there any conflict on resources
in Pakistan due to climate
change?
12.5
8.3
Yes
No
DON'T KNOW

78.3
30 If yes please rank
25

20

15
24.2
10 20
17.5
14.2
5
4.2
0
Negligible Moderate High Very High Exceptional
Do you think climate change will
pose threat to national security?
4.2 10

Yes
No
DON'T KNOW

82.5
 If yes please rank
40
35
30
25
20
15 34.2
26.7
10
5 13.3
5.8 4.2
0
Example from Pakistan
 Continuous drought in Balochistan and Sindh
 Floods of 2010
 Flood 2011
 Flood 2012
 Flood 2015
 Drought 2014 etc
 GLOF
How to Deal
 Early prevention-Better- than later
interventions
 Need of political and military actions and
mobilization of financial resources
 First foremost thing would be “Further
RESAERCH”
 Development of Adaptation programs with
focus of human security
Recommendations
Climate Change
 National Vulnerability Index’ for a better
planning in future.
 Pakistan should also develop central
depository of data.
 Pakistan should start sector specific research
Climate Change
 Climate change must be integral part of any policy
of the country,
 Implementation of SDGs must be given priority
 Government should invest on adaptation as it can
advert big losses in future. US Geological Survey
and World Bank marked that US could save 280
Billion US dollars by investing 40 billion US
dollars during 1960-1990 (DFID, 2005).
Human Security and
Development
 We need to shift our focus from development
to Climate Change Compatible Development
model.
 There is a need to invest on human capital in
Pakistan
 Human security indicator
 Livelihood should be the priority area
 Sustainable Development Goals
National Security
 As a first step, Pakistan should map resource
scarce and climate vulnerable areas.
 Second, Pakistan should develop a conceptual
framework to identify and monitor potential
conflicts related to climate change and resources.
 Climate-driven migration.
 Vulnerability mapping of military infrastructure
 Military agencies must include climate related
factors in defence related preparations and
operational planning.
National Security
 National steering committee
 Government should also redefine
policies relating to coastal settlements
 Comprehensive study or programme
should be conducted to understand the
dynamics of the subject
Actions
 Committee of experts for developing policy
guidelines
 Reshaping adaptation plan of Pakistan: Tailor
it according to human security needs and
demands
 NDU and UNDP must identify research think
tank to lead the research on the subject
Actions
 SecurityAgencies must be actively involved-
Like CIA and Pentagon, MI-6 etc
 Indus water commission also prepare
accordingly
 Must be included in national security policy
Priority List
 Vulnerability Index
 Policy input for climate change compatible
development
 Policy input for the implementation of SDGs
 Formulation of steering committee
 Inclusion of human security dimension in national
planning and implementation
 An early commissioning of a comprehensive
study on “Climate Change and National
Security”.