MATA KULIAH

LAPANGAN TERBANG

PERENCANAAN BANDARA -
FORECASTING

PERDANA MIRAJ, ST., MT.

PRODI TEKNIK SIPIL
FAKULTAS TEKNIK
UNIVERSITAS PANCASILA
The elements of a large airport are
divided into two major components,
THE AIRSIDE AND THE LANDSIDE.
The aircraft gates at the terminal
buildings form the division between the
two components.

Within the system, the characteristics of

the vehicles, both ground and air, have a
large influence on planning. The
passenger and shipper of goods are
interested primarily in the overall door
to-door travel time and not just the
duration of the air journey. For this
reason access to airports is
an essential consideration in planning.
Many different types of studies are performed in airport planning. These
include studies related to facility planning, financial planning, traffic and markets, economics,
and the environment.

However, each of these studies can usually be classified as being performed at one of three
levels: the
system planning level, the master planning level, or the
project planning level.
Development plan for Chicago O’Hare International Airport
Source: Horonjeff et.al, 2010
Forecasting
Essential step to determine
other design of airport.
•Geometric
•Runways
Airport
Design •Taxiway and
Taxilines
•Aprons

Structural •Soil Investigation

Design and
Drainage •Pavement

Lighting,
Marking
and
Signage

Terminal
Area
 Time series analysis essentially involves
Time series extrapolating or projecting existing historical

Method activity data into the future.

Market share forecasting is a simple top-down

approach, where current activity at an Airport is
Market Share calculated as a share of some other more aggregate

Method measure for which a forecast has been made

(typically a regional, state, or national forecast of
aviation activity).

Econometric modeling is a multistep Process in

Econometric which a casual relationship is established between a

Modelling dependent variable (the item to be forecast) and a

set of independent variables that influence the
demand for air travel.
Time series analysis or extrapolation is based upon an examination of the
historical pattern of activity and assumes that those factors which
determine the variation of traffic in the past will continue to
exhibit similar relationships in the future.

Statistical techniques are used to assist in defining the reliability and

the expected range in the extrapolated trend.

One of the statistical analysis is by using regression.

• Linear
• Exponential
• Polynomial
• How to determine the data into
regression polynomial formula??
• How to estimate the next 10
years??
 𝑛 ෍ 𝑥𝑖 ෍ 𝑥𝑖2
𝑎0 ෍ 𝑦𝑖

෍ 𝑥𝑖 ෍ 𝑥𝑖2 ෍ 𝑥𝑖3 𝑎1 = ෍ 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖

𝑎2 ෍ 𝑥𝑖2 𝑦𝑖2
෍ 𝑥𝑖2 ෍ 𝑥𝑖3 ෍ 𝑥𝑖4

• Eliminasi Gauss/Gauss-Jordan
𝐴1 𝐴2 𝐴3
𝑎0 = 𝑑𝑒𝑡 𝑎1 = 𝑑𝑒𝑡 𝑎2 = 𝑑𝑒𝑡
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
 70
y = 1.8607x2 + 2.3593x + 2.4786
60 R² = 0.9985
50

40

30

20

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6

• Estimasi tahun yang diinginkan berdasarkan formula tersebut.

Tahun Pergerakan
Pesawat/tahun • How to determine the data
2010 12 into regression polynomial
2011 14
formula??
2012 17
2013 15
• Estimasi pergerakan
2014 19 pesawat tahun 2020, 2025,
2015 21
2030?