About ….

this Case
(Priya’s Probability)
Priya wants to pursue a career in management
She plans to take different management
entrance examination
After examination Priya is more confused about
B-School’s ranking
If we saw B-School’s ranking in business
newspaper, magazine and online portals .its
ranking was difference
So Priya saw current year ranking and previous
year ranking on basis of seven different
parameters.
 Cont……
Seven different parameters:-
1. Placement record of the last 3 years
2. Infrastructure : school and learning environment .
3. Faculty
4. Geographical Location : Proximity of B-Schools to
business hubs
5. Entrance exam applicable
6. Interaction with alumni
7. Interaction with Career Launchers, studying at these
B-school
 Central Theme of Case
In case priya is confused about B- School
ranking
So she does survey ..and found
B-School’s ranking:-
School Rank (survey) No Of School

Same Rank 8

Improvement Rank 23

Decline in their Ranking 22

 Bayes’ theorem
Bayes’ theorem:- In this theorem describes
the probability of occurrence of an event
related to any condition .
Formula :-

P(E1/A)= P(E1).P(A/E1)
 If Priya choose same rank B-school
• Same rank school =8 1. If Priya joining same rank of B – School
Improvement rank=23 then
decline rank = 22 by using bayes therom :-
Total school= (8+23+22) = 53
For :- P(E1/A) = 0.125*0.15/(0.15*0.125+O.043 * 0.433
Let same rank = A
Then p(E1) = 1/8 = 0.125 +0.045*0.415)
And P(A/E ) = 8/53 = 0.15
1

Again P(E1/A) =0.01875/(0.01875+0.018619+0.018675)

Improvement rank = B
Then P(E2) = 1/23 = 0.043 P(E1/A) =0.01875/0.224119
And P(B/E ) = 23/53 = 0.433
2

Again
Decline rank = C
P(E1/A) =O.0837
Then p(E ) = 1/22 = 0.045
3

And P(C/E3) = 22/53 = 0.415 The probability 0f joining B- School is 0.0837

 If Priya choose improvement rank B-
School
• Same rank school =8
Improvement rank=23 (2)..if priya choose improvement rank of B-School
decline rank = 22 Then
Total school= (8+23+22) = 53 By using Bayes’ therom
For :-
Let same rank = A
P(E2/B)=0.043*0.433/(0.15*0.125+O.043 *0.433 + 0.045 * 0.415)
Then p(E1) = 1/8 = 0.125
And P(A/E ) = 8/53 = 0.15
1

Again P(E2/B)= 0.018619/(0.01875+0.018619 +0.018675)

Improvement rank = B
Then P(E2) = 1/23 = 0.043 P(E2/B)= 0.018619/0.224119
And P(B/E ) = 23/53 = 0.433
2

Again P(E2/B)= 0.0830

Decline rank = C
Then p(E ) = 1/22 = 0.045
3
Thus probability of choose improvement ranking is
And P(C/E3) = 22/53 = 0.415
0.0830
SP JAIN is better then MDI (According to survey)
 If priya not joining MDI .if she joining
SP JAIN
• Same rank school =8 (3)..if priya not choose improvement rank of B-
Improvement rank=23
decline rank = 22
School (MDI)
Total school= (8+23+22) = 53 Then
For :- By using Bayes’ therom
Let same rank = A
Then p(E1) = 1/8 = 0.125 P(E2/B)=0.043*0.433/(0.15*0.125+O.043 *0.433 + 0.045 * 0.415)
And P(A/E ) = 8/53 = 0.15
1

Again P(E2/B)= 0.018619/(0.01875+0.018619 +0.018675)

Improvement rank = B
Then P(E2) = 1/23 = 0.043
P(E2/B)= 0.018619/0.224119
And P(B/E ) = 23/53 = 0.433
2

Again
Decline rank = C P(E2/B)= 0.0830
Then p(E ) = 1/22 = 0.045
3

And P(C/E3) = 22/53 = 0.415 Thus probability of choose improvement ranking is

0.0830
If she not joining MDI

Then probability is ( 1- 0.0830) = 0.9170

 If priya choose decline ranking of B-
school
• Same rank school =8 (4) If priya choose decline ranking of B-School
Improvement rank=23
decline rank = 22 By using Bayes therom
Total school= (8+23+22) = 53
For :- P(E2/C) = 0.045*0.415/(0.15*0.125+O.043 *0.433 + 0.045 * 0.415)
Let same rank = A
Then p(E1) = 1/8 = 0.125 P(E2/C) = 0.018675/(0.01875+0.018619 +0.018675)
And P(A/E ) = 8/53 = 0.15
1

Again P(E2/C) = 0.018675/0.224119

Improvement rank = B
Then P(E2) = 1/23 = 0.043 P(E2/C) = 0.0833
And P(B/E ) = 23/53 = 0.433
2

Again
Decline rank = C
Thus the probability of chosen decline ranking is
Then p(E ) = 1/22 = 0.045
3
0.0833
And P(C/E3) = 22/53 = 0.415 So priya wanted to join NITIE
 If priya joining TISS ,not joining NITIE
• Same rank school =8
(5) If priya not join in NITIE
Improvement rank=23
decline rank = 22 By using Bayes therom
Total school= (8+23+22) = 53
For :- P(E2/C) = 0.045*0.415/(0.15*0.125+O.043 *0.433 + 0.045 * 0.415)
Let same rank = A
Then p(E1) = 1/8 = 0.125 P(E2/C) = 0.018675/(0.01875+0.018619 +0.018675)
And P(A/E ) = 8/53 = 0.15
1

Again P(E2/C) = 0.018675/0.224119

Improvement rank = B
Then P(E2) = 1/23 = 0.043
P(E2/C) = 0.0833
And P(B/E ) = 23/53 = 0.433
2

Again
Decline rank = C Thus the probability of NITIE is 0.0833
Then p(E ) = 1/22 = 0.045
3

And P(C/E3) = 22/53 = 0.415 So probability of TISS is (1-0.0833) = 0.9167