Research Variables

and Hypotheses

1
Hypotheses

 OK, now that we know how to set

up a research project by posing
research questions and labeling
variables, it is time to move on to a
more formal way of structuring and
interpreting research.

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Hypotheses Definitions
 Hypotheses are predictions about
the relationship among two or more
variables or groups based on a
theory or previous research
(Pittenger, 2003)
 Hypotheses are assumptions or
theories that a researcher makes
and tests.
 Why are hypotheses important?
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Importance of Hypotheses
 Hypotheses:
 Direct our observations
 Identifiesthe variables examined and data
to be collected
 Describe a relationship among
variables
 Can state that as one variable increases,
the other will decrease; as one variables
increases, the other will increase, and so
on.
 Refer to populations
 Hypotheses help researchers infer that
results of a sample will translate to a
population
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4 Functions of Hypotheses
 Hypotheses can:

 Estimate Population
Characteristics
 Correlate Variables
 DisplayDifferences among Two or
more populations
 Show possible Cause and Effect
What research designs relate to each of
these 4 functions?

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Symbols used in Hypotheses

 M= mean
 µ (mu: mew)= population mean
 Roman Letters (e.g., A, B, C, D) are used to
represent statistics
 Greek Letters (e.g., α, β) are used to represent
parameters
 α= significance level; probability of committing a
Type I Error (α= .05)
 p= probability value (p= .05)
 Null Hypothesis= (H0: µ1 - µ2 = 0 or H0: µ1 = µ2)
 Alternative Hypothesis= (H1: µ1-µ2 ≠ 0 or H1: µ1 ≠
µ2 )
 Sometimes you may see it noted as HA 6
Types of Hypotheses

 Research Hypotheses
 Statistical Hypotheses

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Research Hypotheses

 Research Hypothesis: A statement of the

relationship among two or more variables or
groups.
 The acceptance or non-acceptance of which
is based on resolving a logical alternative
with a null hypothesis.

 Example: Graduate students who read the

text in research methods will score higher on
their comprehensive exams than graduate
students who did not read their research
methods text. 8
Research Hypotheses (continuation)

 Research hypotheses can be stated as

Directional or Non-directional.
 Directional hypotheses predict the specific
relationship among two or more variables or
groups:
 Graduate students who read the text in research
methods will score higher on their comprehensive
exams than graduate students who did not read
their research methods text.
H0: µ1 < µ2 H1: µ1 > µ2
 IQ scores will correlate in a positive manner with
Self Esteem Scores
 Cats will bark less frequently than Dogs
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Research Hypotheses (continuation)

 Non-Directional Hypotheses predict that

there will be differences among two or more
groups, but do not specify the direction of
the differences
 Men and Women will differ in their recall of
phone numbers
 The scores on the Geriatric Depression Scale will
differ between people with Stroke and people
with Alzheimer’s disease
 IQ scores will correlate with Self Esteem scores

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H0: µ1 = µ2 H1: µ1 ≠ µ2
Research Hypotheses (continuation)

 Your Turn!
 Come up with some directional and
non-directional research hypotheses
 Share with the class

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Statistical Hypotheses
 Statistical Hypotheses are mathematical, or
logical statements that help researchers
interpret the results of research

 Statistical hypotheses consist of the Null

Hypothesis (H0), the hypothesis of no
difference and the Alternative Hypothesis
(H1 or HA) which is similar in form to the
research hypothesis.

 Null:(H0: µ1 - µ2 = 0 )
 Alternative: (H1: µ1 - µ2 ≠ 0) 12
 Written out examples:
 Null: There will be no difference in the
comprehensive test scores of graduate
students who read the text in research methods
and those who did not read their research
methods text.

 Alternative: Graduate students who read the

text in research methods will score higher on
their comprehensive exams than graduate
students who did not read their research
methods text.

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Statistical Hypotheses (continuation)

 Remember, and this is important:

 The null hypothesis always implies that

there is no relation or statistical
difference between variables or groups

 The alternative hypothesis implies that

there is a meaningful relationship among
variables or groups

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Testing Hypotheses

 Is it possible that our observations occurred

by chance?

