Sei sulla pagina 1di 26

Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Testing
Non statistical Hypothesis Testing…
• A criminal trial is an example of hypothesis testing without the statistics.
• In a trial a jury must decide between two hypotheses. The null hypothesis is
H0: The defendant is innocent

• The alternative hypothesis or research hypothesis is


H1: The defendant is guilty

• The jury does not know which hypothesis is true. They must make a decision on
the basis of evidence presented.

Hypothesis Testing 2
Non statistical Hypothesis Testing…
• In the language of statistics convicting the defendant is called rejecting the null
hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. That is, the jury is saying that
there is enough evidence to conclude that the defendant is guilty (i.e., there is
enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis).

• If the jury acquits it is stating that there is not enough evidence to support the
alternative hypothesis. Notice that the jury is not saying that the defendant is
innocent, only that there is not enough evidence to support the alternative
hypothesis. That is why we never say that we accept the null hypothesis,
although most people in industry will say “We accept the null hypothesis”

Hypothesis Testing 3
Concepts of Hypothesis Testing
• The two possible decisions that can be made:

Conclude that there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis


(also stated as: reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative)

Conclude that there is not enough evidence to support the alternative


hypothesis
(also stated as: failing to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative)
NOTE: we do not say that we accept the null hypothesis if a statistician is
around…

Hypothesis Testing 4
Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis
• The null hypothesis (H0) is a claim of “no difference in the population”
• The alternative hypothesis (Ha) claims “H0 is false”

• In the 1970s, 20–29 year old men in the Philippines had a mean μ body weight of
150 pounds. Standard deviation σ was 30 pounds. We test whether mean body
weight in the population now differs.

• Null hypothesis H0: μ = 150 (“no difference”)


• The alternative hypothesis can be either H1: μ > 150 ; H1: μ < 150 (one-sided test) or
H1: μ ≠ 150 (two-sided test)

Hypothesis Testing 5
Write the null and alternative hypotheses for the following
situations (in words and symbols)
1. A parents’ organization in a school is concerned about the proportion
of fat content of the burgers sold in the canteen. The canteen claims
that the proportion is only 18%, but some students believe that the fat
content is higher than that.
2. A maternity hospital claims that the mean birth weight of babies
delivered in their charity ward is 2.5 kg. But it is not what a group of
obstetrician believe.
3. A farmer believes that using organic fertilizers on his plants will yield
greater income. His average income from the past was Php 200
000.00 per year.
4. A company manufacturing RAM chips claims the defective rate of the
population is 5%.
Hypothesis Testing 6
Ho: The proportion of fat content of burgers sold in the canteen is not higher
18%.
Ho: p ≤ 18%
H1: The proportion of fat content of burgers sold in the canteen is higher than 18%.
H1: p > 18%

Ho: The mean birth weight of babies delivered in the charity ward is 2.5 kg.
Ho: μ = 2.5
H1: The mean birth weight of babies delivered in the charity ward is not 2.5 kg.
H1: μ ≠ 2.5
Ho: The average income of a farmer is 200 000.00.
Ho: μ = 200 000
H1: The average income of a farmer is higher than 200 000.00
H1: μ > 200 000

Ho: The defective rate of RAM chips manufactured is 5%.


Ho: p = 5%
H1: The defective rate of RAM chips manufactured is not 5%.
H1: p ≠ 5%
Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

• The Head of the P.E. Department of a certain high school


claims that the mean height of Grade 7 student is 163 cm. The
mean height of 45 randomly selected Grade 7 students is 161
cm. Using 0.01 significance level, can it be concluded that the
mean height of Grade 7 students is different from 163 cm as
claimed by the Head of the P.E. Department?

Hypothesis Testing 9
Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

• Last year the mean number of ladies’ bags product by CB Company


was 2,500 each day. This year, the manager claims that there is an
increase in the number of bags produced. A research who wants to
find out whether this is true counted the number of bags produced
each day for a period of one month. His computation resulted to a
mean 2,515 ladies’ bags. At 0.05 significance level, is there enough
evidence to conclude that the mean numbers of ladies’ bags produced
by GB Company is greater than 2500?

Hypothesis Testing 10
Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

• The manager of a TV Station claims that the mean number of


people watching their new reality show in Manila is 500,000
each day. A student researcher who wants statistical
evidence on this claim conducted her own survey. Her survey
resulted to a mean of 499,995. Using a 0.05 significance
level, can it be concluded that the mean number of people
watching the new reality show is less than 500,000?

Hypothesis Testing 11
Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

• The LB Company produces an average of 4% defective bulbs


each day. Recently, some of the machines were upgraded.
Out of the 400 bulbs randomly selected only 14 bulbs were
found defective. Does this suggest that there is a decrease in
the number of defective bulbs produced each day? Use 0.05
significance level.

