Six Sigma

Basic Statistics
GB Module

1
 Continuous Improvement Road Map
Six Sigma

Define
Improve
• Define CTQ
• Determine Current State • Verify Effects of Key
inputs with DOE’s
Analyze • Determine Optimum
• Evaluate Existing Control Plan Settings
Measure • Using statistical methods to
determine potential key inputs
• Determine Key Input / • Prioritize key input variables
Output Variables
• Perform MSA Control
• Calculate initial process
capabilities • Update Control Plan
• Verify Improvements

2
 Customers and Variation
• Customers complain when they believe the product or service they
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receive differs from their expectations; there is variation

• Variation has many faces:
– Missing functionality/actions
– Defects and faults
– Delays etc
• All variation is caused
• Six Sigma is about reducing and controlling variation
• We need to understand variation and the causes of variation
 Causes of Variation
Input (Xs) Process
Output (Ys)
(Xs)
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The variation in Y is caused by variation of the Xs

Therefore we need to understand the Xs and improve
and control the ones with most influence on Y

■ X1 . . . XN ■ Y
■ Independent ■ Dependent
■ Input-Process ■ Output
■ Cause ■ Effect
■ Problem ■ Symptom
■ Control ■ Monitor
 Long Term & Short Term Variation
Short-Term
Variation due to
Process Common causes
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Response

Long-Term Variation
Y

◆Short-Term includes: Special Causes

common cause
variation only

◆Long-Term includes:
common cause &
(some) special EXAMPLE Time
cause variation I drive to work. It takes me 35 +/- 3 minutes. This is the common
cause variation. One day it takes me 50 minutes due to road
works - this is a special cause.
 Examples of Special Causes
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Special causes are assignable and

can include:
Weather (season, time of day)
Lighting Conditions
Process Response

Machine Type
Machine Age
Maintenance
Supplier
Operator
special causes etc…
Time
 Exercise – Special Causes

• Consider the process in your

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project
• Make a list of the potential
special causes
• Be prepared to share your
list with the rest of the group
• Time: 10 Minutes
 Measuring Variation
• Variation is not simple to measure because it is RANDOM
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• Random does not mean erratic! While it may not be possible to

predict what an individual process output is, there is usually a pattern
if we measure a number of outputs
• Process outputs will group together and we are interested in their
central value, the value they group around, and their spread.
• This grouping forms a pattern that is often predictable
 Example
• If a coin is tossed we cannot predict whether it will be a head or
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tail
• If we tossed the coin say 100 times we would expect that on 50
occasions it would be a head and on 50 occasions it would be a
tail
• So there is a pattern - but we cannot predict any individual toss
• We relate the expectations to chance (probability), there is a
50% chance it will be a head
• Randomness is about chance
 Coin Toss Exercise
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• Everyone needs a coin of

some type
• Flip the coin 25 times and
record the number of
“heads”
• Report the total number of
“heads” obtained and
create a dot plot
• Repeat the experiment
• How do the dot plots
compare?
 Randomness and Distributions
• Outputs group together to form a pattern
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• This pattern describes the distribution of the

variation
• We cannot predict where an individual value
will fall, but we can predict the overall pattern
X Distribution
X
X
X X
X X X
X X X X
X X X X X X X X
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Time to deliver
 Real Life and Distributions
• Distributions can be modelled mathematically
• If we collect data from a process or product we
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can “match” it to a distribution and use the

properties of the distribution for analysis and
predictions
Modelled by a
Real situation
distribution

Real Solution Analysis

 Probability Distributions
• Probability • Standard distributions
distributions (normally
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– Attribute data
just called • Binomial
distributions) are a • Poisson

way of being able to – Variable Data

make predictions
about random events
• There are many
“standard”
• Normal (Gaussian)
• Lognormal (skewed)
• Student t
• F-distribution
• Exponential

distributions which
enable us to model
real world variation
 Key Properties of Distributions
Central Tendency: the value the data
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groups around

Spread or dispersion of the values

 Measures of Central Tendency
If the distribution is symmetric
– Mean (mu)
∑ xi
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µ = The mean, median

n and mode have
the same value

– Median
- middle value of ranked
data
If the distribution is NOT symmetric

– Mode The mean, median

- most frequently and mode have
occurring value different values
 Measures of Spread
• Range
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R = Biggest value – smallest value

• The range is susceptible to outlying values,

as a result we need a better measure

• One approach is to calculate the average

deviation from the mean:
Σ (X - µ )
n
 Variance and Standard
Deviation
• The average of the deviations squared is called the variance and is
a measure of spread
1
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V = ∑ ( xi −µ ) 2

