Chapter 17: Global Change: Alternative Climates, Alternative Choices Ozone and The Stratosphere Cfcs and Ozone Depletion

Chapter 17: Global Change
1. Alternative Climates, Alternative

Choices
2. Ozone and the Stratosphere
3. CFCs and Ozone Depletion

4. Greenhouse Gases and Global
Change
5. Modeling Global Climate Change
6. A Warmer World
7. What Can Be Done?
Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
Alternative Climates, Alternative Choices
Ozone hole over Antarctica
(below) and global
temperature record (right).
Are these two things related?
It is a common misconception that

ozone depletion causes global
warming. However, both are global-
scale issues related to atmospheric
composition – ozone in the
stratosphere, and CO2 and some
other greenhouse gases in the
troposphere.
The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change
Alternative Climates, Alternative Choices
The big question – how likely is
it that global changes to
climate will actually happen?
Will major global change effect
our kids? Our grandkids? Our
great-grandkids?
Exactly how much will global
temperatures rise? Which
areas will be most affected?
Which areas least affected?
What is the cause? Who is
responsible? Can we sue
somebody?

Global Change Self-Reflection Survey
Answer the following questions as a means of uncovering
what you already know about global change.
1. Respond to the following questions taken from recent polls:
i. Which of the following statements comes closest to your

view of global warming?
a. Global warming is a proven fact and is mostly caused by
emissions from cars and industrial facilities such as power plants.
b. Global warming is a proven fact and is mostly caused by natural
changes that have nothing to do with emissions from cars and industrial
facilities.
c. Global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven.

d. Unsure Results from other respondents:
a. 54%; b. 22%; c. 23%; d. 1%
ii. Thinking about the issue of global warming, sometimes

called the “greenhouse effect,” how well do you feel you
understand this issue? Would you say …
a. Very well
b. Fairly well Results from other respondents:
c. Not very well a. 21%; b. 59%; c. 18%; d. 2%
d. Not at all

iii. Which of the following statements reflects your view of
when the effects of global warming will begin to happen?
a. They have already begun to happen.
b. They will start happening within a few years.
c. They will start happening within your lifetime.
d. They will not happen within your lifetime, but they will
affect the
future.
e. They will never happen.
Results from other respondents:
a. 61%; b. 4%; c. 10%; d. 13%; e. 11%
Make a list of at least three advantages

and three disadvantages of an increase in
temperatures in the region where you live.
Then do the same for Earth as a whole.

From your existing knowledge about

global warming, how do your personal
actions contribute to or help reduce the
potential for global warming?

Ozone and the Stratosphere
The ozone layer is Earth’s own sun block system that stops
97-99 % of the harmful incoming ultraviolet rays from reaching
the planet’s surface.
3 types of ultraviolet radiation – UVA, UVB, and UVC
UVC – shortest wavelength, most dangerous, filtered out by

atmosphere
UVA and UVB – cause skin cancer and wrinkles after repeated
long-term exposure
- UV rays can penetrate your clothes
- SPF 15 lotion blocks out ~92% of the UV that reaches
Earth’s surface
Global Change Checkpoint 17.1
Which of the following statements is the best

analogy?
a)An umbrella is to rain as the stratosphere is to
solar radiation.
b)An umbrella is to rain as the stratosphere is to
ultraviolet radiation.
c) An umbrella is to rain as the stratospheric ozone is
to solar radiation.
d)An umbrella is to rain as the stratospheric ozone is
to ultraviolet radiation.
Formation of ozone is cyclical:
1. UV radiation breaks an O2
molecule into two separate O atoms.
2. An individual O atom combines
with a whole O2 molecule to form an
ozone molecule.
3. UVB strikes an ozone molecule
and breaks it back down into an O2
molecule and an O atom.
This O atom is then free to combine
with another O2 and make more
ozone.
No long-term change in
the concentration of ozone
occurs.
The three steps of natural ozone production and destruction

in the stratosphere:
(i) O2 + UV  O + O (+ heat)
(ii) O2 + O  O3
(iii) O3 + UV  O2 + O (+ heat)
UV radiation is converted from light to heat by the

destruction of oxygen molecules and ozone molecules.
Temperature rises with increasing altitude in the
stratosphere.

