Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Ahusika

Renewable energy sources as driving
force for local development

21st to 27th August 2016
Fojnica, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Doc.dr Azrudin Husika, dipl.ing.

21 – 27.08.2016, Fojnica 12th Summer School „Renewable energy sources as driving force for local development“
CONTENT
CLIMATE CHANGE vs. DEVELOPMENT
Development
strategy
Development Low
adapted on carbon
climate changes
Development developme
nt
compatible with
climate changes
Strategy for Strategy for
adaptation on mitigation of climate
climate changes changes
Advance Energy Planning
BUSINESS AS USUAL
ENERGY USE
ENERGY REQUIREMENTS
EFFICIENCY
RESOURCES &
REDUCED USE
UNSUSTAINABLE
ENERGY
RESOURCES
SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY
RESOURCES
TIME
Blair Hamilton, Managing energy demand, 2009

Decoupling is possible – Danish case
Source: Duic, 2013

Driving forces for RES and EE

CLIMATE CHANGE vs. DEVELOPMENT
1. Employment (local benefit)

2. Energy security (state/national benefit)
3. Reduction of greenhouse gases emission (global benefit)
4. Reduction of air pollution (local and regional benefit)
Different position of developed and developing

countries!
Climate change responsibility

Emission 10 9 t CO 2
Emission per capita 10 3 t CO2
12
10
6
World
4
22
00
Middle Former Non-OECD
East Soviet Europe
Union
(source: P.Bauer, 2010)


• What is an unit of responsibility of a
country?
• tCO2/a
• tCO2/a per capita
• tCO2/GDP above treshold
Dimension of climate change issue
• Timeframe
• Economy
• Political
Timeframe of climate change issue

Timeframe of climate change issue

Economy dimension of climate change issue

Economy dimension of climate change issue
• Responsibility of a country or citizens of a

country?
• Different life style and living standard
• Definition of basic human needs – income
treshold
• Income above treshold – measure of
responsibility
Economy dimension
of climate change issue
Source: SEI, 2010

Greenhouse Development Rights
Framework:
• The specification of a global temperature target,
• Calculation of a responsibility and capacity indicator (RCI)
that determines, for each country, its share of the global
mitigation and adaptation burdens;
• Specification of the mitigation exemption that relieves poor
countries of their obligation to pay for mitigation, that they
might instead pursue their proper human development
priorities; and
• The definition of a development obligation for rich people in
poor countries.
Calculation of RCI
• Capacity - income not demanded by the
necessities of daily life
• Responsibility – contribution to climate
change
Capacity and responsibility - in individual
terms, and in a manner that takes explicit
account of the unequal distribution of
income within countries
Responsibility
Source: SEI 2008

Calculation of RCI
RCI = a R + b C
a and b – weighted coefficients

RCI
National reductions obligations defined as
shares of the global mitigation
requirement, which is allocated among
countries in proportion to their RCIs
RCI calculator
Source: SEI, 2010

Low competitivness of RES
1. Subsidies for fossil fuels
2. High investment costs (and capital

cost in developing countries)
3. Criteria of acceptable pay back period

Subsidies for fossil fuels
Fossil fuel subsidies – 10

times bigger than RES
subsidies
Subsidies for fossil fuels

Country Energy related subsidies as % of
GDP
Albania 7-8%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 9-10%
Croatia 5-6%
Macedonia 8-9%
Montenegro 10-11%
Serbia 7-9%
Kosovo 35-36%
UNDP, 2011, Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Western Balkans

Energy system of low carbon society
1. Renewables
2. Buildings as energy producers
3. Energy storage
4. Smart electricity and heating grids, electric
vehciels
Carbon footprint calculation
fuel t CO2/TJ energy content

natural gas 55,82
LPG 62,44
heating oil 76,59
hard coal 92,71
brown coal 94,15
lignite 99,18
heating wood -
Baseline – Electricity Carbon footprint

Baseline – Electricity Carbon footprint
0,7 – 0,8 tCO2/MWh

1 MWh generated from RES reduces 0,7 – 0,8 tCO2/MWh
Baseline – Carbon footprint

Baseline – Carbon footprint

Possible scenarios
High level of energy efficiency
Sustainability
growth throught energy growth based on new

market technologies and services
Investments in
Coal investments renewables
Pitfall of resources and poverty Depletition of forests, rivers,

landscapes...
Low level of energy efficiency,

Low level of sustainability
Sustainability of coal mining in BiH?
BiH SAD
14.000 coal miners
10 million t/a
0,72 million tons/thousands miners 12,26 million tons/thousands miners
• What will influence on energy price in the future?

- Costs for emission allowances
- Costs for reduction of emission of air pollutants
• How to mitigate increase of energy price?
- Investment in
1. “negawats” and
2. “green” megawats
“Green” megawats enable decentralisation,

decarbonization and change of ownerships of energy
systems
Thank you for your attention!

a.husika@reic.org.ba

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Renewable energy sources as driving

force for local development

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Doc.dr Azrudin Husika, dipl.ing.

CLIMATE CHANGE vs. DEVELOPMENT

Advance Energy Planning

Blair Hamilton, Managing energy demand, 2009

Decoupling is possible – Danish case

Source: Duic, 2013

Driving forces for RES and EE

1. Employment (local benefit)

Different position of developed and developing

Climate change responsibility

Climate change responsibility

(source: P.Bauer, 2010)

Climate change responsibility

Dimension of climate change issue

Timeframe of climate change issue

Timeframe of climate change issue

Economy dimension of climate change issue

Economy dimension of climate change issue

• Responsibility of a country or citizens of a

Source: SEI, 2010

Greenhouse Development Rights

Source: SEI 2008

a and b – weighted coefficients

Source: SEI, 2010

Low competitivness of RES

1. Subsidies for fossil fuels

2. High investment costs (and capital

3. Criteria of acceptable pay back period

Subsidies for fossil fuels

Fossil fuel subsidies – 10

Subsidies for fossil fuels

UNDP, 2011, Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Western Balkans

Energy system of low carbon society

Carbon footprint calculation

fuel t CO2/TJ energy content

Baseline – Electricity Carbon footprint

Baseline – Electricity Carbon footprint

0,7 – 0,8 tCO2/MWh

Baseline – Carbon footprint

Baseline – Carbon footprint

growth throught energy growth based on new

Pitfall of resources and poverty Depletition of forests, rivers,

Low level of energy efficiency,

Sustainability of coal mining in BiH?

• What will influence on energy price in the future?

“Green” megawats enable decentralisation,

Thank you for your attention!

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