OSC Business Case for Robi, Bangladesh

14th Sept, 2012

1 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Agenda

• Robi’s Growth Objective

 How can we help you in achieving the target?

• Trial Observations
 Did OSC-HR really deliver as per the promise?

• OSC-HR Business Case

 Phase-1 (Rolling-out at top ~10% high traffic cells)
 Phase-2 (Selective deployment up to top ~30% high traffic cells)
 Phase-3 (Nation-wide deployment at ~70% cells)

• Conclusions
 Immediate revenue boost with a positive overall TVO

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Robi’s Growth Objective – How can we help you in achieving the target?

3 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Robi expects steady growth in traffic and subscriber base

GSM Subscribers GSM Traffic

25 1,000 450,000
Millions

900 400,000
20 800 350,000
700 300,000
15 600
250,000

Mbps
subs

Erl
500
200,000
10 400
300 150,000
5 200 100,000
100 50,000
0 0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2G subscribers Data traffic @ voice BH Voice traffic @ voice BH

• Anticipated growth will require considerable investment in new infrastructure over next 5 years
 Additional 835 sites will necessarily be rolled out taking sites count to 3614
 Total number of TRX in the network will be 72,033 – more than 66% increase over the present count of 43,218
• However, Robi is planning to roll-out only ~120 sites each year

4 © Nokia Siemens Networks

OSC-HR is the answer to grow most cost effectively

Without OSC
Cumulative BTS Count Cumulative TRX Count & Reduction %
Without OSC
4000 80000
NSN OSC NSN OSC
3500 Robi's Roll-out Plan ~10% 70000 Percentage Savings
14%
3000 60000
13%
13%
2500 50000
12%
11%
2000 40000

1500 30000 No need of

TRX addition
1000 20000

500 10000

0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

• Planned roll-out of ~120 sites a year will fall well short of the actual capacity required 
• However, OSC-HR will allow Robi to cope with growth within the planned roll-out budget
 There could be a potential savings of ~10% in terms of sites and ~14% in terms of TRX count
 Overall TRX count in the network can be kept flat during the first two years of deployment
 On top of potential reduction in CAPEX, OSC-HR would help to realize additional Revenue streams immediately

Assumption: OSC-HR deployment across ~70% cells

5 © Nokia Siemens Networks
NSN’s unique OSC-HR solution – How does it work?
AMR HR OSC-HR
Half Rate voice codec Dual Half Rate voice codes
Network with improved
spectral efficiency

Network Quality
De/Multiplexing Today’s
OSC0 Network
OSC1

2 users per TSL 4 users per TSL Network Capacity

• OSC-HR introduces the concept of Dual Half Rate

• Dual Half Rate allows multiplexing of four AMR-HR users to one Timeslot
• QPSK in DL formed from Orthogonal Subchannels pairs(OSC0,OSC1)
• Every SAIC (DARP Phase 1) GSM handset supports OSC-HR
• Double AMR-HR capacity with AMR-HR like quality

6 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Trial Observations - Did OSC-HR really deliver as per the promise?

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Potential soft-capacity gain from OSC-HR
Benefit of OSC-HR to Robi Calculation of OSC Gain:
would come from the soft- OSC Capacity Gain = DHR Utilization / (2 – DHR Utilization)
capacity gain on existing sites
Where,
Cell area where DHR Utilization = AMR-HR Capable Mobile % * SAIC Penetration % * OSC
OSC-HR calls are Usable Area %
not supported
De-multiplexing DHR (Dual Half Rate)

AMR-HR Capable Mobile 80%

Limited cell area SAIC penetration 61% (slide 19)
where OSC-HR OSC Usable area 62% (slide 20)
calls can be
supported Cell
range Potential Capacity Gain in Robi Network with OSC is ~18%

Multiplexing

In urban areas, where coverage limitation does Supported by OSC trial observations
not typically exist, OSC-HR radius could be up
to 100% of cell dominance area
8 © Nokia Siemens Networks
Actual Trial observations from Robi Network
OSC-HR Impact on BSC Peak Traffic
Sum of Peak Traffic (Erl)_ After OSC Sum of Peak Traffic (Erl)_ Before OSC Peak Traffic Growth (%)
6000 35.0%