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Testing Hypotheses (continuation)

 We use a variety of statistical procedures

to test null hypotheses. The choice of
which procedure we use depends on a
variety of factors including:

 the research hypothesis,

 the data,
 the sampling strategy,
 and what we want to be able to say as a
result of our testing.
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Types of Tests
 Statistical procedures that are commonly used for
hypothesis testing include: correlation, analysis of
variance (ANOVA), analysis of covariance (ANCOVA),
regression, multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA),
t-tests, and Chi-Square. Each of these procedures has an
associated test statistic, which is used to determine
significance. For example ANOVA, ANCOVA, and
regression use F statistics and their associated p-values.
 Multivariate procedures, like MANOVA, use a variety of
test statistics with interesting names, like Wilk’s lambda.
These are then related to a more common test statistic,
like F.
 The secret here, for the layperson, is that all test
statistics are eventually related to a probability
distribution and a p-value. These p-values mean the
same thing across test statistics.
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Error Types
 In hypothesis testing, we must contend with two
types of errors -- Type I and Type II.
 Errors are mistakes that we can make when
judging the null hypothesis

 Type I error is what happens when the tested

hypothesis is falsely rejected. (It is when you say you
found something, but that something is really an
error.) A type I error is a false positive.
 Type II error is what happens when a false tested
hypothesis is not rejected (Hays, 1986). (It is when
you don’t find something that is, in fact, there.) A
type II error is a false negative.

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Error Types (continuation)

 Alpha is the level of probability (pre-set

by the researcher) that the tested
hypothesis will be falsely rejected. Alpha
is the pre-set risk of a Type I error. In
other words, alpha is the degree of risk
that you accept, in advance of conducting
the study, that what you find will be an
error.
 Beta is the probability (often neglected
by the researcher) that a false null
hypothesis will not be rejected. Beta is
the probability that you won’t find what
you are looking for if, in fact, it is really
there.

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Error Types (continuation)

 The picture on the next slide, which

is modified from Hays (1986) and
Ferguson and Takane (1989),
illustrates the relationships among
Type I and Type II errors and alpha
and beta.

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Error Types (continuation)

 Error Types Chart

H0 is True H1 is True

Reject H0 Type I Correct

α 1- β
Decision
Fail to
Reject Correct Type II
(decide in 1- α β
favor of H0) 21
Example

Defendant Defendant
Do we use Null Innocent Guilty
Hypotheses in the real
world? Reject
Presumption
Type I Correct
of Innocence
Error
(Guilty
Verdict)
“Innocent until Proven
Guilty”
Fail to Reject Correct Type II
Presumption
of Innocence
Error
(Not Guilty
Verdict)

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23
Test Statistics, Probability,
and Significance
 In order to test a hypothesis, we
compare the obtained value of a
test statistic (e.g., the obtained F)
to a critical value of the test
statistic (e.g., a critical F) that is
associated with the preset
significance level (alpha).
 If the obtained value of the test
statistic is greater than the critical
value, we determine that there is a
significant difference or
relationship.
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Test Statistics, Probability,
and Significance (continuation)
 Test Statistic: The specific statistic (i.e., the
tool) that is chosen to test the null
hypothesis. Examples include F, t, r.
 Obtained Value: The actual value obtained
when applying the test statistic to the data of
interest. The probability value associated
with the obtained value is p.
 Critical Value: The critical value of the test
statistic that is associated with the chosen
significance level (alpha). If the obtained
value is greater that the critical value, the
result is significant.

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Test Statistics, Probability,
and Significance (continuation)
 Probability Value: The probability that observed
relationships or differences are due to chance.
 Alpha: Alpha is also known as significance level or
rejection region. It is the level of probability set
by the researcher as grounds for rejection of the
null hypothesis (Williams, 1986, p. 58). Alpha is
the probability level associated with the critical
value of the test statistic.
 In other words, alpha is our predetermined risk
that differences that we declare to be real are
actually due to chance.
 Obtained: This is also known as the obtained
probability (p): significance of the test statistic.
It is the “probability that the data could have
arisen if Ho were true” (Cohen, 1994, p. 998).

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Test Statistics, Probability,
and Significance (continuation)
 Significance: What happens when the obtained
probability p is less than our predetermined
alpha. Significance also occurs when the
obtained value of the test statistic is greater
than the critical value of the test statistic.
 Test Statistic Probability Value
 Critical Value Significance Level (alpha)
 Obtained Value Obtained or Actual Probability (p)
 Note that larger obtained values of test statistics
are generally related with smaller values of p.
 If Obtained Value > Critical Value, then *
Significance *
 If p < Alpha, then * Significance *

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Revisiting the Bell Curve

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Test Statistics, Probability,
and Significance Cont.
 Whether you are looking at obtained values
of test statistics in relation to critical
values or you are looking at actual
probability levels, it is important to note
that the test statistics and their associated
probabilities only tell us the probability
that a difference or relationship occurred
by chance…

 These statistics DO NOT tell us the size of

the group differences or the strength of
relationships.
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Steps in Hypothesis Testing for
Quantitative Research Designs

 Hypothesis testing is a 4 phase

procedure:
 Phase I: Research Hypotheses,
Design, and Variables
 Phase II: Statistical Hypotheses
 Phase III: Hypotheses Testing
 Phase IV:
Decision/Interpretation
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Phase I: Research Hypotheses,
Design, and Variables
1. State your research hypotheses.
2. Decide on a research design based on
your research problem, your
hypotheses, and what you really want
to be able to say about your results
(e.g., if you want to say that A caused
B, you will need an experimental or
time-series design; if probable cause is
sufficient, a quasi-experimental design
would be appropriate).
3. Operationally define your variables.
Recall that one variable can have more
than one operational definition.

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Phase II: Statistical
Hypotheses
1. Consider your chosen statistical
procedures.
2. Write one statistical null
hypotheses for each operational
definition of each variable that
reflects that statistical operations
to be performed.

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 Phase III: Hypotheses Testing
 Complete the following steps for each statistical null hypothesis:

1. Select a significance level (alpha).

2. Compute the value of the test statistic (e.g., F, r, t).

3. Compare the obtained value of the test statistics with the

critical value associated with the selected significance level or
compare the obtained p-value with the pre-selected alpha value.

4. If the obtained value of the test statistic is greater than the

critical value (or if the obtained p-value is less than the pre-
selected alpha value), reject the null hypothesis. If the obtained
value is less than the critical value of the test hypothesis, fail to
reject the null hypothesis.

 Another way of looking it: If p is less than or equal to alpha,

reject the null hypothesis.

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Phase IV:
Decision/Interpretation
1.For each research hypothesis, consider the
decisions regarding the statistical null hypotheses.
2. For each research hypothesis, consider
qualitative contextual information relating
potential plausibility.
3. Cautiously explain your findings with respect to
the research hypotheses.
4. List and discuss the limitations (threats to valid
inference).
 Note: Null hypothesis testing is currently under
scrutiny (see e.g., Cohen, 1994; Kirk, 1996).

 It is generally recommended that you report

the effect size along with the value of the test
statistic and the p-value. An alternative is to
report confidence intervals.

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Points to Consider about
Hypotheses Testing
 FISHING IN LAKE ALICE
 We don’t prove the null hypothesis.
 If you go fishing on Lake Alice and you don’t
catch fish, you cannot conclude that there are
no fish in the lake!!!

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Points to Consider about
Hypotheses Testing (continuation)
 What circumstances might keep us
from finding fish in the lake?
Possible problems include:
1. wrong or insensitive outcome
measures (using the large net for
small fish),
2. sampling problems (looking in the
wrong part of the lake), or
3. methodological problems (scooping
the top of the lake rather than the
bottom, where the fish hang out).
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Points to Consider about
Hypotheses Testing (continuation)
 Returning to hypothesis testing:
 Failure to reject the null hypothesis
cannot be interpreted as proof that
no differences or relationships exist.
Existing differences or relationships
might be obscured by:
1. insensitive outcome measures (the wrong
fishnet),
2. inappropriate statistical designs,
3. poor sampling strategies, and
4. low statistical power.

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Questions about Hypotheses

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