Lecture Strategic Approaches To IR

Strategic Approaches to International
Relations
1 - War: Causation of War, Total War, limited

War, Asymmetric War, Civil War, Guerrilla War.
2 - Strategic Culture: Determinants of
Strategic Culture of Pakistan .
3 - Deterrence: Theory and Practice with
Special reference Nuclear India and Pakistan.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Why do states go for war?
Elements push states to the war
 Interest
 Fear
 Honor
Causes of War
 Kenneth Waltz provides three level of analysis to
explain the causes of War.
1- The Individual.
 Its about psycho-cognitive behaviour of an
individual.
 Sometimes leaders are aggressive.
 Some are irrational.

2 – State/Society
 When a society has domestic issues: poor
economy, ethnic divisions, political
inconsistencies, and dictatorship, rulers divert
the attention of the masses by going into war.
Rulers do it for two reasons;
1. Greater Internal cohesion
2. Prolong rule.
Examples: Iran Vs. Israel and North Korea Vs.
USA
 “War is less likely where population is cohesive
and prosperous”, Plato
 Leaders find no reason to divert the attention of

the dissatisfied masses to external enemy.
3 - International System
 Anarchic Int. System.
 Insecurity and mistrust about others.
 National Interest brings nations into clash.
Why did Iraq invade Kuwait in 1990?
Iraq/Kuwait war 1990: Causes?
 Saddam was a dictator and aggressor. (Indi)
 He miscalculated, no one will come to rescue. (Indi)
 Iraq invaded for its own national interest. (State)
 Historic claims of territory. (State)
 Iraq had ambitions for regional domination – Iraq

war was just the start. (Inter)
Why N.K and US drew close to a war?
 Dictatorship in N. Korea
 N. K externalises the poor economic conditions.
 To avoid democracy debate.
 US a super power that does not want instability

as global leader.
Total war
 Objectives: Social and Economic.
 Parties are willing to make any sacrifice for a

complete victory.
 Use every weapon in their arsenal to break human

will.
 “Wars cannot be fought by laws”, Clausewitz
 Examples: WWI and WWII best examples.

Limited Wars
 Objectives: Political.
 Fought for political gains without causing harm to

civil infrastructure.
 Limited weaponry is used for limited political

objective.
 Example: Gulf War 1990-1991 and US

involvement
Civil Wars
 Wars between the factions within a state over;

1. Control of territory,
2. Control of Capital,
3. Toppling govt.,
4. Establishment of govt.
 Ethno-nationalistic movements fight for
1. Greater autonomy
2. Independence
 Examples: American civil wars (1861-65) Russian
civil wars (1917-1922), Afghanistan in 1990s.
Proxy War
 War fought by third parties rather than by the

enemy states themselves.
 Many conflicts during the Cold War, such as the

Korean War, Vietnam War, and Afghanistan
War.
 Proxy wars between the USA & Soviet Union,

neither of which wanted to fight each other
directly.
Asymmetric Warfare
“War between parties of unequal strength”.
 Weak party uses non unconventional war tactics

against the powerful enemy.
 Victory does not always go to the militarily superior

force. (US lost in Vietnam, USSR lost in Afghanistan).
 The weaker party seeks to reduce opponent’s

strength.
Guerrilla warfare
 A strategy of asymmetrical warfare, where weaker
party often utilizes population to supply like food
shelter and intelligence.
 Hit-and-run tactic – inflicting causalities repeatedly.
 Weaker side Avoid direct confrontation and

exhaust other.
Examples: Kashmiris vs Indians, Mujahedeen vs
Soviets.
Other Wars …
 War for dominance – cold war b/w USA Vs.

