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PIPELINE QRA SEMINAR

PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT


SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE
MODELLING

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SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

What is consequence modelling?

• Effects from accident (e.g. release or explosion)

• Strict physical effect (e.g. overpressure from explosion,

flow from release and concentration at distance)

• Overall effect on human safety (e.g. injuries from

overpressure or injuries from toxic concentration)

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SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

• What is included in consequence modelling?

-Dispersion (gas)

-Vaporization and dispersion (liquid to gas)

-Release (flow – liquid and gas)

-Explosion (overpressure)

-Jet fire/pool fire (extent and thermal radiation)

-Toxicity (gas)

-Smoked and gas ingress (buildings)

-Structural integrity

-Domino effects (e.g. BLEVE)

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SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

• Specialized software (specific consequence model) versus

software packages (several consequence models)

• Somewhat a question of wanted level of detail (e.g. urban

area or rural area and topography)

• Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity, stage of

project and time)

• Economical and technological aspects (e.g. costs for license

and knowledge of the software)

• No single best software to solve all problems

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SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

• Different methods and philosophy for consequence

modelling

• Empirical consequence models (based on experiments)

versus CFD models (advanced numerical calculations)

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SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

• Different methods and philosophy for consequence


PHAST from DNVGL
modelling
Canary from QUEST

• Software established by consultant companies, EFFECTS from TNO


authorities, companies (e.g. oil and gas industry and
TRACE from Safer Systems
process industry) and software companies
FRED from Shell
• All of the software listed to the right is empirical
ALOHA from EPA
consequence models

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SOFTWARE: PHAST

• Software package from DNVGL

- Discharge and dispersion models

- Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires,

pool fires and fireballs)

- Explosion models

- Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor

toxic dose)

• Continuously developed for over 30 years

• Used frequently in the oil- and gas industry (e.g. BP,

Total, Maersk and Shell)

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SOFTWARE: PHAST

Strengths of PHAST

• All-round

• Simple (i.e. easy to learn)

• Possibility to connect to SAFETI (QRA software)

Weaknesses of PHAST

• Limitations in congested areas

• Limitations in urban areas (i.e. obstacles and topography)

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SOFTWARE: PHAST

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EXAMPLE OF PHAST

Ringsted, Denmark

- 30’’ gas pipeline

- 80 bar

- shopping centre at 100 meters

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EXAMPLE OF PHAST

- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m2 – injuries from short

exposure) – 130 meter

- Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from

medium exposure) – 100 meter

- Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from

short exposure) – 70 meter

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EXAMPLE OF PHAST

- Flashfire (green - LEL) – 100 meter

- Flashfire (blue - ½ LEL) – 230 meter

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SOFTWARE: ALOHA

• Software (free) from EPA in USA

-Discharge and dispersion models

-Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires,

pool fires and fireballs)

-Explosion models

-Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic

dose)

• Part of the CAMEO software package (i.e. tools for

emergency planning)

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EXAMPLE OF ALOHA

- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m2 – injuries from short

exposure) – 80 meter

- Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from

medium exposure) – 40 meter

- Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from

short exposure) – 30 meter

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EXAMPLE OF ALOHA

- Flashfire (green - LEL) – 340 meter

- Flashfire (blue – ½ LEL) – 500 meter

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SOFTWARE: CFD

• Short for: computational fluid dynamics

• Not a specific software (i.e. group of software)

-CFX CFD from ANSYS

• Uses numerical methods and algorithms to solve and

analyse problems that involve fluid/gas flows

• Could be applicable for wide range of problems

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SOFTWARE: CFD

• Could be applicable for wide range of problems

- Aerodynamics (e.g. aircrafts and cars)

- Hydrodynamics (e.g. ships)

- Power plants (e.g. combustion in gas turbines)

- Process equipment (e.g. flows and loads)

- Process equipment (e.g. heat transfer and cooling)

- Marine structures (e.g. loads)

- Environment (e.g. exhaust and dispersion)

- Hydrology (e.g. flows in rivers and flooding)

- Buildings (e.g. ventilation)

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SOFTWARE: CFD

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SOFTWARE: CFD

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SOFTWARE: CFD

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SOFTWARE: CFD

Strengths of CFD

• Applicable for complex situations (e.g. urban areas and

topography)

Weaknesses of CFD

• Resources (e.g. man-hours, knowledge and economy)

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COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

Method Distance to LEL Distance to ½ LEL


Hand calculations 130 meter (size of fireball)
PHAST 100 meter 230 meter
ALOHA 340 meter 500 meter

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COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE MODELLING

Method Distance to 4 kW/m2 Distance to 12.5 kW/m2 Distance to 37.5 kW/m2


Hand calculations 100 meter (size of flame)
PHAST 130 meter 100 meter 70 meter
ALOHA 80 meter 40 meter 30 meter

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QUESTIONS?

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