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Aug 14, 2019

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Hypothesis Testing

Non statistical Hypothesis Testing…

• A criminal trial is an example of hypothesis testing without the statistics.

• In a trial a jury must decide between two hypotheses. The null hypothesis is

H0: The defendant is innocent

H1: The defendant is guilty

• The jury does not know which hypothesis is true. They must make a decision on

the basis of evidence presented.

Hypothesis Testing 2

Non statistical Hypothesis Testing…

• In the language of statistics convicting the defendant is called rejecting the null

hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. That is, the jury is saying that

there is enough evidence to conclude that the defendant is guilty (i.e., there is

enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis).

• If the jury acquits it is stating that there is not enough evidence to support the

alternative hypothesis. Notice that the jury is not saying that the defendant is

innocent, only that there is not enough evidence to support the alternative

hypothesis. That is why we never say that we accept the null hypothesis,

although most people in industry will say “We accept the null hypothesis”

Hypothesis Testing 3

Concepts of Hypothesis Testing

• The two possible decisions that can be made:

(also stated as: reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative)

hypothesis

(also stated as: failing to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative)

NOTE: we do not say that we accept the null hypothesis if a statistician is

around…

Hypothesis Testing 4

Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

• The null hypothesis (H0) is a claim of “no difference in the population”

• The alternative hypothesis (Ha) claims “H0 is false”

• In the 1970s, 20–29 year old men in the Philippines had a mean μ body weight of

150 pounds. Standard deviation σ was 30 pounds. We test whether mean body

weight in the population now differs.

• The alternative hypothesis can be either H1: μ > 150 ; H1: μ < 150 (one-sided test) or

H1: μ ≠ 150 (two-sided test)

Hypothesis Testing 5

Write the null and alternative hypotheses for the following

situations (in words and symbols)

1. A parents’ organization in a school is concerned about the proportion

of fat content of the burgers sold in the canteen. The canteen claims

that the proportion is only 18%, but some students believe that the fat

content is higher than that.

2. A maternity hospital claims that the mean birth weight of babies

delivered in their charity ward is 2.5 kg. But it is not what a group of

obstetrician believe.

3. A farmer believes that using organic fertilizers on his plants will yield

greater income. His average income from the past was Php 200

000.00 per year.

4. A company manufacturing RAM chips claims the defective rate of the

population is 5%.

Hypothesis Testing 6

Ho: The proportion of fat content of burgers sold in the canteen is not higher

18%.

Ho: p ≤ 18%

H1: The proportion of fat content of burgers sold in the canteen is higher than 18%.

H1: p > 18%

Ho: The mean birth weight of babies delivered in the charity ward is 2.5 kg.

Ho: μ = 2.5

H1: The mean birth weight of babies delivered in the charity ward is not 2.5 kg.

H1: μ ≠ 2.5

Ho: The average income of a farmer is 200 000.00.

Ho: μ = 200 000

H1: The average income of a farmer is higher than 200 000.00

H1: μ > 200 000

Ho: p = 5%

H1: The defective rate of RAM chips manufactured is not 5%.

H1: p ≠ 5%

Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

claims that the mean height of Grade 7 student is 163 cm. The

mean height of 45 randomly selected Grade 7 students is 161

cm. Using 0.01 significance level, can it be concluded that the

mean height of Grade 7 students is different from 163 cm as

claimed by the Head of the P.E. Department?

Hypothesis Testing 9

Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

was 2,500 each day. This year, the manager claims that there is an

increase in the number of bags produced. A research who wants to

find out whether this is true counted the number of bags produced

each day for a period of one month. His computation resulted to a

mean 2,515 ladies’ bags. At 0.05 significance level, is there enough

evidence to conclude that the mean numbers of ladies’ bags produced

by GB Company is greater than 2500?

Hypothesis Testing 10

Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

people watching their new reality show in Manila is 500,000

each day. A student researcher who wants statistical

evidence on this claim conducted her own survey. Her survey

resulted to a mean of 499,995. Using a 0.05 significance

level, can it be concluded that the mean number of people

watching the new reality show is less than 500,000?

Hypothesis Testing 11

Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

each day. Recently, some of the machines were upgraded.

Out of the 400 bulbs randomly selected only 14 bulbs were

found defective. Does this suggest that there is a decrease in

the number of defective bulbs produced each day? Use 0.05

significance level.