USSR.
 Ideological war – cold war, thirty years war, KSA

Iran war.
Strategic Culture:
Determinants of Strategic
Culture of Pakistan.
Definition
 “Strategic culture is a set of beliefs, norms,
values, and historical experiences of the
elite that influences its understanding and
interpretation of security issues and shapes its
responses to the theats.” (Rizvi)
 It serves as a screen through which the

policymakers view the external security
environment, and take policy decisions.
Pakistan’s Strategic Culture

 Pakistan is one of the least secure countries on
the planet.
 It spends heavily on defence. Why?
 Pakistan has one of the world's largest and best

equipped armed forces with growing arsenal of
nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
 Sources of its insecurity is deeply rooted in the

past.
Pakistan’s roots of insecurity
 Indo-Pak enmity since 1947 partition.
 Four million Hindus and Sikhs migrated to India.
 Six million Muslims migrated to Pakistan.
 Over one million migrants were slaughtered.
 Pakistanis feared - India would reject the “two-

nation theory” - the logic behind partition.
 Dhaka Fall with Indian support - 1971, deepened
threat perception of Pakistan that New Delhi wanted
to re-unify India;
 Or at least reduce Pakistan to the level of Bhutan &
Maldives etc.
 Kashmir dispute,
 Durand Line and Pashtunistan issue.
 Afghanistan with the backing of India posed a threat

to Pakistan.
Key Determinants of Pak's Str. Culture
Opposition
Irredentism
to Indian
of Afghanistan
Hegemony
Islam
(1) Opposition to Indian Hegemony.
In Oct 1944 and Nov 1946, QA MA Jinnah said – India
and Pakistan should proclaim a Monroe Doctrine of
their own for the defense of the subcontinent.
“We join together as good friends and neighbours
and say to the world, Hands off India”.
 Three developments changed the perspective of

Pakistani leaders towards India.
 First, the communal riots that killed 1.2 million people

and massive influx of refugees shocked them.
 Second, disputes over the distribution of civil &
military assets.
 Third, the dispute over the accession of Junagadh
and Jammu/Kashmir caused further bitterness.
 Pakistan’s civilian military leadership has been
apprehensive about Indian hegemonic designs in
South Asia.
 This is unstated goal of India since days of Nehru.
 Indian leaders emphasized India’s commanding role
in a more forceful manner after 1971.
(2) Irredentism of Afghanistan
 Afghanistan’s irredentist claims on Pakistan’s
territory intensified insecurity of Pakistan.
 In 1947 it laid claim on KP and parts of Balochistan.
 It opposed Pakistan’s entry into the UNO.
 Border clashes between the two countries in the
1950s and the 1960s - diplomatic relations were
severed twice, in 1955 and 1962.
 Afghanistan was supported by India and Soviet
Union in1950s.
 Two front war was perceived by the security elite of
Pakistan.
(3) Role of Islam in SC of Pakistan.
 Islam is integral to Pakistan’s SC - it contributes in
shaping societal character and the thinking of the
policy makers.
 Islam is closely associated - “Islamic Republic of
Pakistan”.
 No law can be enacted that violates the basic
principles and teachings of Islam.
 All political parties recognize the centrality of Islam.
 Education sector at all levels covers Islamic studies.
 The historical narratives highlight the advent of Islam in
India, glorify Muslim rule & define Pakistani identity
with reference to Islam and the Muslim rule.

 Islamic orientations and vocabulary is used to keep
soldiers motivated – Shaheed, Jihad-e-fi-sabilillah, and
ghazi etc.
 This reliance on Islam was exploited by state and non-

state-actors;
 Zia’s Islamization in the past and contemporary

religious and sectarian militancy.
National Security Policy guidelines
These determinants and sources of insecurity shaped

the worldview of security elite towards regional
and int issues with following policy options;
 Strengthening of security against India by assigning

the highest priority to defense needs.
 Optimism about Military capabilities.
 Alliance with the super power.