Hypothesis Testing 12
The Null and Alternative Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, H0:
• States the assumption (numerical) to be tested
• Begin with the assumption that the null hypothesis is TRUE
• Always contains the ‘=’ sign

The alternative hypothesis, Ha:


• Is the opposite of the null hypothesis
• Challenges the status quo
• Never contains just the ‘=’ sign
• Is generally the hypothesis that is believed to be true by
the researcher

Hypothesis Testing 13
Write the null and alternative hypotheses for the following
situations (in words and symbols)
1. The net weight of a packet of snack brand is 130 grams. A sample of 80 packets
yielded a sample of mean of 112 grams with a sample standard deviation of 15
grams.

2. The average height of grade 8 female students is 158.2 cm. The mean height of a
sample of 100 students is 160 cm with a standard deviation of 6 cm.

Hypothesis Testing 14
Directional (left – tail or right tail) and Non – directional tests

A non – directional test is also called a two – tailed test.

A directional test may either be left – tailed or right tailed.

Hypothesis Testing 15
Take note!

• In the process of hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis initially is assumed to be


true.
• Data are gathered and examined to determine whether the evidence is strong
enough with respect to the alternative hypothesis to reject the assumption.
• In another words, the burden is placed on the researcher to show, using sample
information, that the null hypothesis is false.
• If the sample information is sufficient enough in favor of the alternative hypothesis,
then the null hypothesis is rejected. This is the same as saying if the persecutor has
enough evidence of guilt, the “innocence” is rejected.
• Of course, erroneous conclusions are possible, type I and
type II errors.

Hypothesis Testing 16
Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Actual Situation “Truth”


H0 True H0 False
Decision
Do Not
Reject H0

Rejct H0

Hypothesis Testing 17
Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Actual Situation “Truth”


H0 True H0 False
Decision
Do Not Incorrect Decision
Correct Decision
Reject H0 β
1-α

Rejct H0 Incorrect Decision Correct Decision


α 1-β

Hypothesis Testing 18
Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Actual Situation “Truth”


H0 True H0 False
Decision
Incorrect Decision
Do Not Correct Decision
Type II Error
Reject H0 1-α
β
Incorrect Decision Correct Decision
Rejct H0 Type I Error
1-β
α

Hypothesis Testing 19
Errors in Hypothesis Testing
Definition
Type I error occurs when a true null hypothesis is rejected. The value of α
represents the probability of committing this type of error; that is

α = P(H0 is rejected | H0 is true)

The v a l u e o f α represents the significance level of the test.

The lower significance level α, the less likely we are to commit a type I
error. Generally, we would like small values of α; typically, 0.05 or
smaller.

Hypothesis Testing 20
Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Definition
Type II error occurs when a false null hypothesis is rejected. The value of
β represents the probability of committing a Type II error; that is

β = P(H0 is not rejected | H0 is false)

The v a l u e o f 1 – β is called the power of the test. It represents the


probability of not making a Type II error.

Hypothesis Testing 21
Tails of a Test
• A two-tailed test has rejection regions in both tails;
• A left-tailed test has the rejection region in the left tail; and,
• A right-tailed test has the rejection region in the right tail of the
distribution curve.

Hypothesis Testing 22
Tails of a Test
Determine if each is case of a two-tailed, a left-tailed, or a right-tailed test.
1. In the 1970s, 20–29 year old men in the Philippines had a mean μ body weight
of 150 pounds. Standard deviation σ was 30 pounds. We test whether mean
body weight in the population now differs.
two-tailed
2. A parents’ organization in a school is concerned about the proportion of fat
content of the burgers sold in the canteen. The canteen claims that the
proportion is only 18%, but some students believe that the fat content is
higher than that.
right-tailed
3. A company claims that the mean amount of soda in all soft drink cans on the
average is 12 ounces. Suppose a consumer agency wants to test whether the
mean amount of soda per can is less than 12 ounces .
left-tailed
Hypothesis Testing 23
Tails of a Test
1. Write the null and alternative hypotheses for each of the following examples.
Determine if each is case of a two-tailed, a left-tailed, or a right-tailed test.
To test if the mean number of hours spent working per week by college
students who hold jobs is different from 20 hours
To test whether or not a bank’s ATM is out of service for an average of more
than 10 hours per month
To test if the mean length of experience of airport security guards is different
from 3 years
To test if the mean time a customer has to wait on the phone to speak to a
representative of a mail order company about unsatisfactory service is more
than 12 minutes
To test if the mean amount of money spent by all customers at a supermarket
is less than Php 3 500.00

Hypothesis Testing 24
Two – tailed(non – directional) and one – tailed(directional) tests

Non-rejection region
Represents
H0: μ = 12 a /2 a /2 critical value

H1: μ ≠ 12
Two-tail test 0

H0: μ ≤ 12 H1: a Rejection


μ > 12 region is
Upper-tail test 0 shaded

H0: μ ≥ 12
a
H1: μ < 12
Lower-tail test 0
Hypothesis Testing 25
Rejection and Nonrejection regions

Illustrate the rejection and nonrejection regions for each of the


following level of significance α.

1. two – tailed test at 5% level of significance


2. left – tailed test at 5% level of significance
3. right – tailed test 1% level of significance
4. two – tailed test at 10% level of significance

Hypothesis Testing 26