Tariffs Case Study

Unintended Consequences…
September, 2019

Jim Sutter | USSEC CEO

Differentiate, build a preference and
ensure market access for U.S. Soy
2019 Members
 1956
U.S. Soy opens first overseas office in Tokyo, with FAS assistance
 1969
U.S. Soy opens European Union office in Hamburg
 1979
U.S. Soy opens Southeast Asia office in Singapore
 1982
U.S. soybean farmers lay foundation for today’s relationship with China
 1984
U.S. Soy opens first South American office in Venezuela
 1995
After 13 years of USSEC market development efforts, China starts to
import U.S. soy.
 1997
U.S. Soy launches presence in Asia Subcontinent
Soybean Imports by China and Rest of World
1995/96 – 2017/18 and USDA Forecasts for 2018/19 and 2019/20

100
90
80
70
60
MMT

50
40
30
20
10
0
95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20

China Rest of World

Impact of U.S./China
Trade War
Top 5 Export Markets for U.S. Ag Exports

30

25 China
Canada
Billion Dollars

20

15 Japan Mexico

10

5 EU

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(f)
Fiscal Year
Source: USDA Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
Top U.S. Export Markets for Soybeans
Country 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19*
China 36,119,304 28,202,572 8,735,200
Mexico 3,887,362 4,205,285 4,100,900
Netherlands 1,970,414 2,932,494 2,037,200
Indonesia 2,497,943 2,554,238 2,009,900
Egypt 939,218 2,331,332 2,418,900
Japan 1,474,361 2,020,345 2,163,700
Taiwan 1,474,361 2,020,345 1,364,600
Pakistan 623,956 1,725,360 950,800
Thailand 1,039,949 1,508,070 1,340,000
Vietnam 547,484 1,206,896 569,900
Spain 660,862 999,530 1,761,200

* As of July 4, 2019
What It Takes
What It Takes Initiative
Short-term strategy
• Comprehensive effort to mitigate lost U.S. Soy Market Share in
China and diversify/make-up volume.
– Identify Target Markets
• Outreach to U.S. exporters/U.S. export organizations to generate support and buy-in
• Efforts in targeted destinations to promote U.S. and highlight competitive U.S. prices
at unusual time of year
– Create awareness with “new” customers and grow their demand
– Highlight opportunity to source soybean meal from the U.S.
– Follow-up visits to key importers planned by U.S. Soy representatives to
answer questions and build preference for U.S. Soy
New and Renewed Initiatives
• Long-Term – Demand Growth Oriented: New Emerging Markets
– ATP Funded – Soy Excellence Centers:
• Egypt, Nigeria, Thailand and America’s
– Food Chain Enablement
• Ensure food chain/cold chain workable

• Short-term - Market Share Growth: Existing Markets

– Promote U.S. Soy Advantage
– Promote U.S. Soybean Meal
– Promote U.S. Soy Sustainability Advantages
• Market Access – Real Issues Limiting Demand: Worldwide
– Weed Seed Issues & GMO Approvals
• Continued China Relationship Management: China
 2019
U.S. Soy comes to Nigeria!
Global Soybean Consumption
2000/01 – 2019/20 and Trend to 2029/30
If Trend Continues World Will Need 80 to 100 MMT of Additional Soybeans in a Decade

500
450
400
350
300
MMT

250
200
150
100
50
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2027 2029
 Thank you!
Email: JSutter@ussec.org | LinkedIn: LinkedIn.com/in/jim-sutter/ | Twitter: @1jsutter

While the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) does not guarantee the forecasts or statements of USSEC Staff or Contractors, we have taken care
in selecting them to represent our organization. We believe they are knowledgeable and their presentations and opinions will provide listeners with
detailed information and valuable insights into the U.S. Soy and U.S. Ag Industry. We welcome further questions and always encourage listeners to
seek a wide array of opinions before making any financial decisions based on the information presented. Accordingly, USSEC will not accept any
liability stemming from the information contained in this presentation.