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Syahrul
16 November 2017
Silabus kuliah
• Spatial statistics
• Estimation
• Simulation
Introduction to Geostatistics
CONTENT
• What is geostatistic?
• Application of spatial statistics
• Basic assumptions in spatial statistics
• Key concepts in geostatistics
• Exploratory data analysis (EDA) for non-spatial
statistics
• Spatial description
Geostatistics
• Geostatistics: branch of statistics that
deal with spatially correlated data
• Basic assumptions:
– Sample values are not independent
– Spatial dependency exists
• Goal of geostatistics:
– Spatial continuity model
– Use the model for estimation and/or
simulation of spatial data distribution
Geostatistics
• Geostatistics Term used by Hart (1952) - Application of
Statistics in a Geographic Context
• Matheron (1962, 1963) Used Term in a Geological
Context for Inferring Ore Reserves from Data Spatially
Distributed Within an Ore Body :
- Developed Theory of Regionalized Variables
– Formal Introduction of New Statistic - the
Semivariogram
– Used Kriging to Obtain Best Estimate of a Property (i.e.
Ore Grade) at Some Location in an Ore Deposit
– Built Theory on Practical Work of Krige (1951, 1960)
Geostatistics
•Mid 1980 to Mid 1990 >> Explosion of 3-D stochastic
(simulation based) reservoir modeling.
Selection of
Model
Appropriate
Estimation or
Stochastic Algorithm
Geostatistic application
• Quantify Uncertainty Using Multiple Geologically and
Statistically Valid Models
Individual
Reservoir
Simulation
Runs Are
Numbered
n
RESERVOIR
1 3
1 FLOW 6
2
SIMULATOR
3
5
4
4 2
5
6 OUTCOME
PROPERTY (PHI, K) (RECOVERY)
DISTRIBUTIONS
Geostatistic application
3D Static Earth Model
Well-log
Geostatistic and Earth Modelling
Limitations of geostatistics
Geostatistics does NOT :
• Create Data or Eliminate the Value of
Obtaining Additional Good Data
• Replace Sound Qualitative
Understanding and Expert Judgment
• Necessarily Save Time, At Least in the
Short Term.
• Work Well as a “Black Box”
Some useful sites
• The central information server for
Geostatistics and Spatial Statistics
http://www.ai-geostats.org/
• gstat: http://www.gstat.org
• ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst:
http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/
arcgisxtensions/geostatistical/
• Geostatistical analysis tutor (Colorado
School of Mines) :
http://uncert.mines.edu/tutor/
Non-spatial statistics
• Mean
• Variance/standard deviation
• Histograms
• Spread/central tendency
• Skewness
Frequency Table
values:
2, 4, 1, 5, 2, 3, 6.9, 2, 5, 7, 2.1, 3.4, 4.2, 2.2, 2.9, 1.7, 3.5, 6.2
Cumulative
Interval Frequency Frequency
1 - 1.999 2 2
2 - 2.999 6 8
3 - 3.999 3 11
4 - 4.999 2 13
5 - 5.999 1 14
6 - 6.999 2 16
7 - 8.000 1 17
Histograms
6
5
frequency
4
3
2
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
data value
relative frequency
0.36
0.30
0.24
0.18
0.12
0.06
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
data value
Histograms
• Shape varies with Number of Bins
• Rule Of Thumb
cumulative frequency
distribution
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
data value
• Examples:
– Grain size, porosity, permeability, etc
Normal Distribution
Frequency
mean grade
mode
median
% %
grade grade
LogNormal Distribution
• Some variables in geology have a
LogNormal Distribution
– Logarithm of values have Normal Distribution
– Sometimes its Logarithm of (value + constant)
f%
f%
grade log-grade
RAW LOG-TRANSFORMED
LogNormal Distribution
Frequency
Grade
Samples
Mining Blocks
Model Blocks
Outliers
• Outlier values may be cut to reduce their
impact on arithmetic mean and estimation
g/t gAu %
2 20,000 1%
4 40,000 3%
3 30,000 2%
7 70,000 4%
90 900,000 58%
15 150,000 10%
10 100,000 6%
20 200,000 13%
Regression line
0. 7
x
Non-spatial statistics
different values of correlation coefficient