30.0%
5000

25.0%
4000

20.0%
Erl

3000
15.0%

2000
10.0%

1000
5.0%

0 0.0% Highest OSC-HR penetration of a cell within a BSC

CBN06 CBN07 CBN17 CBN30 CBN31 CBN35 CBN40 CBN45 CBN58 CBN60 CBN62 DBN22 DBN27 DBN52 DBN54

BSCs

• Despite several dependencies for OSC-HR, like,

AMR-HR usage %, SAIC penetration % and RF
Condition (RxLevel -47dBm to -95dBm, RxQual 0-4 )
 Cell level OSC-HR traffic during trial was as high as ~30%
 OSC-HR activated cells showed
 significant boost in Peak Traffic (Erl)
 carried considerable PS traffic on top of CS_Voice

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OSC-HR can boost traffic and stop revenue loss
Miler_Matha (8/8/8 TRX), Only Sec-2 OSC-HR activated Nandiapara_GP (4/4/4 TRX), Only Sec-1 OSC-HR activated

Blocking vs Traffic Blocking Vs Traffic

10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7

% of Blocking
% of Blocking

6 6
5 5
4 Traffic Boost 4
Traffic Boost Traffic Boost
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
TCH Traffic (Erl) TCH Traffic (Erl.)

%TCH Blocking_Pre OSC %TCH Blocking_Post OSC %TCH Blocking_Pre OSC %TCH Blocking_Post OSC

• Though OSC-HR would not necessarily generate calls, however, can help to cope with higher demand
 Cell level overall traffic boost due to OSC-HR implementation could be as high as ~20%
 OSC-HR will significantly reduce potential revenue loss due to blocking
 Cells with high blocking would benefit immediately from the soft capacity gain
 Even selective deployment of OSC-HR could have network wide positive impact

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OSC-HR Business Case

11 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Business Case for OSC-HR

Coping with growth

and maximizing the
revenue potential

a) Expand existing sites with more
TRX capacity
b) In case max capacity is reached,
new capacity sites will have to be
acquired and built
The benefit of deploying OSC-HR will
be realized from savings in CAPEX +
IMPLEX + OPEX due to less TRX
expansion and rolling out of fewer
new sites in addition to capturing
additional traffic immediately

12 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Robi Business Case Parameters
• Value Assumptions
 Growth in traffic due to incremental usage and additional subscribers
 Increased Revenue potential from increased traffic and nominal change in ARPU
 Savings in CAPEX and OPEX to come from less HW resources in the network
• Key Inputs
 Timeline: 5 years 2012  2016
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GSM subscribers Millions 12.9 14.9 16.8 18.5 20.8
Monthly voice usage mins 220 213 205 198 190
Voice capacity mErl 22 21 21 20 19
Monthly data usage MB/month 4.0 5.5 7.0 8.5 10.0

 General Assumptions
Currency USD
Taxrate 15%
CAPEX depreciation time 8 years
WACC 14.5%

13 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Let’s deploy in a phased manner – 10% - 30% - 70%

Without OSC
Cumulative BTS Count Cumulative TRX Count & Reduction %
4000 Without OSC
80000
NSN OSC
NSN OSC
3500 Robi's Roll-out Plan ~10%
70000 Percentage Savings
14%
3000 60000
13%
13%
2500 50000
5%
2000
2%
40000

1500 30000

1000 20000

500 10% 30% 70% 10000 10% 30% 70%

0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

• Initial deployment of 10%-30% during the first two years would allow for immediate cashing-in of
OSC-HR soft capacity benefits in high-load areas
• However, by the 3rd year i.e. 2014 must catch-up with activation shortfall to cope with the growth
• By the third year of operation, technical bottlenecks (eg. lack of E1 capacity) should be sorted out
for more extensive deployment of OSC-HR

14 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Value of OSC is driven by significant reduction in OPEX
Cash Flow Analysis Total Value of Ownership
30,000
25,000
Revenue,
20,000 15.61
15,000 CAPEX, 3.23
k USD

10,000
OPEX, 8.74
5,000
CoS, 0.00
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-5,000

Revenue CAPEX OPEX 0 5 10 15 20

Cost of Sales CCF DCCF M USD

• OSC-HR Business Case for Robi will have immediate positive impact on overall cash flow situation
 The potential from immediate increase of moderate 1.5% traffic leads to capturing an additional Revenue of
15.6 Million USD during the first two years
 The value of OSC will primarily be driven by considerable OPEX savings due to reduction in deployed HW
 Total Value of Ownership (TVO)  Net Savings (CAPEX 3.23 + OPEX 8.74) = 12 Million USD

 ASW licensing cost for OSC-HR  US $666 / TRX

15 © Nokia Siemens Networks
Conclusion - Immediate revenue boost with a positive overall TVO

