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Procesos estocásticos
Estadística de conteo en la detección de la
radiación
Distribuciones: Binomial, Normal y Poisson
Propagación de error
Limites de detectabilidad
Mediciones de Radiación
Sum = σ𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
Σ
Media Experimental: 𝑋𝑒 =
𝑁
Los datos se pueden representar mediante una función de distribución de
frecuencia
Fig.3.1 Distribution
Table 3.1 Example of function for the data given
data distribution in table 3.1 ( Knoll,2010
function ( Knoll,2010 page 66)
page 66)
• La tabla 3.1 muestra un conjunto de datos con 20 entradas: el valor máximo es 14 mientras que el
valor mínimo es 3.
𝒅𝒊 = 𝒙𝒊 − 𝒙𝒆
Fig. 3.2 (a) El gráfico de los datos dados en la tabla 3.1 valores correspondientes para el d residual para 𝒅 ^ 𝟐 se muestran en la
parte (b) y (c) (Knoll 2010, p.68)
Desviacion
Se puede definir como la cantidad que difiere del valor medio verdadero X .
𝜀𝑖 = 𝑥𝑖 - 𝑥
Varianza de la muestra
- Se puede definir como la cantidad de dispersión interna para los datos dados.
- Se puede calcular como el promedio del valor de cada desviación después de obtener el cuadrado:
1
𝑆2 = 𝜀2 = σ𝑁
𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥 . )2
𝑁
- Aquí es difícil de aplicar porque no es fácil obtener 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑥 solo después de obtener una gran
cantidad de lecturas, por lo que lo más fácil es usar la media experimental 𝑥𝑒 y, por lo tanto, será
más residual que la desviación. Pero con el uso de la media experimental :
1
𝑆2 = σ𝑁
𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥𝑒 )^2
𝑁 −1
Nota: Esta ecuación con N pequeña, si N es muy grande, usaremos el valor cuadrado medio ya sea
residual o desviación
Fig.3.3 Funciones de
distribución para dos
conjuntos de datos
diferentes cantidades de
fluctuación interna.( Knoll
2010, p.68).
Small
For narrow Small Sample
deviation from
distribution variance
the mean
S 2 = σ∞ 2
𝑥=0( 𝑥 − 𝑥 ) F(x) ……….. (a)
S 2 = 𝑥 2 - ( x )2 …………… ( b)
De la ecuación (a) ya que esta expresión no se puede usar en el cálculo, podemos usar la
expresión en la ecuación (b).
The Binomial
Distribution
Three-specific
The Poisson
Statistical
Distribution
models
The Gaussian
(Normal)
Distribution
Distribución Binomial
General:
Expression:
La probabilidad de contar el número de éxitos "x" se puede calcular de la siguiente manera:
𝒏!
p(x) = 𝒏−𝒙 ! 𝒙! px (1- p )𝑛−𝑥 n & x are integers
dónde:
n: número de ensayos; La probabilidad de éxito en cada prueba es "p" (no cambia)
Ejemplo de uso de la distribución binomial
Supongamos que tenemos una canasta con 5 discos numerados del 1 al 5. Si la probabilidad de
seleccionar cualquiera de los discos es la misma, entonces la probabilidad de que el próximo
3
disco elegido tenga el número 2, 3, 4 es: Probability = = 0.60
5
𝑥=
ҧ Pn
where :
P: Probability
n : # of Trials
Continuar: Distribución binomial
Variación prevista 𝝈 ^ 𝟐
- Esto está asociado con la probabilidad predicha y también se conoce como la dispersión
sobre la media predicha por el modelo estadístico P (x). 𝜎 2 = σ𝑛𝑥=0( 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ )2 P(x)
• 𝜎 2 = n p (1 - p )
• 𝜎 2 = 𝑥ҧ (1 - p ) where 𝑥ҧ = n p
• 𝜎 2= 𝑥(ҧ 1 − 𝑝)
Ejemplo:
Suponga que n = 10, p = 0.60
Media pronosticada 𝑥 ̅ = 6
Varianza prevista = 𝜎 ^ 2 = 6 ∗ 0.4 = 2.4
Desviación estándar prevista 𝜎 = √ (𝜎 ^ 2) = 1.549
Distribución de Poisson
General:
Similar a la distribución binomial pero matemáticamente simplificada.
Para una probabilidad pronosticada pequeña y constante, la distribución binomial se
reduce a la distribución de Poisson.
Uso :
Para los experimentos de conteo nuclear donde el número de núcleos es grande y el
tiempo de observación es pequeño en comparación con la vida media.
• Expression :
( 𝒙 )𝒙
P (x) = 𝒆− 𝒙
𝒙!
Ejemplo:
Si la probabilidad <<<< 1 necesitamos cambiar a la distribución de Poisson
Por ej. En el caso de las vacunas anuales, si tenemos un grupo de muestra de
1,000 personas con 1000 ensayos, la probabilidad de que alguien se vacune hoy es p
= 1/365 = 0.00274. En este caso, necesitamos cambiar a la distribución de Poission.
