Probability

Theory
 Topics
• Basic Probability Concepts:
Sample Spaces and Events, Simple
Probability, and Joint Probability,
• Conditional Probability
• Bayes’ Theorem
• Probability Distribution
 Sample Spaces
Collection of all Possible Outcomes
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:

e.g. All 52 cards of a bridge deck:

 Events
• Simple Event: Outcome from a Sample Space
with 1 Characteristic
e.g. A Red Card from a deck of cards.
• Joint Event: Involves 2 Outcomes
Simultaneously
e.g. An Ace which is also a Red Card from a
deck of cards.
 Visualizing Events
• Contingency Tables
Ace Not Ace Total
Black 2 24 26
Red 2 24 26
Total 4 48 52

•
 Simple Events
The Event of a Happy Face

There are 5 happy faces in this collection of 18 objects

 Joint Events
The Event of a Happy Face AND Light Colored

3 Happy Faces which are light in color

 Special Events

Null event Null Event

Club & diamond on

1 card draw

Complement of event
For event A,
'
All events not In A: A
 Dependent or
Independent Events
The Event of a Happy Face GIVEN it is Light Colored
E = Happy FaceLight Color

3 Items: 3 Happy Faces Given they are Light Colored

 Contingency Table
A Deck of 52 Cards
Red Ace
Not an Total
Ace
Ace
Red 2 24 26
Black 2 24 26
Total 4 48 52
Sample Space
 Contingency Table
2500 Employees of Company ABC

Agree Neutral Opposed | Total

MALE 900 200 400 | 1500

FEMALE 300 100 600 | 1000

1200 300 1000 | 2500

Total

Sample Space
 Tree Diagram
Event Possibilities Ace
Red
Cards Not an Ace
Full
Deck
Ace
of Cards
Black
Cards
Not an Ace
 Probability
•Probability is the numerical 1 Certain
measure of the likelihood
that the event will occur.
•Value is between 0 and 1. .5
•Sum of the probabilities of
all mutually exclusive and
collective exhaustive events
is 1. 0 Impossible
 Computing Probability
• The Probability of an Event, E:
Number of Event Outcomes
P(E) =
Total Number of Possible Outcomes in the Sample Space
X
= T e.g. P( ) = 2/36
(There are 2 ways to get one 6 and the other 4)

• Each of the Outcome in the Sample Space

equally likely to occur.
 Computing
Joint Probability
The Probability of a Joint Event, A and B:
P(A and B)

Number of Event Outcomes from both A and B

= Total Number of Possible Outcomes in Sample Space

e.g. P(Red Card and Ace)

2 Red Aces 1
= 
52 Total Number of Cards 26
 Joint Probability Using
Contingency Table

Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)

A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

Joint Probability Marginal (Simple) Probability

 Computing
Compound Probability
The Probability of a Compound Event, A or B:
Numer of Event Outcomes from Either A or B
P  A or B 
Total Outcomes in the Sample Space

e.g.
P(Red Card or Ace)
4 Aces + 26 Red Cards  2 Red Aces 28 7
  
52 Total Number of Cards 52 13
 Contingency Table
2500 Employees of Company ABC

Agree Neutral Opposed | Total

MALE 900 200 400 | 1500

FEMALE 300 100 600 | 1000

1200 300 1000 | 2500

Total

Sample Space
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
2. Neutral
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
2. Neutral 300/2500 = 0.12
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
2. Neutral 300/2500 = 0.12
3. Opposed to the proposal, GIVEN that
the employee selected is a female
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
2. Neutral 300/2500 = 0.12
3. Opposed to the proposal, GIVEN that
the employee selected is a female 600/1000 = 0.60
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
2. Neutral 300/2500 = 0.12
3. Opposed to the proposal, GIVEN that
the employee selected is a female 600/1000 = 0.60
4. Either a female or opposed to the
proposal
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
2. Neutral 300/2500 = 0.12
3. Opposed to the proposal, GIVEN that
the employee selected is a female 600/1000 = 0.60
4. Either a female or opposed to the
proposal ……….. 1000/2500 + 1000/2500 - 600/2500 =
1400/2500 = 0.56
 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
2. Neutral 300/2500 = 0.12
3. Opposed to the proposal, GIVEN that
the employee selected is a female 600/1000 = 0.60
4. Either a female or opposed to the
proposal ……….. 1000/2500 + 1000/2500 - 600/2500 =
1400/2500 = 0.56

