PLAN DE GESTION DE OPERACIONES

1.PRONOSTICO
Método de Promedio Simple
PAX (Q) Absoluto
t (Ŷt) et Potencia 2 |e t|/Yt
(Yt) |e t|
Set-16 1 322,793
Oct-16 2 348,140 322,793 25,347 25,347 642,470,409 0.0728
Nov-16 3 347,354 335,467 11,888 11,888 141,312,656 0.0342
Dic-16 4 347,816 339,429 8,387 8,387 70,341,769 0.0241
Ene-17 5 344,868 341,526 3,342 3,342 11,170,635 0.0097
Feb-17 6 360,467 342,194 18,273 18,273 333,895,220 0.0507
Mar-17 7 371,944 345,240 26,704 26,704 713,121,419 0.0718
Abr-17 8 329,666 349,055 - 19,389 19,389 375,916,702 0.0588
May-17 9 371,921 346,631 25,290 25,290 639,584,100 0.0680
Jun-17 10 363,494 349,441 14,053 14,053 197,486,809 0.0387
Jul-17 11 373,877 350,846 23,031 23,031 530,413,142 0.0616
Ago-17 12 403,088 352,940 50,148 50,148 2,514,821,904 0.1244 DAM = 34,223 Unidades
Set-17 13 381,503 357,119 24,384 24,384 594,579,456 0.0639 EMC = 1,754,374,926 Unidades2
Oct-17 14 401,778 358,995 42,783 42,783 1,830,411,417 0.1065
Nov-17 15 396,958 362,051 34,907 34,907 1,218,523,583 0.0879 PEMA = 0.0833 Margen de Error
Dic-17 16 364,985 364,378 607 607 368,692 0.0017
Ene-18 17 445,124 364,416 80,708 80,708 6,513,821,618 0.1813
Feb-18 18 423,497 369,163 54,334 54,334 2,952,151,595 0.1283
Mar-18 19 423,228 372,182 51,046 51,046 2,605,711,131 0.1206
Abr-18 20 395,601 374,868 20,733 20,733 429,837,647 0.0524
May-18 21 425,663 375,905 49,758 49,758 2,475,848,612 0.1169
Jun-18 22 411,550 378,275 33,275 33,275 1,107,257,316 0.0809
Jul-18 23 453,829 379,787 74,042 74,042 5,482,211,033 0.1631
Ago-18 24 477,713 383,006 94,707 94,707 8,969,366,437 0.1983
Set-18 25 386,952
 PLAN DE GESTION DE OPERACIONES
1.PRONOSTICO
Método de Promedios Móviles
PAX (Q) n=3 Absoluto
t et Potencia 2 |e t|/Yt
(Yt) (Ŷt) |e t|
Set-16 1 322,793
Oct-16 2 348,140
Nov-16 3 347,354
Dic-16 4 347,816 339,429 8,387 8,387 70,341,769 0.0241
Ene-17 5 344,868 347,770 - 2,902 2,902 8,421,604 0.0084
Feb-17 6 360,467 346,679 13,788 13,788 190,099,752 0.0382
Mar-17 7 371,944 351,050 20,894 20,894 436,545,307 0.0562
Abr-17 8 329,666 359,093 - 29,427 29,427 865,948,329 0.0893
May-17 9 371,921 354,026 17,895 17,895 320,242,955 0.0481
Jun-17 10 363,494 357,844 5,650 5,650 31,926,267 0.0155
Jul-17 11 373,877 355,027 18,850 18,850 355,322,500 0.0504
Ago-17 12 403,088 369,764 33,324 33,324 1,110,488,976 0.0827 DAM = 20,405 Unidades
Set-17 13 381,503 380,153 1,350 1,350 1,822,500 0.0035 EMC = 655,450,571 Unidades2
Oct-17 14 401,778 386,156 15,622 15,622 244,046,884 0.0389
PEMA = 0.0505 Margen de Error
Nov-17 15 396,958 395,456 1,502 1,502 2,255,003 0.0038
Dic-17 16 364,985 393,413 - 28,428 28,428 808,151,184 0.0779
Ene-18 17 445,124 387,907 57,217 57,217 3,273,785,089 0.1285
Feb-18 18 423,497 402,356 21,141 21,141 446,955,975 0.0499
Mar-18 19 423,228 411,202 12,026 12,026 144,624,676 0.0284
Abr-18 20 395,601 430,616 - 35,015 35,015 1,226,073,568 0.0885
May-18 21 425,663 414,109 11,554 11,554 133,502,619 0.0271
Jun-18 22 411,550 414,831 - 3,281 3,281 10,762,774 0.0080
Jul-18 23 453,829 410,938 42,891 42,891 1,839,637,881 0.0945
Ago-18 24 477,713 430,347 47,366 47,366 2,243,506,379 0.0992
Set-18 25 447,697
 PLAN DE GESTION DE OPERACIONES
1.PRONOSTICO
Método de Suavización Exponencial
α=
PAX (Q) Absoluto
t 0.25 et Potencia 2 |e t|/Yt
(Yt) |e t|
Set-16 1 322,793
Oct-16 2 348,140 322,793 25,347 25,347 642,470,409 0.0728
Nov-16 3 347,354 329,130 18,224 18,224 332,123,288 0.0525
Dic-16 4 347,816 333,686 14,130 14,130 199,662,199 0.0406
Ene-17 5 344,868 337,218 7,650 7,650 58,517,002 0.0222
Feb-17 6 360,467 339,131 21,336 21,336 455,234,731 0.0592
Mar-17 7 371,944 344,465 27,479 27,479 755,104,941 0.0739
Abr-17 8 329,666 351,335 - 21,669 21,669 469,529,108 0.0657
May-17 9 371,921 345,917 26,004 26,004 676,183,818 0.0699
Jun-17 10 363,494 352,418 11,076 11,076 122,670,046 0.0305
Jul-17 11 373,877 355,187 18,690 18,690 349,306,317 0.0500
Ago-17 12 403,088 359,860 43,228 43,228 1,868,686,242 0.1072 DAM = 24,251 Unidades
Set-17 13 381,503 370,667 10,836 10,836 117,423,833 0.0284 EMC = 809,058,645 Unidades2
Oct-17 14 401,778 373,376 28,402 28,402 806,683,308 0.0707 PEMA = 0.0607 Margen de Error
Nov-17 15 396,958 380,476 16,482 16,482 271,644,066 0.0415
Dic-17 16 364,985 384,597 - 19,612 19,612 384,621,872 0.0537
Ene-18 17 445,124 379,694 65,430 65,430 4,281,106,600 0.1470
Feb-18 18 423,497 396,051 27,446 27,446 753,262,297 0.0648
Mar-18 19 423,228 402,913 20,315 20,315 412,708,094 0.0480
Abr-18 20 395,601 407,992 - 12,391 12,391 153,526,629 0.0313
May-18 21 425,663 404,894 20,769 20,769 431,353,865 0.0488
Jun-18 22 411,550 410,086 1,464 1,464 2,142,696 0.0036
Jul-18 23 453,829 410,452 43,377 43,377 1,881,550,804 0.0956
Ago-18 24 477,713 421,296 56,417 56,417 3,182,836,683 0.1181
Set-18 25 435,401
 PRODUCTIVIDAD
La productividad es una medida económica que calcula cuántos bienes
y servicios se han producido por cada factor utilizado (trabajador,
capital, tiempo, costes, etc.) durante un periodo determinado. Por
ejemplo, cuanto produce al mes un trabajador o cuánto produce una
maquinaria.
PRODUCTIVIDAD