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Top-down route
Qualitative Bottom-up route
Quantitative
Delphi method
Simple regressions Nominal group technique
Multiple regressions Jury of executive opinion
Time trends Scenario projection
Moving averages
2
Quantitative Forecasting
Quantitative: Regression with related
variable
Data set of ‘Sales’ as related to both time
and the number of households.
HISTORICAL DATA
YEAR HOUSEHOLDS SALES
1991 815 2109
1992 927 2530
1993 1020 2287
1994 987 3194
1995 1213 3785
1996 1149 3372
1997 1027 3698
1998 1324 3908
1999 1400 3725
2000 1295 4129
2001 1348 4532
2002 1422 4487 3
Quantitative Forecasting
Quantitative: Sales plotted related to households.
5000
4000
Sales Units
3000
Sales
2000
1000
0
0 500 1000 1500
Numbe r of House holds
4
Quantitative Forecasting
Quantitative: Sales regressed on households.
SUMMARY OUTPUT SALES REGRESSED AS A FUNCTION
Edited output OF from the Excel regression.
HOUSEHOLDS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.824389811
R Square 0.67961856
Adjusted R Square 0.644020623 <== "Strength" of the regression
Standard Error 429.2094572
Observations 11
5000
4000
Sales Units
3000
Sales
2000
1000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
10
Quantitative Forecasting:
Fitted Regression Line
Sales Regression: Line Fit Plot
5000
4000
Actual
3000
Sales
2000
Predicted
1000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
11
Quantitative Forecasting:
Regression Line Information
From the Excel spreadsheet.
EDITED SUMMARY OUTPUT REGRESSION OF SALES ON YEARS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9215
R Square 0.8492
Adjusted R Square 0.8324 <== "Strength" of regression.
Standard Error 294.5125
Observations 11
= 5198 Units
(Note: the large negative Y axis intercept results
from using the actual calendar years as the X axis
scale.)
13
Quantitative Forecasting:
Regression: Auto Forecast by Excel.
Sales by Year, With Automatic Three
Year Prediction
6000
5000 SALES
4000
Sales
3000
Simple Linear
2000 Regression,
Forecast Out to
1000 Year 2005
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
14
Quantitative Forecasting:
Moving Average- Auto Plot
Sales Units Per Year With Fitted Two
Year Moving Average
5000
4000
Sales Units
SALES
3000
2000 2 per. Mov.
Avg.
1000 (SALES)
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Years
15
Quantitative Forecasting:
Notes on Excel Auto Plot.
Excel will plot, and automatically forecast, a
data series which has a functional relationship.
For example, a regression trend line.
The auto plot is driven through the ‘Chart’
menu as ‘Add Trendline’. A particular forecast
is specified via the dialog box.
Future point data values cannot be read
from the automated trendline.
Non-functional relationships, such as a
moving average, can be plotted, but
cannot be automatically forecast.
16
Forecasting Routes
Top-Down
where international and national
events affect the future behaviour of
local variables.
17
Forecasting Routes