1 Acquire Nuclear Capability for Deterrence
 Pakistan has waged a determined campaign to

acquire an deterrent ever since 1971.
 After acquisition of Nuclear capability Pakistan has

cautiously developed its missile technology as Indian
military might continue to grow.
 Deterrence is built on a strong conventional and

nuclear capability and demonstration of its
willingness to run high risks and pay high costs to
deter aggression.
2 Foreign financial Aid
Against Indian economic capability;
 Pakistan could not develop its own indigenous

resources.
 Therefore, it had to rely on US financial

assistance.
 Unfortunately, that reliance turned Pakistan an aid

addict country and vulnerable to US demands.
3 Stability on Pakistan’s Western Borders
 Keep India away from Afghanistan.
 Contain Taliban or any other group with religious

militant tendencies.
 To check the Influx of refugees, drugs trafficking,

and organized criminal networks.
 Have friendly or at least neutral Afghanistan.

4 Identification with Muslim issues;
 Two nation theory that brought Pakistan into

being - plays an important role in shaping national
identity and foreign policy.
 After independence, Muslim nationalism

became a nationalist ideology.
 Islam guides Pakistan to support Muslim causes all

over the World. (Palestine, Chechnya, Rohingya)
Conclusion:
 Acute insecurity developed in the early years of Pak. due to

troubled relations with India and Afghanistan.
 Indo-Pak trust deficit is the result of historical narratives of

the pre independence period and the troubled bilateral
relations in the post-independence period.
 Pak will not accept Indian hegemony in South Asia.
 Ironically, a close nexus between Islam and strategic thinking

has resulted religious & sectarian militancy in Pakistan.
Deterrence: Theory and
Practice with Special
reference Nuclear India and
Pakistan
Two Perspective about Nuclear Weapons;
“The unleashed power of the atom has changed

everything, and we thus drift toward unparalleled
catastrophe”.
Albert Einstein 1946.
“Nuclear deterrence will produce stability, and safety

will be the strong child of terror, and survival will be
the twin brother of annihilation.”
Winston Churchill, 1955.
Deterrence Defined;
 “An effort by P to dissuade I from undertaking an
attack/action against the interests of P by
threatening I that the costs of doing so will
outweigh what I hopes to gain thereby”.
Alexander George
 “Deterrence is an attempt by P to prevent I from an

attack on P, in response P threatens to inflict
unacceptable damages upon I in the event that the
attack is undertaken.” Phil Williams
 Simply “dissuasion by means of threat”.
 The term deterrence with French roots means “to

frighten from”.
 The most developed form of the deterrence came in

Nuclear era after 1940s.
 Defining feature od deterrence is threat of

punishment.
Deterrence in Nuclear Era
 The idea was articulated by Bernard Brodie in 1946;
 “The chief purpose of our military establishment has

been to win wars, from now on its purpose would be to
avert them”.
Nuclear Weapons’ effects on state-to-state relations;
 First, nuclear weapons provide the nuclear State with

an “infrangible guarantee of its independence and
physical integrity”.
Deterrence in Nuclear Era
 Second, mutual deterrence among enemy

nuclear States places limits on violence and in
turn acts as a brake on total war.
 Third, by altering the „offence-defence‟

balance in favour of defence, nuclear weapons
have made it possible for weaker States to defend
themselves effectively against larger power
countries.
Components of Deterrence
 1 Capability
 2 The intention to employ it
 3 The ability to communicate both capability and

resolve.
Deterrence Effects
If you wish to measure – how effectively deterrence

works, one can measure capability & intent and find
the answer.
Estimated Cap x Estimated Intent = Deterrence

Effect
Steps in Deterrence
 Evaluate interests at the stake (e.g. Pak India)
 Convey commitment to defend those interests
 Back commitments by threats to respond if the

opponent acts.
 Make such threats appear credible and

sufficient in the eyes of the opponent.
How is it different from defence?
 Defence - is the ability to defend oneself against

an act of aggression.
 Deterrence is the ability to persuade the

adversary from committing an act of aggression.
 Defence starts when deterrence fails.
 Deterrence is based on the threat of retaliation

with force to inflict unacceptable damage.
Assumptions of Deterrence Theory
 Decisions of defender and challenger will be

rationally calculated.
 Threat of Nukes prevent the aggression.
 Both defender and offender place their security at

the top.
 Both have strong communication.

