ANDESYS INTRODUCTION

Systems Analysis and Design

Dr. Anna Bella D. Siriban-Manalang
1. Problem Solving
Strategies - Why Bother?
Topics
•Defining the Problem
•A Heuristic
•What's the Problem?
•Right Problem Definition, BUT Wrong Solution
Real Problem Versus the Perceived Problem
Impatient Guests
The Solution
• The situation: A few years ago a major oil company
was developing a process for the Department of Energy
to produce liquid petroleum products from coal in
order to reduce the U.S. dependence on foreign oil. In
this process, solid coal particles were ground up, mixed
with solvent and hydrogen, then passed through a
furnace heater to a reactor that would convert the coal
to gasoline (see figure below). After installation, the
process was not operating properly. Excessive amounts
of a tar-like carbonaceous material were being
deposited on the pipes in the furnace, fouling, and in
some cases plugging the pipes.
Gasoline from Coal
• The instructions given by the manager to his research group to solve the
perceived problem: "Improve the quality of the solvents used to dissolve
the coal and prevent these tar-like deposits." A major research program
was initiated. After a year and a half of effort was spent on the process, no
one solvent proved to be a better solution to the problem than any other.
Perhaps a more general problem statement such as, "Determine why the
carbon deposits are forming and how they can be eliminated" would have
revealed the true problem. The real problem was the velocity of the
mixture through the pipe was so slow that the particles and solvent were
reacting on the inside of the pipes in the furnace to form a coal-tar-like
substance that was building up on the pipe wall. The problem was solved
by using a smaller diameter pipe to increase the velocity through the
furnace pipe, so that the particles and solvent had less time to react in the
furnace to form the tar-like deposits. In addition, the high velocity caused
the coal particles in the fluid to act as scouring agents on the furnace pipe
wall. This velocity increase was accomplished by using a pipe of smaller
diameter while maintaining the same total flow rate. After the furnace
pipe was changed, no further problems of this nature were experienced.
Courtesy of Prof. Antonio Garcia, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ
85287-6006.
 Decreasing Profits
• The Situation: In the 1980's, a government-operated factory in a
developing country was taking material from a refinery and using it
to make fertilizer. When the plant was designed and built, the price
of the fertilizer was quite high and large profits were expected to
be made. Unfortunately, shortly after the plant was in operation,
the price of fertilizer dropped, and as a result the plant was
operating at a loss. The instructions given by the government to
solve the perceived problem: "Close the plant because the price of
the fertilizer is too low and we can no longer afford to operate it."
However, student engineers investigated the situation as a class
project and found the real problem was not the price of fertilizer,
but the inefficiency of operation which resulted from a power
failure to the plant three to four times per week. There were
enormous costs associated with restarting the plant after each
power failure. The plant could still have made a substantial profit if
the power failures had been prevented with emergency
generators.
 Bargain Prices
• The situation: A local merchant on Main Street in Ann Arbor was having
difficulty selling a health food mix from the rain forest called Rain Forest
Crunch, which was a hot selling item in other stores. Part of the
attractiveness of Rain Forest Crunch was that it was indeed from the
Brazilian rainforest and part of the proceeds of the sale went to protect
the rain forest. The instructions given by the store manager: "Lower the
price of the item to increase sales." Rain Forest Crunch still did not sell.
The manager lowered the price further. Still no sales. After lowering the
price two more times to a level that was well below the competitors', the
item still did not sell. Finally, the manager walked around the store, and
studied the display of Rain Forest Crunch. Then the real problem was
uncovered. The problem was not the high cost of the item; the real
problem was that it was not in a prominent position in the store to be
easily seen by the customers. Once the item was made more visible, sales
began to soar.
• Courtesy of Margaret Michael, University of Michigan
 Take the Pepsi™ Challenge
• Pepsi™ Cola developed a TV commercial in which they set up a stand on a busy
sidewalk and stopped passersby and asked them to take a blind test to compare
Coke™ with Pepsi™.
• As the taste testers made their choice the cameras began to roll to record the
results. The resulting video clips were then shown in the TV commercials.
• However the commercials only showed the testers that chose Pepsi™ so it looked
as if Pepsi™ was the overwhelming favorite between these two soft drinks.
• Coke™ was greatly concerned about Pepsi™ making them obsolete.
• Coke’s response and problem statement:
• "Develop, market and sell a soft drink that tastes like Pepsi™."
• Coke™ did develop the "New Coke" and put it on the market. It lasted 77 days
after which they brought back the "Old Coke" and called it Classic Coke™.
• Tens of millions of dollars were lost on this initiative.
• Rather than define the problem as make a new soft drink that tastes like Pepsi™,
they should have defined the problem as
• "Find a way to counter act or balance Pepsi’s TV commercials"
http://www.engin.umich.edu/scps/html/icm/frames.htm