Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Portfolio management
Investment Evaluation
Risk and Return
His most famous investment principle is
"Know what you own, and know why you
own it", who is he?
Paul Samuelson
Dave Ramsey
Ben Graham
Peter Lynch
Do your homework before making a
decision. And once you've made a
decision, make sure to re-evaluate your
portfolio on a timely basis. A wise holding
today may not be a wise holding in the
future. These are the words of Peter
Lynch, an American businessman and
stock investor. Often described as a
"chameleon," Peter Lynch adapted to
whatever investment style worked at that
time.
Participants
of SECURITIES MARKET
1. Regulators
CLB
RBI
SEBI
DEA
DCA
Participants
of Securities market cont’d….
2. Stock Exchanges
3. Depositories – NSDL and CSDL
4. Brokers
5. FII
6. Merchant Bankers
7. Primary dealers (Underwriters & Market makers of
govt. securities )
Participants
of Securities market cont’d….
8. Custodians (back office of MFs)
9. Bankers to an issue
10. Debenture Trustees
11. Credit rating agencies
12. Transfer agents / Registrars
Settlement
NSDL and CSDL
Rolling settlement in T+2 basis
T – Trade
T+1 – custodial confirmation
T+2 – payin and payout of funds and securities
T+3 – Auction
T+5 - payin and payout for auctions
Transaction costs
1. Trading costs – a) Brokerage 3paise-
5paise per Rs100
b) Market Impact Cost
c) STT (.2% delivery &
.03% daytrade)
2. Clearing costs
3. Settlement costs – decreased from 5% to
.5%
Achievements
ET
Company (Previous close), open, high,low,close,
[Volume,Value,Trades] P/E,MCap, 52week high
& low
Stock Market indices
To Measure the movement of the market
Index= (Total Market Cap/ Base value)* base
index
Derivatives Trading
On-line trading
T+1 Settlement Cycle
Free Pricing
Outcry Straight Through Processing
Dematerialisation Single Window, multi-exchange
Physical
settlement Short settlement cycle Wireless Trading
26
Security
Financial assets or securities are assets
that represent a claim to future cash flows.
Bond: A bond is a debt security, in which
the authorized issuer owes the holders a
debt and is obliged to repay the principal
and interest at a later date.
Equity: Capital raised from the owners by
issuing securities representing the
ownership claim to the economic unit.
27
Bond Terminology
Par Value: Value stated on the face of the
bond that the firm promises to repay at the
time of maturity.
Vo = 2000 × PVIF 18 %, 7
=2000 ×3.812 =7624
33
The value of financial assets
0 1 2 n
k ...
Value CF1 CF2 CFn
34
Security valuation
Types of security values:
1. Book Value
2. Liquidity value
3. Intrinsic value
4. Replacement value
5. Market value
Concept of Value
Replacement of Value: is the amount that company
would be required to spend if it were to replace the
existing assets in the current condition.
Liquidation Value: is the amount a company can be
realized if it sells its assets after having terminated
the business.
Going concern value is the amount that company
can realized if it sells its business as an operating
one.
Market value: of an assets or security is the current
price at which assets or security is being sold.
Book value :assets recorded in historical cost,
depreciated over years
36
Earning Capitalization Approach
Financial analysts have used this P/E model more frequently
than any other model. According to this model, the expected
earning per share is :
Expected PAT –Preference dividend
Number of outstanding shares
P/ E Ratio is calculated as the price of the share divided by
earning per share.
The reciprocal of P/E ratio is called earning price ratio or
earning yield.
Investors in practice seem to attach a lot of importance to P/E
ratio.
Some people use P/E multiplier to value the share of
company.
37
P/E value
Profit Earning Capacity Value =
EPS x Capitalisation Rate
The P/E Ratio Approach
The P/E ratio is the ratio of current market
price of the share to the earnings per share
of the firm.
Let
P0 = Value of Equity Share
D1 = Dividend per share
E1 = Earnings per share
b = Plough-back ratio or retained earnings
ROE = Return on Equity
39
The P/E Ratio Approach
The value of equity share is given as
D1 g ROE b
P0 D1 E1 (1 b)
rg
E1 (1 b)
P0
r ( ROE b)
Where b = retention ratio
ROE = return on Equity
g= growth rate
Dr.P.R.Kulkarni 4/5/2019 40
Book Value Approach
Book Value of the share is total net-worth
of the equity shareholders divided by the
number of shares outstanding.
