Renewable Energy Sources As A Key To Development

Renewable energy sources as driving
force for local development

21st to 27th August 2016
Fojnica, Bosnia and Herzegovina
The German Energy Transition (Energiewende)

Dr. Sebastian Bolay, German Chamber of
Commerce and Industry (DIHK)
21 – 27.08.2016, Fojnica 12th Summer School „Renewable energy sources as driving force for local development“
Wind Off-
shore
Wind On-
shore
Lignite
Grid costs
Lignite
Most CCIs:
Energiewende
costs
Capacity
payments
Solar
How the Energiewende affects the

companies
How the Energiewende affects the

companies
15
10
5
Service Sector
Building Sector
0
-5
-10
All sectors
-15
-20 Retail
-25
-30
Industry
-35
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
German „Energiewende“ objectives

2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse
Climate -40% -55% -70% -80 to -95%
Gases
Share of
Renewable At least 35% 50% 65% 80%
Electricity
Energies
Overall share 18% 30% 45% 60%
Primary Energy
-20% -50%
Consumption
+ closure of all
Eletricity
Energy Consumption
-10% nuclear reactors -25%
Efficiency until 2022

Energy
Consumption in -20% -80%
Buildings
Transport
-20% -50%
Sector
5
Is Germany on track?
Quelle: Privat
Is the Energiewende a threat to the German

economy? - A SWOT-Analysis
Weaknesses
• Grid expansion too slow
• EU-Integration
Strengths Opportunities
• RES-Integration
• Building up renewable • Export: Technology and
capacities • Little effect on CO2-emissions concepts
• Stronger independence of gas
• Innovation
Threats and oil imports
• Rising electricity costs
• Missing power storage and

production facilities
7
Electricity Production 2000
1% 4%
5%
9%
26%
30%
25%
Water Lignite Coal Nuclear Gas Oil Other

Electricity Production 2015
1% 4% Wind: 14%
Biomass: 8%
9% Solar: 6%
30% Water: 3%
14%
18%
24%
Renewables Lignite Coal Nuclear Gas Oil Other

RES extension plans in Germany since

2016
Extension plan RES
2025 40 – 45 %
2035 55 – 60 %
Extension plan - technologies

wind onshore 2,8 – 2,9 GW / a
wind offshore 6,5 GW until 2020
15 GW until 2030
Photovoltaic 2,5 GW /a
bioenergy 150 – 200 MW / a
Geothermal energy / No extension volume specified
hydropower
13 2014
24. Juli March 2015 Jakob Flechtner: Germany‘s renewable energy transformation 10
Projection: Installed Capacity 2030

180
2015 2030
160 153
140
120
100
98 Highest
Load
GW
80
66
59
60
41 39
40
15
20
7 6 6 6
Lowest
3
0
Load
Wind Wind PV Biomass Water Sum
Onshore Offshore
How does this work?

How Germany supports RES

Since 2000 Since 2014 Since 2016
• Rule: RES feed in first • Rule: RES feed in first • Rule: RES feed in first
• Fixed feed-in tariff by • Fixed feed-in tariff by • Fixed feed-in tariff by

law (EEG) law (EEG) only for law (EEG) only for
installations < 100 kW installations < 100 kW
• Optional: Direct • Direct marketing with • Direct marketing with
marketing with market market premium by market premium by
premium by EEG EEG is obligatory auction is obligatory
• Connection to the grid • Connection to the grid • Connection to the grid

by law by law by law
• TSO sell RES at the day- • Direct marketeers sell • Direct marketeers sell
ahead market RES at the day-ahead RES at the day-ahead
market market
RES Integration
10
Fixed value
9
by law
8
7
Floating market
Erlös in Cent/kWh
6
premium
5
3
Market
revenues
2
0
8 Uhr 9 Uhr 10 Uhr 11 Uhr 12 Uhr 13 Uhr 14 Uhr 15 Uhr 16 Uhr 17 Uhr 18 Uhr
24. Juli 2014

Where is the customer?

Auctioning increases cost efficiency

Free-Standing PV Plants
10
9.17
9 8.48
8
8 7.41 7.23
7
6
Cent/kWh
5
Market
4
Premium
3
2 Market Price
1 2016
0
1. Round (2015) 2. Round (2015) 3. Round (2015) 4. Round (2016) 5. Round (2016)
Deterioration of PV costs
60
50
50
40
39
Cent/kWh
30
20
9.17 8.48 8
10 7.41 7.23
Feed-in Feed-in 1. Round 2. Round 3. Round 4. Round 5. Round

tariff 2000 tariff 2010 (2015) (2015) (2015) (2016) (2016)
RES: Merit-Order-Effect
Marginal costs / €/MWh
Average RES costs
EEG-Surcharge
Revenues
Renewables Nuclear, Lignite Coal, Gas Oil, pump storages
Demand kWh
Day-ahead prices at the German Energy

Exchange
Competitivness depends on taxes and

levies
Subsidies for RES
Source: ecofys
Costs Explosion…
Billion Euros
… is not over yet