Which of the following concept maps best represents the

sequence of transformations associated with the formation and
destruction of ozone in the stratosphere? Explain the
reasoning behind your choice.

Global variations in ozone concentrations, Jan. 2001.
Complex stratospheric
circulation patterns
remove ozone from
the tropics and
deposit it at higher
latitudes.
Dobson Units: One DU = 0.01 mm (0.0004 inches)

Concentrations are …
- nearly constant over the tropics.
- more concentrated with larger seasonal variations at higher latitudes
- greatest in Northern Hemisphere during its spring
- greatest in Southern Hemisphere during Northern Hemisphere fall
- linked to atmospheric circulation patterns, temperature, and solar
radiation reaching the Earth.
The following graph represents the variation in ozone concentrations over
four cities: Darwin, Australia, 12°S; Melbourne, Australia, 37°S; San
Francisco, USA, 37°N, London, UK, 55°N. Explain which city goes with
each of the four plots, then sketch an estimated plot for the city where you
live.

CFCs and Ozone Depletion
What are CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons)?
Volatile organic compounds used as aerosol propellants and refrigerants
Inert (non-reactive) gases that remain in the atmosphere for up to 200
years
Can be broken down by photolysis (UV radiation) which frees chlorine
atoms from the CFCs
Chlorine atoms react with ozone destroying an ozone molecule and
creating chlorine monoxide and oxygen:
Cl + O3  ClO + O2
Chlorine monoxide reacts with oxygen atoms freeing up another chlorine
atom available for breaking down ozone
80% of chlorine in the stratosphere comes from CFCs
In 1978, per the Montreal Protocol, the US banned aerosol sprays
containing CFCs and phased out their production
Ozone is naturally reduced
above Antarctica every
spring, but reductions beyond
the expected natural variation
were noticed in 1985.
Ozone hole – not an actual
hole, just an area of reduced
ozone.
Ozone levels began to drop in
the 1970’s.
During October (Southern
Hemisphere spring) ozone
concentrations over
Antarctica drop to ~100 DU.

Suppose a volcanic eruption included

large volumes of chlorine. What would
likely happen to global stratospheric
ozone levels and why?

Why is ozone depletion concentrated over Antarctica?
• Unique weather patterns over Antarctica – polar vortex
• Temperatures below -112°F June through August
• Leads to formation of polar stratospheric clouds (water + nitric acid)
• Ice particles in these clouds provide surfaces on which chemical
reactions can occur, including the release of chlorine by chlorine bearing
compounds
• In spring (September through November) temperature rises, processes
that produce ozone outpace destruction and ozone begins to increase
• No polar stratospheric clouds elsewhere means less ozone loss
elsewhere
Ozone formation and destruction are temperature dependent phenomena

Students in a college earth science class are asked to concisely
describe the relationship between CFCs and ozone destruction on
an exam. Analyze the following four students’ responses and rank
them from best to worst. Justify your answer choices.
a) CFCs are manufactured gases that destroy the ozone and produce
oxygen.
b) Chlorine forms from the disintegration of manufactured gases. The
chlorine reacts with ozone molecules to form two gases that cannot
block incoming UV radiation.
c) Oxygen molecules are broken down by UV radiation to free oxygen
atoms that combine with chlorine monoxide to form new oxygen
molecules and free chlorine. Chlorine helps break down CFCs with
UV radiation.
d) UV radiation breaks apart complex manufactured CFCs into its
constituent atoms, including chlorine. Chlorine destroys ozone
molecules at it cycles through a pair of reactions that produce free
oxygen.
Finally, write your own answer to the question.
Chlorine concentrations in
Earth’s atmosphere
What do these two

graphs tell you? What
trends do you notice?
What does this imply
for our ozone layer’s
future?
Changes in CFC
concentrations in
the atmosphere.