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Summary of OSC-HR benefits

• OSC-HR as a soft capacity feature can absorb additional traffic when there is demand
• As a soft capacity feature, OSC-HR would always help in easing off blocking, provided radio
condition supports adequate level of OSC-HR triggering
• The potential savings from CAPEX + IMPLEX + OPEX due to less HW infrastructure will
offset the licensing cost of OSC-HR in addition to immediate revenue boost
• Additional future savings in CAPEX & OPEX over five years is justifying using OSC-HR extensively
• Less TRX to cope with growth would limit interference in the network, thus ensuring better quality
• OSC-HR usage would release some time slots for improving PS traffic throughput and speed
• On special occasions, like Eid, OSC-HR could be of huge benefit to Robi capturing
additional revenue at no extra cost by significantly reducing blocking
• If aggressive customer acquisition efforts are made, the network will be ready to absorb additional
traffic demand (both voice and data) using OSC-HR

17 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Conclusion

OSC-HR from NSN will always pay for itself,

with long term cost savings and
immediate revenue boost

18 © Nokia Siemens Networks

Back-up

19 © Nokia Siemens Networks

SAIC Penetration
Measurement in BSCs on May 22

• Measurements in 2 BSCs in May 2012 shows SAIC penetration of ~61%

Time 2G Network
TCH_RESERV_BY_SAIC_MS
tch_request
SAIC
(Traffic)
(%)
(Mscapab)
Time 2G Network
TCH_RESERV_BY_SAIC_MS
tch_request
SAIC
(Traffic)
(%)
(Mscapab)
23.05.12 18:00 CBN62 554436 889328 62.3 23.05.12 18:00 CBN25 224294 357408 62.8
23.05.12 19:00 CBN62 749883 1229453 61.0 23.05.12 19:00 CBN25 303903 494731 61.4
23.05.12 20:00 CBN62 755816 1259139 60.0 23.05.12 20:00 CBN25 285006 468268 60.9
23.05.12 21:00 CBN62 748630 1267557 59.1 23.05.12 21:00 CBN25 277759 457389 60.7
23.05.12 22:00 CBN62 671933 1144550 58.7 23.05.12 22:00 CBN25 228136 372441 61.3
23.05.12 23:00 CBN62 464020 768613 60.4 23.05.12 23:00 CBN25 131571 212310 62.0
24.05.12 00:00 CBN62 292323 471639 62.0 24.05.12 00:00 CBN25 69017 111325 62.0
24.05.12 01:00 CBN62 124973 197334 63.3 24.05.12 01:00 CBN25 29258 46393 63.1
24.05.12 02:00 CBN62 49246 77021 63.9 24.05.12 02:00 CBN25 16285 25800 63.1
24.05.12 03:00 CBN62 22965 36521 62.9 24.05.12 03:00 CBN25 9820 14939 65.7
24.05.12 04:00 CBN62 18685 30715 60.8 24.05.12 04:00 CBN25 11997 18639 64.4
24.05.12 05:00 CBN62 37763 64418 58.6 24.05.12 05:00 CBN25 26917 43380 62.0
24.05.12 06:00 CBN62 87500 152872 57.2 24.05.12 06:00 CBN25 71314 116927 61.0
24.05.12 07:00 CBN62 194534 335645 58.0 24.05.12 07:00 CBN25 140089 229094 61.1
24.05.12 08:00 CBN62 311249 510310 61.0 24.05.12 08:00 CBN25 206731 333472 62.0
24.05.12 09:00 CBN62 464294 738748 62.8 24.05.12 09:00 CBN25 254563 404493 62.9
24.05.12 10:00 CBN62 573346 915172 62.6 24.05.12 10:00 CBN25 264983 422436 62.7
24.05.12 11:00 CBN62 594893 948994 62.7 24.05.12 11:00 CBN25 266302 428024 62.2
24.05.12 12:00 CBN62 481067 919142 52.3 24.05.12 12:00 CBN25 219738 402866 54.5
24.05.12 13:00 CBN62 587974 971149 60.5 24.05.12 13:00 CBN25 213499 340986 62.6
Average 60.5 Average 61.9

20 © Nokia Siemens Networks

SAIC Penetration
Measurement in BSCs

Channel Samples Samples )%

C/ I > 12 dB ( Good Quality

0 dB<= C/ I <= 12 dB ( Co

C/ I < 0 dB ( Adj Channel

conditions vs. average)