• It suffers from having units the same as the mean2. To overcome

this we take the square root to give the standard deviation which
has the symbol σ

σ =
∑ ( xi −µ )2
n a measure of spread
• We use standard deviation as
 Descriptive Statistics
• Can be calculated using Minitab or Excel
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• Gives information about a data set’s central

tendency, spread and shape
 Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive Statistics: Data1
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Variable N Mean Median TrMean StDev SE Mean

Data1 500 56.421 56.355 56.486 5.563 0.249

Variable Minimum Maximum Q1 Q3

Data1 38.260 69.801 52.693 60.227

Central Tendency Spread

Shape
 Computer Exercise!
• Open the file 3L54
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Stone.mpj

• Calculate the Descriptive

Statistics for the data set

• Additionally, create a
graphical descriptive
statistics output
 Descriptive Statistics Result
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 Descriptive Statistics – Graphical
Summary
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 Descriptive Statistics – Graphical
Summary
Descriptive Statistics
Variable: MPH
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Anderson-Darling Normality Test

A-Squared: 0.399
P-Value: 0.360

Mean 42.2730
StDev 9.5282
Variance 90.7857
Skewness 8.53E-02
Kurtosis -4.0E-02
N 126
15 25 35 45 55 65
Minimum 16.9000
1st Quartile 36.6750
Median 42.4500
3rd Quartile 48.0500
95% Confidence Interval for Mu Maximum 65.2000
95% Confidence Interval for Mu
40.5931 43.9530
41 42 43 44 95% Confidence Interval for Sigma
8.4792 10.8755
95% Confidence Interval for Median
95% Confidence Interval for Median
40.5544 43.5000
 Mean and standard deviation tell
us a great deal about a process
Off-Target Measured Spread Measured by
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by the mean the Standard Deviation

X X
XXX X
XX X X
XX
X X X
X
X X
X
X
X
X
X

XXXXXX
XXX X
On Target X XX X Reduce the
Spread
 Distributions and Variation …..
Off-Target Spread
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On Target Reduce the

Spread
 Normal Distribution
• Frequently occurs in practice
• Models random behaviour
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• Shows that the variation groups

around the mean and tails off
• Symmetric about the mean with a
50% chance of falling either side
of the mean
• Is the basis for Six Sigma and
many Six Sigma tools

Mean µ
 Area and Probability
Area under Normal curve = probability or chance of
being in that region
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Area = 1.0 probability = 1.0 or 100%

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Area = 0.5 probability = 0.5 or 50%

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Area = 0.159 probability = 0.159 or15.9%

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
 Area, Probability & Standard
Deviation
Total Area
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The area under the

Normal distribution
100%

34.13%
34.13%
relates to probability

13.59%

13.59%

2.14%
2.14%

0.135%
0.135%

-3σ -2σ -1σ 1σ 2σ 3σ

0.27% lies outside Mean µ
-3σ and + 3σ 99.73% between
-3σ and + 3σ
 A Common Situation
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If we calculate the number of

standard deviations between
the mean and X, we can use
the area results to determine the
probability

Given product
characteristic that is What is the probability
normally distributed that the characteristic
with a mean µ and is greater or
standard deviation σ equal to X?

Mean µ
 Standard Normal Distribution
Tables exist for the probability vs. number of standard deviations
for the case of a “Standard Normal distribution” which has
a mean µ = 0 and a standard deviation σ = 1
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Z value or number of standard deviations

σ =1 Z z .0 0 .0 1 .0 2 .0 3 .0 4 .0 5
0.0 .5000 .4960 .4920 .4880 .4840 .4801
0.1 .4602 .4562 .4522 .4483 .4443 .4404
0.2 .4207 .4168 .4129 .4090 .4052 .4013
Mean =0 X 0.3 .3821 .3783 .3745 .3707 .3669 .3632
0.4 .3446 .3409 .3372 .3336 .3300 .3264
0.5 .3085 .3050 .3015 .2981 .2946 .2912
0.6 .2743 .2709 .2676 .2643 .2611 .2578
Tables exist that give the 0.7 .2420 .2389 .2358 .2327 .2296 .2266
probability of a point
of interest X being 0.8 .2119 .2090 .2061 .2033 .2005 .1977
greater or equal to Z 0.9 .1841 .1814 .1788 .1762 .1736 .1711
1.0 .1587 .1562 .1539 .1515 .1492 .1469
1.1 .1357 .1335 .1314 .1292 .1271 .1251
 P-values are Probabilities of
Interest
• The probability values are often called p-values
– p-value = tail area
– Area under curve beyond point or value of interest
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– Probability of being at value of interest or beyond

