COURSE ON LNG

BUSINESS
Session-2
World Gas Scenario
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019
 Gas share consistently
increasing

Gas share increasing

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019

World Natural Gas Reserves-2017
Sr. %
Country TCM
No. Share
1 Russian Federation 18.1 9.3
2 Iran 17.2 8.9
3 Qatar 12.9 6.7
4 Turkmenistan 10.1 5.2
5 US 4.5 2.3
6 Saudi Arabia 4.2 2.1
7 Venezuela 3.3 1.7
8 United Arab Emirates 3.1 1.6
9 China 2.8 1.5
10 Nigeria 2.7 1.4
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019
 Trend in share of world gas reserves in top ten countries
20.0

18.0

16.0
% of global reserves

14.0

12.0

10.0 Major
increase
8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

2010 2015 2017

World Natural Gas Production-2017
Sr. %
Country BCM
No. Share
1 US 631.6 20.0
2 Russian Federation 546.5 17.3
3 Iran 192.5 6.1
4 Canada 151.6 4.8
5 Qatar 151.1 4.8
6 China 128.3 4.1
7 Norway 106.0 3.3
8 Australia 97.6 3.1
9 Saudi Arabia 95.8 3.0
10 Algeria 78.5 2.5
 Trend in gas production for top 10 countries,2017
(Generally increasing trend)
700.0

600.0
Gas prodction in BCM

500.0

2010

400.0

2015

300.0
2017
Major
200.0 increase

100.0

0.0
World Natural Gas Consumption-2017
Sr. %
Country BCM
No. Share
1 US 635.8 20.1
2 Russian Federation 365.2 11.6
3 China 206.7 6.6
4 Iran 184.4 5.8
5 Japan 100.7 3.2
6 Canada 99.5 3.2
7 Saudi Arabia 95.8 3.0
8 Germany 77.5 2.5
9 Mexico 75.3 2.4
10 United Kingdom 67.7 2.1
 Trend in gas consumption in top 10 countries
(Generally increasing trend)
700

600

500
Gas consumption in BCM

400

2010
300 Major 2015
increase 2017

200

Decrease
100

0
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019
 Gas trade balance for top 25 countries in 2017

Indonesia
Malaysia
Algeria
Australia
Norway
France
Qatar
Argentina
South Korea
Thailand
Turkey
India
Egypt
Italy
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
Mexico
Germany
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Japan
Iran
China
Russian Federation
US

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

R/P (years) Trade balance as % of cons.

 REGIONAL IMBALANCE ANALYSIS, 2017
100.0

90.0

80.0

70.0
% Of world total

60.0 Asia Pacific

Africa
Middle East
50.0
CIS countries
Europe
40.0 South &Central America
N.America

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
Reserves Production Consumption

193.5 3.7 3.7

TCM TCM TCM
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019
Unconventional gas- Already in market

• Very rapid technological development in

SHALE last decade

• US is a major producer and has already
created big impact in the global market

GAS • Almost 50% of current gas production in

USA is from Shale gas

• Came in market much before Shale gas

• US, Australia, South Africa, China are
some major players

CBM • Started commercial production in India

too
Summary of global activities in
Unconventional gas
SHALE GAS-RESOURCE ESTIMATES
 SHALE GAS PRODUCTION
TREND IN USA
%SHARE OF TYPES OF GAS IN US GAS PRODUCTION
60

50
% SHARE IN TOTAL GAS PRODUCTION

40

30

20

10

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
YEAR

NANG ANG SHALE CBM

CBM RESOURCE ESTIMATES
 Combined unconventional gas vis-à-vis
conventional gas resources
Unconventional resources are almost equivalent to conventional resources
 Unconventional gas- Strategic implications
Is it a game changer in gas markets?
• Very large reserves implies supply security for higher share of
gas in world energy mix
Resource • Geographical spread very different-implications on geopolitics
availability related to energy supply

• Unconventional gas can change current trade balance for gas in

many countries
Trade balance • Possibilities of more wide spread and diverse gas supply
for gas portfolios

• LNG markets are undergoing dramatic structural change due to

unconventional gas
• Countries like USA which were expected to be major importers of
LNG business LNG are now exporting LNG
Source: IEA 2012 Study
Source: IEA 2012 STUDY
Source: IEA 2012 Study
Projections for future world primary Energy
Demand & Energy Mix