Greenhouse Gases and Global Change
Infrared radiation emitted from Earth’s surface is absorbed by water
vapor, CO2, and other trace gases in the troposphere, creating a
situation known as the greenhouse effect.
We like it because it keeps the average surface temperature of Earth
~59°F as opposed to 0°F.
Can have too much of a good thing – Venus has runaway
greenhouse effect with average surface temperature of 885°F.
Facts:
The 20th century was the warmest in the last millennium
1990s were the warmest decade
2010 was the warmest year in the last 1,000 years; the top 10
warmest years in the last 1,000 years have occurred since 1998!
There may be a debate about the severity of global warming, but one
trend is undeniable – The concentration of greenhouse gases in the
Earth’s atmosphere has steadily and measurably increased over the
past two centuries. The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change
Nine of the ten hottest summers ever recorded occurred in the

past decade or so.
Greenhouse Gases and
Global Change
Can you explain at least two

things that these graphs are
telling us? What strikes you?

Key points:
1. Greenhouse gases help warm the planet.
2. Global concentrations of greenhouse gases have
increased.
3. Average global temperatures have increased by
0.7°C (1.3°F) over the last 100 years.
4. Population growth will contribute to increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the future.

What is the difference between the

greenhouse effect and global warming?

Global Carbon Cycle

Carbon is in constant flux between all of Earth’s components
Atmosphere – both a sink and a source of carbon

compounds and carbon based gases
Carbon enters atmosphere via:
respiration (animals exhaling CO2)
the burning of forests
the decay of dead organisms
burning of fossil fuels
natural volcanic activity
release of dissolved gases from the ocean

Atmosphere – both a sink and a source of carbon
compounds and carbon based gases
Carbon leaves atmosphere via:
photosynthesis (used by plants)
rock formation (limestone)
absorption by the ocean
other biological processes
Overall, more carbon enters than exits the

atmosphere by about 3.4 billion tons per
year!
Variations in carbon dioxide concentrations.
What two trends do you notice? How do you explain each

one?
Where on Earth
would you
expect to see
the most
pronounced
seasonal CO2
variations?
Why?
Saw tooth pattern = annual (seasonal) fluctuations in CO2 due to plant

activity
Overall increasing trend = Build up of CO2 in atmosphere mainly due to
human activities
Hydrosphere – Oceans act as a carbon sink by absorbing more
gas than they release
Oceans retain an additional 2 billion tons of carbon per year
The amount of CO2 oceans can absorb increases with
decreasing temperature and increasing wind speed
Wave action helps by creating bubbles that transfer gas from
air to water
CO2 falls in streams as acid rain and enters the oceans via
runoff
Carbon is carried to deep ocean in cold sinking currents and
remain for more than 1,000 years (long term reservoir)
CO2 is released back to atmosphere as warm water rises,
like bubbles out of a warm can of soda
Biosphere – Interacts with all other parts of the earth system
through the carbon cycle
Plants extract CO2 from atmosphere by photosynthesis
Animals eat plants thereby consuming carbon
Carbon is returned to atmosphere when organisms die
Carbon can be held for millions of years if organic remains
are buried and converted to fossil fuel deposits (coal,
oil, natural gas)
Carbon is retained in some marine animals as part of their
shells, skeletons
Dead marine organisms sink, getting buried, locked in
sedimentary rocks, locking away their carbon

Geosphere – The largest sinks for carbon on the planet are

rocks and minerals of the solid earth
Most is present as an element of calcium carbonate
(limestone)
When limestone undergoes chemical weathering it releases
CO2 to the atmosphere
Chemical weathering is caused by acid rain, which takes CO2
out of the atmosphere
Some carbon is stored in fossil fuel deposits formed from
decayed organic material

