Environmental Prediction into the Next Decade: Weather,

Climate, Water and the Air We Breathe

Incheon, Republic of Korea, 16-17, November 2009

Muhammad Touseef Alam

Director 1
Pakistan Meteorological Department
The country has a long latitudinal extent stretching from the Arabian Sea
in the south to the Himalayan mountains in north
It is located in sub-tropics and partially in temperate region

Most Parts of Pakistan

are Arid to Semi Arid
with significant spatial
and temporal variability
in climatic parameters
59% Annual Rainfall is
due to summer
monsoons;
Greater Himalayan
region above 35o N
receives winter
precipitation mostly in
the form of snow and
ice.

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 CLIMATE CHANGE
Natural Climate Climate Change
Variability Natural + Anthropogenic Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its
uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & Snow
Sea level Rise
Increase in Frequency &
Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events
Anthropogenic Influences
since the Industrial revolution
IMPACTS
Spiraling
Population
Uncertainty in Water
Availability
High pace of
Industrialization Decrease in Crop Yields
Increasing use of Loss of Biodiversity
Fossil Fuels in
Industry & Increase Health Risks
Transport

Deforestation for
Agriculture and 3
Urbanization
Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan

2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain on 18 & 19 July. Heaviest

rainfall earlier recorded at Karachi was 207 mm on 1st
July, 1977. The normal rainfall at Karachi for the periods
1961-1990 is 85.5 mm

2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007.

48°C temperature was recorded on 9th June at Lahore, a
record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th
June 1929

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Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan

2007Two super cyclones namely Gonu (02A) of Cat-5 and

Yemyin (03B) of Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea
during June, 2007 and hit Makran Coast and adjoining
countries. The history of the Arabian Sea at least during
the previous century shows no such events occurring twice in a
month

2001 620 mm rainfall recorded in Islamabad during 10 hours in

the month of July (on 23rd of July); it caused flooding in
Lainullah

1998-2001 History’s worst drought gripped southern parts of

Pakistan and parts of surrounding countries

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 Recent Climate Extremes observed in
South Asia and Middle East

 2003 Heavy rains in the holy city of Makkah,

Saudi Arabia on November 10;
caused widespread flooding of the
city

 2005 In India’s western state of Maharashtra,

exceptionally heavy rainfall was
recorded on July 26 when 944 mm
(37.1 in) of rain fell in Mumbai. This was
a new all-time 24-hour rainfall for
the country, breaking the old
record of 838 mm set in
Cherrapunji in 1910. Around
1000 people died and damages
reached $ 3.5 billion 6
Recent Climate Extremes observed in
South Asia and Middle East

 2004 Snowfall in the al-Jiys mountain

range in UAE, the first ever in
historical record

 2007 Sidr, a tropical cyclone of Cat-4

slammed ashore of India- Bangladesh
border on 15 Nov, 2007. This
matched the one in 1991 that
sparked tidal wave and killed some
150,000 people

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Siachen Glacier Past & Present

1989 2006

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 Annual Mean Temperature Trend in (°C) in different regions of Pakistan
Regions (1951-2000)
I (a):
Greater Himalayas

I (b):
Sub-montane

II:
Western Highlands

III
Central & Southern
Punjab

IV
Lower Indus Plains

V (a)
Balochistan Plateau
(East)

V (b)
Balochistan Plateau
(West)

VI
Coastal Areas

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Negative Trends in Region I b, II and IV; Positive Trends in other regions
 Annual % Precipitation Trend in (mm) in different regions of Pakistan
(1951-2000)
Regions
I (a):
Greater Himalayas
(Winter dominated)

I (b):
Sub-montane region
and monsoon dominated

II:
Western Highlands

III
Central & Southern
Punjab

IV
Lower Indus Plains

V (a)
Balochistan Province
(Sulaiman & Kirthar ranges)

V (b)
Balochistan Plateau
(Western)

VI
Coastal Areas

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Negative Trends in Region II & VI; Positive Trends in other regions
 Percentage Precipitation Changes (on yearly basis)
(1951-2000)

Monsoon Winter
Regions/Seasons Annual (Jun-Sep) (Dec-Mar)

I (a): Greater Himalayas

0.49 1.73 -0.04

I (b): Sub-montane
0.3A 0.38 0.53
II: Western Highlands
-0.02 0.22 0.00
III: Central & Southern
0.63 0.57 0.99
Punjab
IV: Lower Indus Plains
0.22 0.45 -0.27
V (a): Balochistan Plateau
1.19 1.16 1.14
(East)
V (b): Balochistan Plateau
(west) 0.1 -0.2 -0.4