Hypothesis Testing 12

The Null and Alternative Hypothesis

The null hypothesis, H0:

• States the assumption (numerical) to be tested

• Begin with the assumption that the null hypothesis is TRUE

• Always contains the ‘=’ sign

• Is the opposite of the null hypothesis

• Challenges the status quo

• Never contains just the ‘=’ sign

• Is generally the hypothesis that is believed to be true by

the researcher

Hypothesis Testing 13

Write the null and alternative hypotheses for the following

situations (in words and symbols)

1. The net weight of a packet of snack brand is 130 grams. A sample of 80 packets

yielded a sample of mean of 112 grams with a sample standard deviation of 15

grams.

2. The average height of grade 8 female students is 158.2 cm. The mean height of a

sample of 100 students is 160 cm with a standard deviation of 6 cm.

Hypothesis Testing 14

Directional (left – tail or right tail) and Non – directional tests

Hypothesis Testing 15

Take note!

true.

• Data are gathered and examined to determine whether the evidence is strong

enough with respect to the alternative hypothesis to reject the assumption.

• In another words, the burden is placed on the researcher to show, using sample

information, that the null hypothesis is false.

• If the sample information is sufficient enough in favor of the alternative hypothesis,

then the null hypothesis is rejected. This is the same as saying if the persecutor has

enough evidence of guilt, the “innocence” is rejected.

• Of course, erroneous conclusions are possible, type I and

type II errors.

Hypothesis Testing 16

Errors in Hypothesis Testing

H0 True H0 False

Decision

Do Not

Reject H0

Rejct H0

Hypothesis Testing 17

Errors in Hypothesis Testing

H0 True H0 False

Decision

Do Not Incorrect Decision

Correct Decision

Reject H0 β

1-α

α 1-β

Hypothesis Testing 18

Errors in Hypothesis Testing

H0 True H0 False

Decision

Incorrect Decision

Do Not Correct Decision

Type II Error

Reject H0 1-α

β

Incorrect Decision Correct Decision

Rejct H0 Type I Error

1-β

α

Hypothesis Testing 19

Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Definition

Type I error occurs when a true null hypothesis is rejected. The value of α

represents the probability of committing this type of error; that is

The lower significance level α, the less likely we are to commit a type I

error. Generally, we would like small values of α; typically, 0.05 or

smaller.

Hypothesis Testing 20

Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Definition

Type II error occurs when a false null hypothesis is rejected. The value of

β represents the probability of committing a Type II error; that is

probability of not making a Type II error.

Hypothesis Testing 21

Tails of a Test

• A two-tailed test has rejection regions in both tails;

• A left-tailed test has the rejection region in the left tail; and,

• A right-tailed test has the rejection region in the right tail of the

distribution curve.

Hypothesis Testing 22

Tails of a Test

Determine if each is case of a two-tailed, a left-tailed, or a right-tailed test.

1. In the 1970s, 20–29 year old men in the Philippines had a mean μ body weight

of 150 pounds. Standard deviation σ was 30 pounds. We test whether mean

body weight in the population now differs.

two-tailed

2. A parents’ organization in a school is concerned about the proportion of fat

content of the burgers sold in the canteen. The canteen claims that the

proportion is only 18%, but some students believe that the fat content is

higher than that.

right-tailed

3. A company claims that the mean amount of soda in all soft drink cans on the

average is 12 ounces. Suppose a consumer agency wants to test whether the

mean amount of soda per can is less than 12 ounces .

left-tailed

Hypothesis Testing 23

Tails of a Test

1. Write the null and alternative hypotheses for each of the following examples.

Determine if each is case of a two-tailed, a left-tailed, or a right-tailed test.

To test if the mean number of hours spent working per week by college

students who hold jobs is different from 20 hours

To test whether or not a bank’s ATM is out of service for an average of more

than 10 hours per month

To test if the mean length of experience of airport security guards is different

from 3 years

To test if the mean time a customer has to wait on the phone to speak to a

representative of a mail order company about unsatisfactory service is more

than 12 minutes

To test if the mean amount of money spent by all customers at a supermarket

is less than Php 3 500.00

Hypothesis Testing 24

Two – tailed(non – directional) and one – tailed(directional) tests

Non-rejection region

Represents

H0: μ = 12 a /2 a /2 critical value

H1: μ ≠ 12

Two-tail test 0

μ > 12 region is

Upper-tail test 0 shaded

H0: μ ≥ 12

a

H1: μ < 12

Lower-tail test 0

Hypothesis Testing 25

Rejection and Nonrejection regions

following level of significance α.

2. left – tailed test at 5% level of significance

3. right – tailed test 1% level of significance

4. two – tailed test at 10% level of significance

Hypothesis Testing 26

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