Application of Growth Curve

Modelling in Power to Gas

Analysis
Concepts and principles
What we have

In this research, we are faced to a longitudinal study.

The central concern of longitudinal research, however, revolves
around the description of patterns of stability and change, and the
explanation of how and why change does or does not take place
Overall conditions governing our problem
oN participants are recruited. (Here, we have three methods that needed
to be assessed)
oAll participants are assessed on T occasions.
oThe assessment schedule is identical for all participants.
oThere are some missing data.
Our Goal

The goal is to build a model to incorporate predictors of individual

variability in growth
Why growth curve model
• Growth curve model is used to model development of this technology
explicitly as a function of time.
• To capture continuous trajectory of change, will approach precisely
same data structure from different perspective
• Will build model for data that estimates change over time within each
individual and then compare change across individuals
Assumptions
• All subjects in a given population are assumed to have developmental
curves of the same functional form (e.g., all linear), but the parameters
describing their curves may differ. In our work, we discuss cost and
value of Hydrogen in next years.
• The correlation between initial level and growth rate is zero. In other
words, the initial level has no predictive value for the growth rate.
Approaches
It can be approached from different perspectives but in here we study
two frameworks;
• Multilevel Regression (MLR)
• Latent Growth Curve Model (LGC).
Approaches
Both MLR and LGC incorporate the factor ‘time’ explicitly.
Within the MLR framework time is modeled as an independent
variable
The LGC approach adopts a latent variable view; Time is
incorporated as specific constrained values for the factor loadings of
the latent variable that represents the slope of the growth curve;
The mean and covariance structure of the latent variables in LGC
analysis correspond to the fixed and random effects in MLR analysis,
 Describing equations & involved parameters
The main equations for a repeatedly measured variable Ɣ𝑡𝑖 of individual i,
at occasion t, may be written as:,

Ɣ𝑡𝑖 = ƛ0𝑡 ƞ0𝑖 +ƛ1𝑡 ƞ1𝑖 +Ɣ𝑡𝑖 𝑋𝑡𝑖 + Ɵ𝑡𝑖

ƞ0𝑖 = Ʋ0𝑖 + Ɣ0 𝑍𝑖 + ζ0𝑖
ƞ1𝑖 = Ʋ1 + Ɣ1 𝑍𝑖 + ζ1𝑖
where ƛ1𝑡 denotes the time of measurement and ƛ0𝑡 a constant equal to
the value of 1.
The individual intercept and slope of the growth curve are represented by
ƞ0𝑖 and ƞ1𝑖 , respectively.
Describing equations & involved parameters
Ʋ0 and Ʋ1 are expectations, and random departures or residuals are
ζ0𝑖 and ζ1𝑖 , respectively
Ɣ2𝑡 represents the effect of the time-varying covariate 𝑋𝑡𝑖 ; Ɣ0 and Ɣ1
are the effects of the time-invariant covariate on the initial level and
linear slope.
The differences between these two frameworks refer to procedure of
treatment with some parameters and the way is time is incorporated in
the model.
In MLR ƞ0𝑖 &ƞ1𝑖 are the random parameters but in LGC, these are latent
variables and ƛ0𝑡 &ƛ1𝑡 are parameters.
Describing equations & involved parameters
MLR is essentially a univariate approach, with time points treated as
observation of the same Variable
But
LGC is a multivariate approach with each Time point is treated as a
separate Variable
In Our Case
This a growth analysis of power to gas technology, where individual
data are collected for a sample of individuals at different occasions in
their development.
In fact, with this modelling we could summarize the behavior of
existing data in an understandable format.
We need time-adjacent predictions and growth model can estimate
smoothed time trajectories within individuals. It can be
conceptualized as repeated measures nested within individuals.
We are curious to know, what is the starting point of this pool of data
and where this trajectory will go over the time or the slope of
obtained profile.
In Our Case
This modelling will average over the existing data during
determined time.
There are different methods of generating hydrogen in the
context of power to gas technology. In the specified time
period we can find an average of whole cost related to the
generation of hydrogen.
It can show inter individual differences in each trajectory and
intra individual changes among the trajectories.
Regarding the mentioned points we choose MLR framework
for our studies.