Scaling (assumed BH

OSC Usable Area

Samples )%

Samples )%
BSC Name
Sl No
• RX Level Measurement from each 1 CBN06 26.81 6.42 66.77 90% 60.1
BSC taken in May for calculation 2 CBN07 25.87 6.27 67.85 90% 61.1
3 CBN08 26.66 5.29 68.06 90% 61.3
of OSC Usable area 4 CBN12 26.52 5.37 68.11 90% 61.3

• Result show OSC Usable Area to 5

6
CBN15
CBN17
25.73
26.52
5.61
5.84
68.66
67.64
90%
90%
61.8
60.9
be ~62% depending on BSC 7 CBN25 26.70 5.56 67.74 90% 61.0
8 CBN30 28.78 6.35 64.87 90% 58.4
16 CBN31 23.50 4.02 72.48 90% 65.2
17 CBN33 27.38 5.51 67.11 90% 60.4
15 CBN34 26.95 5.37 67.69 90% 60.9
18 CBN35 24.52 5.02 70.46 90% 63.4
19 CBN40 28.64 6.01 65.35 90% 58.8
20 CBN44 23.85 4.38 71.77 90% 64.6
21 CBN45 26.72 5.90 67.38 90% 60.6
9 CBN55 27.43 5.49 67.08 90% 60.4
10 CBN56 25.80 5.20 69.00 90% 62.1
11 CBN57 26.81 5.40 67.80 90% 61.0
12 CBN58 25.85 5.00 69.15 90% 62.2
22 CBN60 25.01 4.99 70.01 90% 63.0
13 CBN61 26.39 5.21 68.40 90% 61.6
14 CBN62 27.23 6.29 66.48 90% 59.8
23 CBN64 25.40 5.13 69.47 90% 62.5
24 DBN22 20.51 3.16 76.33 90% 68.7
25 DBN27 25.85 5.11 69.04 90% 62.1
26 DBN43 25.08 4.29 70.63 90% 63.6
27 DBN52 25.14 4.26 70.59 90% 63.5
28 DBN54 24.09 5.20 70.71 90% 63.6
21 © Nokia Siemens Networks
 Scenario-1: Cell Busy Hour KPI Comparison: Nandon Kanon_3 (C07467C)

Peak traffic comparison (Before-after OSC implementation)

Total Available Attempted OSC % of TCH
Segment %TCH % of OSC Traffic
Date Time Traffic TCH in a TCH Seizures implementati Blocking
Name Blocking Traffic gain (%)
(Erlang) cell for call on date reduction
07.18.2012 21:00 C07467C 36.28 113.92 58 4451 25-Jul-12
08.20.2012 10:00 C07467C 3.09 150.14 58 5594 25-Jul-12 58.14 31.79 91.48

CS Traffic has increased by 31.79%. [Traffic gain=(max traffic after-max traffic before)/max traffic before*100%)]
Maximum TCH Traffic hit up to 150.14 Erl with 58 available TCH, whereas without OSC and considering 100% HR with 116 trunks can offer theoretical
116 Erl maximum.
TCH blocking has reduced by 91.48%.
OSC Traffic penetration reached up to 74.61% at cell busy hour
PS traffic has increased by 95%. [PS Traffic gain=(average PS traffic after-average PS traffic before)/average PS traffic before*100%)]
22 © Nokia Siemens Networks
Scenario-2: Cell Busy Hour KPI Comparison: Kalakachua_3 (D27802C)

Attempted CELL <-90dBm & DL Qual0-4 (2- <-90dBm & UL Qual0-4 (2-
Total Available OSC
Segment %TCH TCH % of OSC Site Name
Date Time Traffic TCH in a implement NAME 4th July) 4th July)
Name Blocking Seizures Traffic
(Erlang) cell ation date
for call Kalakachua_3 D27802C 81.77 53.12
07.06.2012 20:00 D27802C 12.45 60.56 56 4186 9-Jul-12
08.15.2012 19:00 D27802C 2.1 100.11 56 6484 9-Jul-12 7.66

Due to bad uplink quality OSC traffic sharing was not satisfactory (only 53% quality sample is in between 0 to 4 which meet the OSC criteria)
Though it carry less % of OSC traffic due to bad quality sample but it helps to reduce TCH congestion by contributing some OSC traffic.
OSC Traffic penetration reached up to 7.66% at cell busy hour
Site to site distance is more than 5 km and call distribution also far from the site which is the possible cause for bad uplink quality.
Most of the quality samples are belongs to Rxlevel 90 to 110dBm for this cell which is out of OSC multiplexing range.

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 Thank You!

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