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RECAP Probability

Events, Sample Space and Probability


Some Probability Rules
Conditional probability
Events, sample Space and Probability
Definition : An experiment is an act or process of
observation generating well defined outcomes that leads to a
single outcome that cannot be predicted with certainty.
Ex.

Definition : A sample point is the most basic outcome of


the experiment
Tossing a coin: the sample points are
Rolling a die: the sample points are
Events, sample Space and Probability
Definition : The sample space for an experiment is the
collection of all experimental outcomes. It is usually denoted
by Ω.
Ex. Tossing a coin once, sample space Ω =
Rolling a die: Ω =
Tossing two coins at a time, sample space Ω = ?

Definition: An event is a specific collection of sample


points.
Ex: rolling a die Event of even numbers: A=
Events, sample Space and Probability
• Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that
an event will occur.
• The probability of an event A is calculated by summing the
probabilities of the sample points in the sample space for A.
Events, sample Space and Probability
An event can often be viewed as a composition of two or more
events: Such events are called compound events .

Definition : The union of 2 events A and B is the event that


occurs if either A or B or both occur on a single performance of
the experiment. This is denoted by AUB and it consists of all
sample points that belong to A B or both.

Definition : The intersection of 2 events A and B is the event that


both occur on a single performance of the experiment. This is denoted
by A∩B and it consists of all sample points both A and B.
5.1Events, sample Space and
Probability
Another concept is the notion of complementary events
Definition the complement of an event A is the event A that
does not occur. This is denoted by A’ or A

Example : Consider an experiment of tossing a die


2 events A={ toss an even number}
B={toss a number less than or equal to three}

1. Describe AUB and calculate P(AUB)


2. Describe A∩B and calculate P(A∩B).
3. Describe A , B ,
5.1Events, sample Space and
Probability
Example
Air Mauritius recently supplied the following information on
their flights from Mauritius.
Arrival Frequency
Early 100
On Time 800
Late 75
Canceled 25
Total 1000

1. List events
2. Assign probabilities to the events
3. What is the probability that a particular flight was late or
cancelled.
4. What is the probability that the flight was not on time.
Some Probability Rules
The Additive rule:
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)

Example Hospital records show that 12% of all patients are


admitted for
surgical treatment,16% for obstetrics and 2% receive both
obstetrics and surgical treatment. What is the probability that a
patient admitted to the hospital will have surgical or obstetric
treatment or both?
Some Probability Rules
Definition :
Events A and B are mutually exclusive if A∩B contains no
sample points that is A and B do not have any sample points in
common.
Additive rule for two mutually exclusive events:

P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
.
Conditional probability
Multiplicative Rule of probability:
P( A B)
P( A / B)   P( A B)  P( A / B) P( B)
P( B)
P( A B)
P( B / A)   P( A B)  P( B / A) P( A)
p( A)
where P( A / B) is the probability of A given that B has occurred.
and P ( B / A) the probability of B given that A has occurred.

P( A B)  P( A / B) P( B)  P( B / A) P( A)
Conditional probability
• Example
The Dean of a School of Business collected the following
information about undergraduate students in her college
Major Male Female Total
Accounting 170 110 280
Finance 120 100 220
Marketing 160 70 230
Management 150 120 270
Total 600 400 1000

Given that the student is a female, what is the probability


that she is an accounting major?
Conditional probability
Definition :
A and B are independent events if the occurrence of B does not
alter the probability that A has occurred that is P( A / B)  P( A)
and the occurrence of A does not alter the occurrence of B that is
P( B / A)  P( B)

Multiplicative rule for 2 independent events:


P( A B)  P( A) P( B)
Conditional probability
contingency tables:
Example : joint distribution of the students of a class
according to their gender and their smoking habit

Female Male Total

Smoker 8 22 30

Non smoker 40 50 90

Total 48 72 120
Conditional probability
1. What is the probability that a student chosen randomly is
a smoker?
2. What is the probability that a student is a smoker given
that she is a girl?
3. What is the probability that a student chosen randomly is
a male smoker?
4. What is the probability that a student is a smoker given
that he is a male?
5. Does smoking statistically depend on gender?