08/04/2019 AoA Transport Lunch Seminar

Commercial aircraft operation

engine realibility & safety

Olivier Petit & Henrik Ekstrand

Applied Mechanics department, fluid mechanics division
Background
There is a market pull to fly further and further away.
Average of 6 000 – 10 000 planes in the sky at any time. (expected 5% per
year increase for the coming 10 years)
Need for regulations to avoid accidents, and manage take-off and landings.
Creation of highways in the sky to avoid collision.

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Aviation safety
A wide topic where interaction typically occurs between all stakeholders
(e.g. Airspace Users (AUs), Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs),
Airport Operators etc.).

Airspace Users typically has great redundancy in various systems (e.g.

three hydraulic systems).

Communication, Navigation & Surveillance (CNS).

ANSPs and AUs are using various surveillance systems for traffic
sequencing and separation, including airborne anti collision systems such
as the Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS).

Satellite navigation used as primary navigation source associated with

very high accuracy.

Communication is established all around the world via ground stations or

SatCom.

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1953 data from ICAO(International Civil Aviation Organisation)
Early airplanes were powered by piston engine. The reliability of piston engine at the time was rather poor.
There is a close correlation between engine failure and engine power (see left picture).
As a consequence, a 60 minute rule was established In 1953: to always operate an aircraft within 100 NM
from an adequate airport (100 NM ≈ 60 min flying with one engine inoperative).
1 NM (Nautical Mile=1.852 km)
Probability of failure for piston engines vs.
power at a constant engine speed of 1 000 rpm.
10 16

10 000 hours for 6 000 HP

8.94 13.68

Failure probability per

14
Failure probability per

9
8 6.84 12
10.08
10 000 hours

7
10 8.12
6 4.97
5 8
4 3.36 6
3 2.03 4
2 1
1 2
0 0
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1500 2000 3000
Engine horsepower Failure probabilities 6 000 HP installed
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Reliability of jet engines since the 1950s and onwards
The introduction of jet engines significantly enhanced the reliability and safety of propulsion
systems.
The failure probability of a jet engine in neither affected by the thrust nor by the size of the
engine.
In today’s operation it is possible to operate > 180 minutes from an adequate airport with a twin
engine aircraft (based on single engine operation).

0.012
0.01

Failure rate per

1000 hours
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0
22-30 37-40 48-50 50-60 65-70+
Engine thrust (kilo Pounds)

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ETOPS certification: Extended-range Twin engine OPerationS
ETOPS certification operational since 1985
(ETOPS-90, ETOPS-120)
ETOPS certification representation
ETOPS definition: extended range operations
are those flights conducted over a route that
contain a point further than one hour flying time
at the approved one-engine inoperative cruise
speed (under standard conditions in still air)
from an adequate airport.
Combined safety measure, EROPS: En Route
Alternate Airports. It denotes that this airport is
adequate for use as an ETOPS alternate
(weather, runway length, wide and strength…).
Military airports are available as En Route
Alternate.

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Operational impact
120 min operation

180 min operation

Direct route = 4350 NM 60 min rule = 5700 NM 180 min rule = 4350 NM
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Engine certification
There are hundreds of tests that need to be
performed for certification of a turbine engine.
Amongst them are:
Maximum static thrust tests
Vibration tests
Endurance tests
Water ingestion test
Hail ingestion test
Ice cloud test
Bird strike test

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Engine certification:
electronic code of federal regulations: http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?rgn=div5&node=14:1.0.1.3.16#_top

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Engine certification:
electronic code of federal regulations: http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?rgn=div5&node=14:1.0.1.3.16#_top

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Aviation statistics
You can travel 7 times to the moon or 14 000 times around the globe before experiencing an emergency
landing to En Route Alternate Airports.
There were four accidents resulting in passenger fatalities in 2015, all of which involved turboprop aircraft,
with 136 fatalities. This compares with an average of 17.6 fatal accidents and 504 fatalities per year in the
previous five-year period (2010-2014).

Boeing Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Aircraft IATA: International Air Transport Association, trade association for the
Accidents 1959-2015 world’ airlines

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 Thank you for your attention!

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