Overall, CO2 in the atmosphere remained constant at 280 ppm on a
global scale for several centuries prior to the industrial revolution.
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 rapidly
increased in recent decades.
Most anthropogenic
emissions come from
consumption of fossil
fuels and
deforestation.
About half of what
we produce is taken
back into carbon
sinks in biosphere
and oceans – the
rest is left in
atmosphere.
Carbon is stored in carbon

reservoirs, or sinks, just as
water is stored in a reservoir
behind a dam. The carbon
is released from these
reservoirs and ultimately
ends up in another
reservoir. Complete the
following table to identify
how carbon is stored and
released from each
component of the Earth
system.
Use the concept map

provided here to
illustrate the natural
global carbon cycle by
showing how carbon is
transferred among the
components of the
earth system.

Principle U.S. greenhouse
gases by source type.
Water vapor accounts for
most of the natural
greenhouse effect, but human
produced water vapor is not a
factor in global warming so it
is not represented here.
Principle U.S. greenhouse gases

by sector.
While energy is the largest
sector, multiple stakeholders
share nearly equal
responsibility for emissions,
and they all use energy.

Distribution of US carbon emissions. How would you expect this

figure to change over the next 50 years?
GWP (global warming potential) of a gas depends on its
ability to hold heat AND how long it stays in the atmosphere.
CO2 has a longer lifetime (decades to hundreds of years) but
absorbs less heat.
Methane absorbs a lot of heat, but remains in the
atmosphere for much shorter time periods.
GWP of methane is 21 times greater than that of CO2.

Where are most greenhouse gases concentrated?
• Initially, they are concentrated where there is more human
activity. Four countries produce more than one-half of global
emissions: China, the US, India, and Russia.
• Atmospheric circulation patterns thoroughly mix the gases and
distribute them throughout the troposphere.
• Greenhouse gas concentrations are remarkably uniform
worldwide

Review the following three scenarios and discuss the implications for global
greenhouse gas emissions. Then complete the graph show here to show
how global carbon emissions would change over the next century for each
scenario. We are more interested in the trends than the absolute values for
each scenario.
Scenario A: Global
population peaks around 9
billion in 2050 and declines
thereafter. New
technologies are rapidly
introduced, and economic
disparities between regions
are substantially reduced.
Fossil fuels continue to
supply most of Earth's
energy. The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change
Global Change Checkpoint 17.12 continued
Complete the graph show here to show how global carbon emissions would
change over the next century for scenario b. We are more interested in the
trends than the absolute values for each scenario.
Scenario B: Global population

continues to increase
throughout the twenty first
century (11 billion by 2050).
Disparities in the economic
growth of regions persist, and
technological change occurs
slowly. The energy supply
gradually changes from fossil
fuels toward alternative energy
sources. The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change
Global Change Checkpoint 17.12 continued
Complete the graph show here to show how global carbon emissions would
change over the next century for scenario c. We are more interested in the
trends than the absolute values for each scenario.
Scenario C: Global population

peaks around 9 billion in 2050
and declines thereafter.
Economies rapidly become
service-and-information
oriented, income disparities
decrease, and energy
technologies that do not rely on
fossil fuels are introduced.

Modeling Global Climate Change
Forcings and Feedbacks:

Example – Audio feedback
- Speaker hooked up to microphone to amplify sound
- Microphone picks up sound coming from speaker,
further amplifying it
The sound is a forcing mechanism.
The result is a high-pitched squeal, or feedback.
Forcings and feedbacks are important parts of

climate change.