5. Are Gender and Opinion (statistically) independent?

 The pervious table refers to 2500 employees of ABC Company, classified by gender
and by opinion on a company proposal to emphasize fringe benefits rather than wage
increases in an impending contract discussion

Calculate the probability that an employee selected (at random) from this group will be:
1. A female opposed to the proposal 600/2500 = 0.24
2. Neutral 300/2500 = 0.12
3. Opposed to the proposal, GIVEN that
the employee selected is a female 600/1000 = 0.60
4. Either a female or opposed to the
proposal ……….. 1000/2500 + 1000/2500 - 600/2500 =
1400/2500 = 0.56

5. Are Gender and Opinion (statistically) independent?

For Opinion and Gender to be independent, the joint probability of each pair of
A events (GENDER) and B events (OPINION) should equal the product of the
respective unconditional probabilities….clearly this does not hold…..check, e.g.,
the prob. Of MALE and IN FAVOR against the prob. of MALE times the prob.
of IN FAVOR …they are not equal….900/2500 does not equal 1500/2500 *
1200/2500
 Compound Probability
Addition Rule
P(A1 or B1 ) = P(A1) +P(B1) - P(A1 and B1)
Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)

A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

For Mutually Exclusive Events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

 Computing
Conditional Probability
The Probability of Event A given that Event B has
occurred:
P  A and B 
P(A B) =
P  B
e.g.
2 Red Aces 1
P(Red Card given that it is an Ace) = 
4 Aces 2
 Conditional Probability
Using Contingency Table
Conditional Event: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color

Color
Type Red Black Total Revised
Sample
Ace 2 2 4 Space
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
P(Ace AND Red) 2 / 52 2
P(Ace | Red) =  
P(Red) 26 / 52 26
 Conditional Probability and
Statistical Independence
Conditional Probability:
P ( A and B )
P(AB) =
P( B )

Multiplication Rule:
P(A and B) = P(A B) • P(B)
= P(B A) • P(A)
 Conditional Probability and
Statistical Independence (continued)
Events are Independent:
P(A  B) = P(A)
Or, P(B  A) = P(B)
Or, P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)

Events A and B are Independent when the

probability of one event, A is not affected by
another event, B.
 Bayes’ Theorem
P( A Bi )  P( Bi )
P(Bi A) =
P( A B1 )  P( B1 )      P( A Bk )  P( Bk )

P( Bi and A )
 Adding up
P( A )
the parts
of A in all
Same
the B’s
Event
 Bayes’ Theorem

Given a hypothesis H and an event E

P(H|E) = P(E|H) x P(H)

P(E)

Where P(E) = P(E|H) x P(H) + P(E|H) x

P(H)
 Example
You have a physical complaint which is one of
the symptoms of a rare and unpleasant
disease. 1 in 500 people have the disease.
The probability of having the physical
symptom if you have the disease is 0.7.
The probability of having the symptom
without also having the disease is 0.01.
How likely is it that you are suffering from the
disease?
 Example

P(E) = P(E|H) x P(H) + P(E|H) x P(H)

P(E) = 0.7 x 0.002 + 0.01 x 0.998 = 0.01138

P(H|E) = P(E|H) x P(H)

P(E)
P(H|E) = 0.7 x 0.002 = 0.123
0.01138
Probability Distribution Models

Probability Distributions

Continuous Discrete