𝑥 ̅ = pn = 2.74 𝜎 = √ (𝑥 ̅) = 1.66
Fig.3.5 The Poisson
distribution for a mean
value =2.74 (Knoll 2010, p
75).
( 𝒙 )𝒙
P (x) = 𝒆− 𝒙
𝒙!
La ecuación anterior se usa con un valor medio = 2.74
x P(x)
0 0.065
1 0.177
2 0.242
3 0.221
. .
. .
Distribución Gaussiana o normal
GENERAL :
Este tipo de distribución se utiliza en los siguientes casos::
Expresión :
( 𝑥 − 𝑥 )2
1 −
P(x) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 2𝑥 donde x es un número entero
2𝜋 𝑥
The Properties of the Gaussian or Normal Distribution
Normalized σ∞
𝑥=0 𝑃 𝑥 = 1
Example:
Por ej. En el caso de las vacunas anuales, si tenemos un grupo de muestra de 10,000
personas con 1000 ensayos, la probabilidad de que alguien se vacune hoy es p = 1/365 =
0.00274. . En este caso, necesitamos cambiar a la distribución gaussiana.
n= 10,000
x =np =27.4 Large number Normal distribution to Poisson distribution
is are good for estimating :
1- Statistical properties .
2-Uncertainty.
Continue : The example for Gaussian Distribution
( 𝑥 − 27.4)2
1 −
P(x) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 2 ∗27.4
2𝜋 ∗27.4
𝜎= 𝑥 = 27.4 = 5.23
• From fig.3.6 (b) it can be seen that there is a Fig.3.6 (a) Discrete Gaussian
distribution for mean value x=
shift to zero value of the 𝜖deviation compared to 27.4. (b)Plot of the
the mean value location corresponding continuous from
• It is continuous for Gaussian distribution . the Gaussian .( Knoll 2010,
p.77).
Continue : The example for Gaussian Distribution
−𝜖2
2
• G(𝜖) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 2𝑥
𝜋𝑥
Where :
G (𝜖) 𝑑𝜖 ∶ Differential probability of
observing
a deviation in d𝜖 about 𝜖. Fig.3.7 Comparison of the discrete
and continuous forms of the
Gaussian distribution
Continue : The example for Gaussian Distribution
𝜖
The ratio t=
𝜎
𝟐/𝟐
G(t)= 𝟐/𝝅 𝒆−𝒓 This is a universal form of the Gaussian Distribution 0≤ 𝑡 ≤ ∞
Applications of the Statistical Models
1- Use statistical analysis to show that the internal fluctuation is compatible with statistical
predictions.
2-In order to examine the method available to make uncertainty predictions about uncertainty , one
should associate with single measurement to avoid effect of statistical fluctuation.
Application A: Check the Counting System to See whether Observed Fluctuations are
consistent with
expected statistical fluctuation.
The counting laboratories are subjected to quality control standards once a month on an
ongoing basis. In this process a record of 20-50 from detector are read using the present
procedure and any abnormal records of fluctuation can be monitored, which helps to find the
defects.
Fig.3.9An illustration of
From Fig.3.9 we can note : Application A of counting
• N ( in experimental data – left side) is independent measurement of samestatistics-the inspection of a
physical quantity. data for consistency with
statistical model.(Knoll
• Since the sample variance 𝑆 2 = 7.36 ,the predicted variance 𝜎 2 =mean value = 8.8 ( because it
is Poisson). From these value we considered that we have less fluctuation in the data. As we
only have limited data and as these values are close to each other , we need to use another test
which is” Chi-squared test”.
𝑋 2 = 𝑥1𝑒 σ𝑁
𝑖=1( 𝑥𝑖 - 𝑥𝑒 )
2
using mean value
(𝑁−1)
𝑋2 = 𝑆2 using sample variance.
𝑋𝑒
If the fluctuation is closely modeled by Poisson 𝑆 2 = 𝜎 2 , since it is Poisson , so we will use x
=𝑥𝑒 .
From the table above , the p s represents the probability for any sample from the Poisson
distribution a large value of 𝑋 2 compared to the specific value in the Table 3.3.
𝜎
• Fractional standard deviation can be defined as of simple counting measurement, if we record 100
𝑥
counts and fractional standard deviation is 10% , we can reduce it to 1%if we raise the counts to
10,000.
• All above is for general cases , for the nuclear counting we will apply 𝜎 = 𝑥.
Can not associate the standard deviation with square root if any quantity that t s not directly
measured number of count.
• Association can not apply for the following :
1- Counting rate.
2-Sums of differences of counts.
3- Averages of independent counts
4- Any derives quantity.
Error Propagation
If we assume that the measurements are performed the expected Row Count and even followed
Gaussian distribution for this case only one parameter will be needed.
If we assume that the counts was recorded by using back ground free detector system , which record
only half of the quantity emitted by the source from this we can conclude that only 50% is the
efficiency for this detector. And until we get the correct number who get out of the source must be
multiplied by 2 and if this repeated we will get new distribution.