Sunlight is scattered, absorbed, and/or reflected by Earth
More reflected = cooling More absorbed = warming
Earth's radiation
balance
~1/3 is reflected
The rest is absorbed
by atmosphere and
land and water of
Earth's surface
Infrared is absorbed
and re-emitted
toward Earth's
surface by
greenhouse gases
Climate forcing : Any phenomenon that causes a change
in the global solar radiation balance.
-positive forcings lead to global warming,
-negative forcings lead to global cooling.
Examples:
Positive forcings: - More solar energy reaches Earth's surface
- More energy is absorbed by the addition
of greenhouse gases.
Negative forcings: - Volcanic ash reflects light back into space
- Increased ice cover causes more
reflection off Earth's surface.
Measured as RF (radiative forcing in W/m2)

Which of the
above has the
strongest affect
on warming the
climate? Why is
this significant?
Why do some
agents serve as
both positive and
negative forcings?

Aerosols are tiny reflective particles – makes them a
negative forcing mechanism.
Some black particles absorb solar radiation and can cause
warming.
Warming or cooling caused by forcings leads to

other climatic feedbacks that can exaggerate or
reduce temperature changes.
Examples –
Warmer climate = more evaporation = increased greenhouse effect
= more warming (POSITIVE FEEDBACK)
Warmer climate = more evaporation = more cloud cover = more
reflection of solar radiation = cooling (NEGATIVE FEEDBACK)
So, addition of water vapor may contribute both positive and
negative feedbacks to warming. The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change
Scientists hypothesize that ~40% of global

temperature changes are due to forcings, and
feedbacks explain the rest.
Predicting climate change is hard due to
multiple, and sometimes competing, forcings and
feedbacks that occur simultaneously.

Where would you expect to see the most

significant cooling effects due to aerosols?
Explain your answer choice.
a) Near the poles

b) Around the equator
c) Between 30° and 60°N latitudes
d) Between 30° and 60°S latitudes

Explain the Milankovitch cycles

described in Chapter 16 in terms of a
climate forcing.

Scientists use sophisticated computer models that use
millions of calculations to try to simulate climate factors over
the entire earth system. Modern models seek to represent all
key factors:
•Incoming solar radiation
•Outgoing radiation
•Wind speed and direction
•Cloud types
•Precipitation types and amounts
•Changes in dimensions ice sheets
•Vegetation types
•Atmospheric gas concentrations
•Temperature stratification of the ocean
•Continental topography
Models divide Earth's
surface into a grid, each
square represents the
base of an atmospheric
column divided into
levels.
Models calculate natural phenomena. They characterize the

conditions in each square on the grid and then set the model in
motion at certain time intervals to simulate climate evolution.
Modeling results
All tend to generate the same major trends that are
observed in actual climate data.
Multiple models produce similar results.
Results depend on …
Complexity of the model (e.g. grid size, # levels,
time step)

Explain why computer climate

models are really "earth system"
models.

A Warmer World
It is unlikely that we will be
able to substantially reduce
anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions in the near
future.
Models predict that
industrialization and
resource use associated with
rapid economic growth will
have a more significant
impact on global warming
that population growth.

A Warmer World
Modeled changes in global surface air temperatures.
Predicted temperature
changes are averages and
mask the fact that
temperatures could increase
more than 18°F in some
places and fall in other
places.
Example – Warming causes
melting of Greenland ice
contributes fresh water to
ocean, affecting Gulf Stream,
cooling Europe
Most models predict greater
temperature increases in
northern latitudes and
potential cooling in parts of
the Southern Hemisphere
Identify three actions a private citizen

could take to reduce the amount of
greenhouse gases produced on his or
her behalf.

A Warmer World
Think about this:

What would you do if temperatures here increased by an
average of 10°F?
Most recent research indicates that changes will be most
extreme in developing nations who may not have the
resources to deal with them.
Wealthy nations (who produce most of the greenhouse
gases) will be less affected, and more able to deal with the
changes.
We can crank our A/C – can everybody?

A Warmer World
Modeled changes to precipitation comparing 2090-2099 to 1980-1999
December-February July-August
Evaporation and precipitation will increase due to warming, but

extra rainfall will not be distributed evenly around the globe.
Higher for equatorial regions and for oceans vs. continents.
A Warmer World Consequences
Drought
Extinction
Famine
Flooding
Disease

Use the figures and the
Venn diagram provided
here to compare the
predicted climate
changes in North
America with those in
South America by 2100.