41
Liquidation Value Approach
The minimum value of the share in case
of liquidating the firm in its current status
LV
Asset liquidatio n value credit prefrenceshares
No.ofShares
42
1. Book Value = Networth
Number of Equity shares
2.Liquidity Value = Net Fixed Assets +CA – CL
Number of Equity shares
Based on EBDIT
FCF = operational cashflow – capex
Asset Valuation
Book Value of assets = (total Assets –
long term debt) / No.of shares
Or Equity (NW) / No.of o/s shares
Price to BV ratio = MP / BV of shares
Yield Valuation
n
C F
P
t 1 1 Kd t
1 kd n
55
PV of a bond
56
Bond Value with Maturity
n
C F
P
t 1 1 Kd t
1 kd n
58
Solution
Annual interest payable for 5 years= Rs 70
Principle repayable amount at end of 5 yrs
=Rs 1000
The intrinsic value or the present value of
bond
=Rs 70 (PVIFA 8%,5yrs ) + Rs 1000( PVIF 8%,5yrs )
=Rs 70 x 3.993 +Rs 1000 x 0.681
=279.51 +681 =Rs 960.51
59
Bond Value (Semi-Annual Payments)
2n
I F
/2
Po t
2n
t 1 Kd kd
1 1
2 2
60
Example
A bond of Rs 1000 value carries a
coupon rate of 10% and maturity
period of 6 years. Interest is payable
semi- annually. If required rate of
return is 12%.Calculate the value of
bond.
61
solution
62
Valuation of Shares
A company may issue two types of
shares:
ordinary shares and
preference shares
Features of Preference and Ordinary
Shares
Claims
Dividend
Redemption
Conversion
63
Dr.P.R.Kulkarni 4/5/2019
The preference share may be issued
with or without maturity period.
Redeemable preference shares are
with the maturity.
Irredeemable shares are shares
without maturity.
The holders of preference shares get
dividend at fixed rate.
Dr.P.R.Kulkarni 4/5/2019 64
Valuation of Preference
Shares
The value of the preference share would be the
sum of the present values of dividends and the
redemption value.
Po = Dividend x PVIFA kp, n +Maturity Value x PVIF
kp, n
65
Dr.P.R.Kulkarni 4/5/2019
Equity valuation Models
Equity valuation [ Dividend Capitalisation
models]
P0 = D1 + P1 ie.,
(1+r) (1+r)
Gordon model or
Constant (perpetual) growth
model
P0 = D1
r–g
P0 = pv of stock
g = growth rate
r = required rate of return
D1 = next year dividend
D1 = D0 (1+g)
zero growth model
P0 = D0 (1+g)
Ke - g
phase 2
phase 3
gb
Time
Three phase model
P0= A D0 (1+ga)t B Dt-1 (1+gb) DB (1+gn)
+ +
t=1 (1+ke)t t=A+1 (1+ke)t r- gn (1+ ke)B
Multiple year holding period
N [(E0) dp] (1+g) n (P/E) [(E0) (1+g) N+1]
+
n=1 (1+ke)n (1+ke)N
E(Ri) = pi (Ri)
σ p = σ p2
Standard deviation of portfolio can
also be written as follows:
For a two stock portfolio:
p wA A wB B 2wA wB A B
2 2 2 2
Correlation Coefficient
Return :
Rx = ∑Rx / n
Risk or σ :
σ 2= N ∑Rx 2 - (∑Rx ) 2
N2
Covariance = ∑ [ R - R ] [ R - R ]
x x y y
N
Correlation between X & Y securities:
rx,y = covx,y
σx x σy
Correlation coefficient is also calculated as
follows:[ for stock and market correlation] in Regression
model
Systematic Unsystematic
(external factors/ [internal factors/
Uncontrollable, affects the market specific, unique, related
As a whole like, political,social, to a particular firm/ industry]
Economic) 1. Business risk
1. market risk 2. Financial risk (debt: equity)
2. Interest rate
3. Purchasing power
4. Inflation rate