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Sales & Wilkins, A

Zurn Company
Demand Forecasting
Group 7
Krishnakant Maheshwari PGP09197
Shubham Divyanshu PGP09238
Hrangbung Darthang PGP09189
G Anil Kumar PGP09187
Neha Khedkar PGP09209
Sagar Rathee PGP09227
Sankalp Tigga PGP09231

● Company
○ Zurn Industries acquired Wilkins in 1971
○ High-quality products for plumbing, municipal waterworks, fire production
○ They have 2 key products- Pressure Vacuum Breakers and Fire Valves
● Customers
○ Major revenue from general plumbing market and irrigation customer market
○ Future opportunities seen in fire protection and municipal waterworks
● Collaborators
○ Commercial and institutional construction companies
● Context
○ The company develops quarterly forecasts for each product family. There is an
inaccuracy in the forecast at the individual product level however the aggregate
forecast level look OK.
Problem Statement

Suggest way to use statistical forecasting methods to ease the forecasting

process and improve the reliability of the sales forecast
Wilkins Forecasting Method

● Wilkins uses a forecasting method involving a Forecast Master and a

Planning Bill.
● Wilkins organizes its products into product families and has a total of 25 of
these product families in a Forecast Master.
● The demand for each week is calculated and an estimate of the demand for
the upcoming quarters is made.
● The Forecasting Master is accompanied by a Planning Bill that comprises of
5 essential elements.
Planning Bill

● Each product that belongs to a product family has a sales history.

● An estimate is calculated on the average amount of products sold per day in each
quarter and for the last four quarters.
● A prediction is made concerning the mean daily sales of each product for the next full
● The forecast of the family product is distributed among each product according to a
percent of sales and from this; an estimate is made of potential future sales.
● A projection is held on the yearly sales for each product in a family.
Forecast Accuracy

● Forecasted PVB Sales 53560 PVB Units and 559 valve units
● Actual PVB sales 48159 Units and 580 fire valve units
● The company should take into
account dummy variable and
seasonality as time increases
● Bad forecasts increase risk of
Conclusion having high inventory costs
and thus lower profits
● It may also cost stock-outs due
to low inventory