What Can Be Done?
Global warming is complex. Should we do anything?
People do not appear to be directly threatened during their lifetimes.
Some countries might benefit from the warming.
Earth was much hotter in the past (Mesozoic Era – Hothouse Earth).
In 1992 nations pledged to reduce emissions by 2000 – it didn't
happen.
1997 – Kyoto protocol – represents an agreement among developed
nations to reduce greenhouse emissions to 1990 levels by 2008 –
2012, and 6-8% lower in following years.
Kyoto protocol is supported by more than 120 countries
Countries are now more seriously considering options for

reducing global-warming emissions. Stay tuned …

What Can Be Done?
We can attempt to adapt

What Can Be Done?
We can take direct action …
Options to slow the build-up of

greenhouse gasses include (but
are not limited to:
•Conservation
•Replacing high carbon
fuels
•New transportation fuels
•Forest management
Possible carbon emissions

What Can Be Done?
Geologic sequestration and alternative fuels

What Can Be Done?
Some technological options that have been proposed:
- Alter Earth's energy balance by reflecting incoming solar
radiation using fleets of silver balloons or giant mirrors in the
atmosphere.
- Carbon sequestration, the trapping of carbon in natural or
artificial storage reservoirs.
- Adding tiny particles of iron to the oceans to spur growth of
plankton, who extract CO2 from the oceans.
- Problems?
- How do we get the mirrors up there? How do they stay up there?
- Assumes we can trap carbon produced by human activity.
- What if there is a catastrophic release of this trapped gas?
- Altering one part of the earth system to remedy human-induced
changes on another could prove tricky or not useful at all.
Explain how the comment “Earth can

take care of itself” in the context of
global warming relates to the concept
of “deep time” discussed in Chapter 8.

Global Change Concept Map
Complete the concept

map to evaluate your
understanding of the
interactions between
the earth system and
global change.
Label as many
interactions as you
can using information
from this chapter.

Chapter 17: Global Change: Alternative Climates, Alternative Choices Ozone and The Stratosphere Cfcs and Ozone Depletion

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Chapter 17: Global Change

1. Alternative Climates, Alternative

3. CFCs and Ozone Depletion

7. What Can Be Done?

It is a common misconception that

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

i. Which of the following statements comes closest to your

c. Global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven.

ii. Thinking about the issue of global warming, sometimes

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Make a list of at least three advantages

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

From your existing knowledge about

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

3 types of ultraviolet radiation – UVA, UVB, and UVC

UVC – shortest wavelength, most dangerous, filtered out by

Which of the following statements is the best

The three steps of natural ozone production and destruction

UV radiation is converted from light to heat by the

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Which of the following concept maps best represents the

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Dobson Units: One DU = 0.01 mm (0.0004 inches)

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Suppose a volcanic eruption included

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Ozone formation and destruction are temperature dependent phenomena

What do these two

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Nine of the ten hottest summers ever recorded occurred in the

Can you explain at least two

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

What is the difference between the

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Carbon is in constant flux between all of Earth’s components

Atmosphere – both a sink and a source of carbon

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Overall, more carbon enters than exits the

Variations in carbon dioxide concentrations.

What two trends do you notice? How do you explain each

Saw tooth pattern = annual (seasonal) fluctuations in CO2 due to plant

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Geosphere – The largest sinks for carbon on the planet are

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Carbon is stored in carbon

Use the concept map

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Principle U.S. greenhouse gases

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Distribution of US carbon emissions. How would you expect this

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Scenario B: Global population

Scenario C: Global population

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Forcings and Feedbacks:

Forcings and feedbacks are important parts of

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change

Measured as RF (radiative forcing in W/m2)

The Good Earth/Chapter 17: Global Change