VI: Coastal Areas -0.82 -1.34 0.00

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Annual Temperature (°C) Trend 1901-2000 for
Pakistan

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Annual Precipitation (mm) Trend 1901-2000
for Pakistan

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Climate Change Trends over Pakistan

 The slope of the mean annual temperature over

Pakistan during the 48-year period 1960-2007
was found as:

1901-2000 0.06 °C per decade

1960-2007 0.24 °C per decade

 The rate of increase is higher than the rate of

increase observed globally

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 Climate Change Projections

a) Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km) projections

using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2, B2 and A1B
Scenarios
b) Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km) projections by
dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for A2
scenario using RCMs
Base period: 1961 – 1990
Futures: 2020s = 2010 – 2039
2050s = 2040 – 2069
2080s = 2070 – 2099

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GCM-Ensemble based Projected Changes in Annual Average
Temperature (°C) and Precipitation in 2080s
(A2 Scenario)

Temperature Change (°C) Precipitation Change (%)

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Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C)
by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario

Northern Southern
Pakistan
Pakistan Pakistan

Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18

Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26

Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18

• Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher

in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan
• Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are
higher in winter than in summer

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Projected Precipitation Changes in 2080s, ∆P(%) by
GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario

Northern Southern
Pakistan
Pakistan Pakistan

Annual 3.48 ± 5.78 1.13 ± 3.95 4.28 ± 9.46

Summer 12.16 ± 8.91 1.08 ± 8.35 51.07 ± 39.78

Winter -5.12 ± 4.78 -2.24 ± 4.10 -20.51 ± 9.05

• The rather large errors make it difficult to draw any definite

conclusions about change in precipitation with time
• There is, however, some indication of precipitation increase in
summer and precipitation decrease in winter in the Southern
Pakistan
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Major Climate Change-related Concerns of
Pakistan

 Key sectors: Water and Agriculture at greatest risk

 Increased risks of floods and landslides, droughts,

typhoons and tropical storms, forest fires etc. due
to increase in frequency and intensity of extreme
events

 Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-

arid regions due to reduced rainfall, increased
temp., and depletion of soil moisture – May lead to
expansion of deserts

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 (Contd.)

Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

 More rapid recession of Hindu Kush (HKH) Glaciers due to

increase in temp. and seasonal variability of precipitation may
lead to increased summer flows in Indus river system for a few
decades, followed by reduction in flows as Glaciers disappear;

 Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in

snowline on mountains with increase in surface temp. – May
increase risk of floods during the wet season;

 Agriculture productivity likely to suffer severe losses due to

high temp., droughts, flood conditions and soil degradation –
Would endanger food security of the country;

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 (Contd.)

Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

 Large reduction in productivity of both warm water and cold

water fish due to oxygen depletion in aquatic systems

 As a result of sea level rise, large scale inundation of

coastline and recession of flat sandy beaches; upstream
incursion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to
mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish

 Enhanced risk to life and property in coastal areas due to

increased intensity of tropical cyclones, combined with sea
level rise; High risk for Karachi and other coastal areas of
Sindh-Makran coast
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 (Contd.)

Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

 Higher incidence of Malaria and other vector-borne, water-

borne and heat-related diseases due to warmer and wetter
conditions

 Risk to fragile ecology of Mountain and Highland systems

due to synergetic effects of Climate Change

 Increased threat to biodiversity, which is already at risk due

to land-use/cover change and population pressure

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 Concluding Remarks

 Temperature increases both past and projected are

higher over Pakistan compared to the global changes
and as such the country is more vulnerable to climate
change. Intensive research is needed to study the
adverse impacts of climate change on different socio-
economic sectors such as water resources, agriculture
production etc.

 Pakistan has more glaciers than any other land

outside the North and South Poles with sizeable ones
in the Karakoram ranges. Glacier melt, in the wake of
climate change, is a big threat to the country’s water
resources and needs systematic studies to be carried
out on the mass balance of glaciers
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 Contd..
Concluding Remarks

 Capacity Building in the use development and

modification of mathematical models for use in
climate change related studies, needs to be
enhanced
 A clear cut climate change policy spelling out the
government policy and plan of action needs to be
formulated to counter the adverse impacts of
climate change
And finally
 This new field of climate change, being an emerging
component of natural sciences, needs to be taken
up as part of the curricula of studies at the college
and university level
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