The new distribution will have a shape of Gaussian distribution , but here we can
not get the 𝜎 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡ion from square root of the mean value ,
therefore here we need two parameter the mean value & Standard deviation .
1 1 ( 𝑥 −𝑥 )2
G(x) dx = 𝜎 exp (- ) dx Probability of observing value between x
2𝜋 2𝜎 2
and x+dx
−𝑡2
2
G(t ) dt = 𝑒 2 dt
𝜋
Error propagation :
𝜎𝑢 2 𝜎𝑢 2 𝜎𝑢 2
𝜎𝑢 2 = ( ) 𝜎𝑥 2 +( ) 𝜎𝑦 2 +( ) 𝜎𝑧 2 + ……. U= u ( x, y , z, …..) derived
𝜎𝑥 𝜎𝑦 𝜎𝑧
quantity
*This equation known as error propagation formula where x , y and z are independent , and
can be used
in all nuclear measurements.
The use of this equation will be cleared by using t in some simple cases.
u= x + y or u=x-y
𝜕𝑢 𝜕𝑢
==> =1 or =∓1
𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑦
net counts = total counts – back ground counts this mean u = x-y
Example :
𝜎𝑢
Case # 2 Multiplication or Division by a constant:
u=Ax
𝜕𝑢
=A not associate uncertainty
𝜕𝑥
𝜎𝑢 = A 𝜎𝑥
Similarly
𝑥
v=
B
𝜎𝑥
σv =
𝐵
𝜎𝑢 𝜎𝑣
& are fractional errors same as the original fractional errors.
𝑢 𝑣
From all above we conclude that the multiply or divide value by constant does not change the
relative error.
Example:
𝑥
If x is counts recorded over time t , the counting rate = r = , where t measured in small
𝑡
uncertainty
and considered to be constant
x= 1220 , t = 5 s
1220
r= = 224 1/s
5
𝜎𝑥 1220
𝜎𝑟 = = = 6.7 s
𝑡 5
Counting rate = 224 ∓ 6.7 counts /second
Case # 3 Multiplication or Division of counts :
Multiplication
𝜕𝑢 𝜕𝑢
u=xy
𝜕𝑥
=y 𝜕𝑦
=x
𝜎𝑢 2 = 𝑦 2 𝜎𝑥 2 + 𝑥 2 𝜎𝑦 2
𝜎𝑢 2 𝜎𝑥 2 𝜎𝑦 2
( ) = ( ) +( ) divided by 𝑢2 =𝑥 2 𝑦 2
𝑢 𝑥 𝑦
Division
𝑥 𝜕𝑢 1 𝜕𝑢 𝑥
u= = =-
𝑦 𝜕𝑥 𝑦 𝜕𝑦 𝑦2
1 𝑥 2
𝜎𝑢 2 =( )2 𝜎𝑥 2 +(- ) 𝜎𝑦 2
𝑦 𝑦2
𝜎𝑢 𝜎𝑥 𝜎𝑦 2
( )2 = ( )2 +( )
𝑢 𝑥 𝑦
𝜎𝑥 𝜎𝑦
In both cases, the fractional error in x and y and => will combine to give the fractional
𝑥 𝑦
error in u
Example :
To calculate the ratio of two sources activities from independent counts. (Neglect the background)
𝜎𝑅
= 0.0135
𝑅
𝜎𝑅 = 0.013 * R = 0.027
R = 1.985 ∓ 0.027
Case # 4 Mean value of multiple independent counts:
If N repeated counts of equal times are recorded from the same source.
These counts are represented as x1 , x2 , x3, ……𝑥𝑁
Also σ = 𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + … … 𝑥𝑁
𝜎𝑢 2 𝜎𝑢 2 𝜎𝑢 2
To find the expected error in σ. we use 𝜎𝑢 2 = ( ) 𝜎𝑥 2 +( ) 𝜎𝑦 2 +( ) 𝜎𝑧 2 +
𝜎𝑥 𝜎𝑦 𝜎𝑧
…….
𝜕σ
so =1 for independent counts.
𝜕𝑥𝑖
But 𝜎𝑥𝑖 = 𝑥𝑖
𝜎σ2 = x1 + x2 +…….𝑥𝑁 = σ
𝜎σ = σ
σ
σ and 𝜎 values would be same if we were dealing with single count & the mean value x =
𝑁
𝜎σ σ 𝑁𝑥 𝑥
The expected standard deviation 𝜎𝑥= = = =
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 𝑁
=> 𝑥𝑖 ≅ 𝑥 since any typical count would not be different from the mean .
Based on N independent counts, the expected error is smaller by a factor of 𝑁 compared to
any single measurement .
Thus it can be concluded that if we aim to improve the statistical precision of measurement
by factor of 2, we must invest 4 times the initial counting time.
Case # 5 Combination of independent measurements with unequal
errors:
If each measurement xi has a weighting factor ai, we can calculate the best value
𝑥 , from the linear combination given below: