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where
which leads to
Revenue Probability
$35,000 0.1
$44,000 0.3
$50,000 0.4
$60,000 0.2
0.4 $1,100
0.5 $800
$700
0.3 $700
$625
Copyright ©2012 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Engineering Economy, Fifteenth Edition
Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458
By William G. Sullivan, Elin M. Wicks, and C. Patrick Koelling
All rights reserved.
Continuous random variables present special
challenges, and special opportunities.
• Two frequently used assumptions are
– cash-flow amounts are distributed according to a
normal distribution, and
– cash flows are statistically independent.
Thus, if
then
So
New: 70k/yr
New: 70k/yr 2 yr
3 yr
New: 55k/yr
4 yr
75,000
$120,360
0.35
60,000
$68,992 0.45 $66,288
$0
Current $0
software
Continue $1.48mil
Sales
$2.1mil Abandon -$6.55mil