Nuclear Deterrence in Indo-Pak case …
 India - Pak protect their strategic autonomy and

nuclear weapons capability.
 India and Pakistan rejected UN Resolution

1172 which urges India and Pakistan, to become
party to NPT and CTBT.
 India and Pakistan are responsible and sane in

terms of nuclear deterrence – the way USSR &
USA behaved.
Conclusion:
Negative View;
 Indo - Pak nuclearization has not deterred 1999 Kargil,
and 2001-2002 stand off….
 Possibility of Indian surgical strikes inside Pakistan in the
aftermath of the Mumbai 2008 & Uri attacks 2016.
Positive View;
 Nuclear deterrence has successfully prevented war.
 Kargil was not a war between two states.
 Indo – Pak agree on nuclear risk-reduction measures, e.g.
non-attack on each other’s nuclear installations &
Missile Test/military exercise notifications.
Questions ..
 What is the role of nuclear weapons in 21st

century politics and how effectively nuclear
deterrence has averted war between India and
Pakistan since 1998?

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Strategic Approaches to International

1 - War: Causation of War, Total War, limited

 Sometimes leaders are aggressive.

 Some are irrational.

 Leaders find no reason to divert the attention of

 Anarchic Int. System.

 Insecurity and mistrust about others.

 National Interest brings nations into clash.

 He miscalculated, no one will come to rescue. (Indi)

 Iraq invaded for its own national interest. (State)

 Historic claims of territory. (State)

 Iraq had ambitions for regional domination – Iraq

 N. K externalises the poor economic conditions.

 To avoid democracy debate.

 US a super power that does not want instability

 Parties are willing to make any sacrifice for a

 Use every weapon in their arsenal to break human

 “Wars cannot be fought by laws”, Clausewitz

 Examples: WWI and WWII best examples.

 Fought for political gains without causing harm to

 Limited weaponry is used for limited political

 Example: Gulf War 1990-1991 and US

 Wars between the factions within a state over;

 War fought by third parties rather than by the

 Many conflicts during the Cold War, such as the

 Proxy wars between the USA & Soviet Union,

“War between parties of unequal strength”.

 Weak party uses non unconventional war tactics

 Victory does not always go to the militarily superior

 The weaker party seeks to reduce opponent’s

 Hit-and-run tactic – inflicting causalities repeatedly.

 Weaker side Avoid direct confrontation and

 War for dominance – cold war b/w USA Vs.

 Ideological war – cold war, thirty years war, KSA

 It serves as a screen through which the

 Pakistan has one of the world's largest and best

 Sources of its insecurity is deeply rooted in the

 Indo-Pak enmity since 1947 partition.

 Four million Hindus and Sikhs migrated to India.

 Six million Muslims migrated to Pakistan.

 Over one million migrants were slaughtered.

 Pakistanis feared - India would reject the “two-

 Durand Line and Pashtunistan issue.

 Afghanistan with the backing of India posed a threat

 Three developments changed the perspective of

 First, the communal riots that killed 1.2 million people

with reference to Islam and the Muslim rule.

 This reliance on Islam was exploited by state and non-

 Zia’s Islamization in the past and contemporary

These determinants and sources of insecurity shaped

 Strengthening of security against India by assigning

 Optimism about Military capabilities.

 Alliance with the super power.

 Pakistan has waged a determined campaign to

 After acquisition of Nuclear capability Pakistan has

 Deterrence is built on a strong conventional and

Against Indian economic capability;

 Pakistan could not develop its own indigenous

 Therefore, it had to rely on US financial

 Unfortunately, that reliance turned Pakistan an aid

 Keep India away from Afghanistan.

 Contain Taliban or any other group with religious

 To check the Influx of refugees, drugs trafficking,