Estimated cumulated cost increase 2016 to 2025
35 33
30 30
30
25
Billion Euro
20
15
10
10 7.5 7
5
1.6 1.6
0
Nuclear Power phase-out

• In 2011: Immediate closedown of
the seven oldest nuclear plants and
Krümmel
• This corresponds to 40 % of
German nuclear capacity
• Last three plants will be closed
on 31st december 2022
• Christian-liberal coalition returned
to the accord between the the
socialist-green government and the
nuclear plants operators in 2000
Built grids, grids, grids…
FotoHiero / pixelio.de
Marco Barnebeck / pixelio.de
Electricity borders
Grid congestions
Curtailed RES MWh

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
MWh
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Curtailment Costs of RES

450
400
350
300
Million Euro
250
200
150
100
50
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Aim: Completing the internal energy

market
2010: CWE 2010: SWE
2014: CWE + NWE
• more reliable electricity systems • better manage increasing levels of renewables

• reducing the need to build new power • saving € 12 – 40 billion / year
stations
27
Market coupling
Price match Germany - France
28
RES as a source for local development?!

Who ownes RES plants?

1%
14%
35%
13%
11%
14%
12%
Private Households Projecting Companies Energy Companies

Farmers Banks/Funds Companies
Other
The PV-age is about to begin
Source: Agora Energiewende

Source: private
Self Generation: Important means for

many companies
Self Generation 2012 10 9 16 66
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Implemented Pending Planned No measure

Source: private
Green is beautiful
Source: private
Is decoupling from the grid an option?
Rising energy costs

Quelle: Privat
Use the demand side for RES expansion
Question: Are you willing to pay more for

certified Germand/regional green electricity?
3 4
9
no willingness tp pay more

21
up to 2%
64
up to 5%
up to 10%
more
Source: DIHK survey

Energy Scouts
45 CCIs currently offer this
training or plan to offer it in 2016
Since 2014 more than 2.200

apprentices participated in this
training
> 700 companies have already

benefitted from this training
Quelle: Dieter Schütz / pixelio.de

Source:
Private
And what about heating and transport?

RES share of primary demand
Government
goals
RES share in the heating sector

RES share in the transport sector

Energy demand by different sectors
Retail, Service
Sector
Households
Transport
Industry
100% RES electricity supply:

tallation of 617 GW Wind or 1.850 GW PV
Source: Erich Westendarp / pixelio.de

Dr. Sebastian Bolay
Leiter des Referats Strommarkt,

erneuerbare Energien, Koordination
Energiepolitik
Deutscher Industrie- und
Handelskammertag
Breite Str. 29
10178 Berlin
Fon +49(0)30.20308-2202
Fax +49(0)30.203085-2202
www.dihk.de
bolay.sebastian@dihk.de

Renewable Energy Sources As A Key To Development

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Renewable Energy Sources As A Key To Development

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Renewable energy sources as driving

force for local development

The German Energy Transition (Energiewende)

How the Energiewende affects the

How the Energiewende affects the

German „Energiewende“ objectives

Efficiency until 2022

Is the Energiewende a threat to the German

• Grid expansion too slow

• Rising electricity costs

• Missing power storage and

Electricity Production 2000

Water Lignite Coal Nuclear Gas Oil Other

Electricity Production 2015

Renewables Lignite Coal Nuclear Gas Oil Other

RES extension plans in Germany since

Extension plan - technologies

Projection: Installed Capacity 2030

How does this work?

How Germany supports RES

• Fixed feed-in tariff by • Fixed feed-in tariff by • Fixed feed-in tariff by

• Connection to the grid • Connection to the grid • Connection to the grid

24. Juli 2014

Where is the customer?

Auctioning increases cost efficiency

Feed-in Feed-in 1. Round 2. Round 3. Round 4. Round 5. Round

Average RES costs

Renewables Nuclear, Lignite Coal, Gas Oil, pump storages

Day-ahead prices at the German Energy

Competitivness depends on taxes and

Subsidies for RES

… is not over yet

Nuclear Power phase-out

Built grids, grids, grids…

Marco Barnebeck / pixelio.de

Curtailed RES MWh

Curtailment Costs of RES

Aim: Completing the internal energy

• more reliable electricity systems • better manage increasing levels of renewables

Price match Germany - France

RES as a source for local development?!

Who ownes RES plants?

Private Households Projecting Companies Energy Companies

The PV-age is about to begin

Source: Agora Energiewende

Self Generation: Important means for

Self Generation 2013 10 9 16 66

Self Generation 2015 16 7 16 61

Self Generation 2015 18 8 14 61

Self Generation 2016 20 6 11 63

Implemented Pending Planned No measure

Is decoupling from the grid an option?

Rising energy costs

Use the demand side for RES expansion

Question: Are you willing to pay more for

no willingness tp pay more

Source: DIHK survey

Since 2014 more than 2.200

> 700 companies have already

Quelle: Dieter Schütz / pixelio.de

And what about heating and transport?

RES share of primary demand

RES share in the heating sector