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Value of Value of Value of Value of

Interest Interest Interest Interest

• A small p-value (0 to 0.05) indicates

– The probability is small that the value of interest comes from that distribution by chance
– Something else is going on
 Z Values
σ 3
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Z is calculated
using the equation
Mean 10
σ 6.1 σ =1 Z
X-µ
Z= σ
Mean =0 X
Mean 45

σ 1.2
P-value

Mean 7.98
 Using Z Values
A customer demands that a product’s specification is 1.75±0.1 We collect data
from the manufacturing process and find the mean to be 1.735 and σ = 0.0855
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1.65 −1.735 = 1.85 −1.735 =

Z = 0. 994 Z = 1.345
0.0855 0.0855

Note
The sign of the Z value
simply indicates direction
from the mean.

From Standard Normal 1.65 1.85

Mean = 1.735 From Standard Normal
tables Area 0.1611
tables Area 0.0885
σ = 0.0855
Total area in tails 0.1611 + 0.0885 = 0.2496
Area of interest = 1- 0.2496 = 0.75 = yield
 Mini Exercise
Z =?
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Probability that an item

is greater than 1.75?

1.75
Mean = 1.5 From Standard Normal
tables Area/Probability?
σ = 0.25
 Variation and 6-Sigma
µ This is a 6-Sigma
(Process or Product)
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Z= 6.0 Tail Ar
Tail Area
No of Defects No of De
1 in a billion 1 in a bi

Target 1 2 3 4 5 6
LSL Customer Critical Requirements USL

99.9999998%
 Long-Term & Short-Term
Variation
Characteristics or Response
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Short-Term Long-Term
Variation Variation

What the
Customer
Sees
Time

The presence of special causes will act to increase the variation

seen by the customer. A gross assumption is a 1.5 sigma shift.
 1.5 Sigma Shift
µ
This is a Six Sigma
(Process or Product)
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Z= 4.5
1.5σ
Tail Area Tail Area
No of Defects No of Defects
3.4 in a million
0

Target
1 2 3 4 5 6
LSL Customer Critical Requirements USL
99.99966%
 1.5 Sigma Shift Demonstration
• Open Minitab file Glass Strength.mpj
• Calculate the subgroup standard
deviations using Descriptive Statistics
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• Calculate the average standard deviation

across the subgroups
• Stack the subgroups
• Calculate the combined Standard
Deviation of the stacked data
• Divide the standard deviation of the
stacked data by the average standard
deviation of the subgroups.
What did you find?
 Summary
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• In the short term we need a Zst = 6.0 to “guarantee” a

long term Zlt = 4.5

• Note to achieve 3.4 defects per million requires Zlt =

4.5 - we should not strive to achieve Zst = 6.0 if

Zshift = Zst - Zlt < 1.5

 Z values and Sigma levels
• Zst values are related to Sigma levels
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• In 6-Sigma we look at short and long term values: Zst and Zlt
• In 6-Sigma if we cannot calculate long term variation we assume a 1.5 sigma
shift

Zlt = Zst - 1.5

• Note Z-tables generally do not have the 1.5 sigma shift and give Zlt
• Sigma/DPMO tables do have the 1.5 sigma shift and give Zst
 Testing for Normality
• The Normal distribution is important to 6-Sigma since many of the tools
and techniques are affected by Non Normal data
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Tool Consequence

Process sigma Incorrect process sigma

Individuals control chart False detection of special causes

Hypothesis testing Incorrect conclusions

Regression False identification of important factors

poor predictive properties

DOE Incorrect conclusions about important factor

poor prediction abilities
 Effect of not checking Normality average
• Example: Effect of skewed
distribution on calculating the
process Sigma Level
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USL

– Process Sigma Level is determined

by finding the area beyond the What percentage
specification limits using Z-tables falls here?

– If the data is not Normal, the area

will be incorrectly estimated from
the Z-tables and therefore give a
misleading Process Sigma Level
USL

The percentage is
different for the
Normal curve
 Exercise – Normal?
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– Look at each histogram on the

following pages and decide
which data sets come from a
Normal distribution
• Circle or mark the ones you
think are Normal.
– Work in pairs to confirm your
answers
– Be prepared to share your
answers with the whole group
– Time 10 minutes
 Assess Data for Normality
•25 Data Points
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Mark the histograms that you think come from a Normal distribution
 Assess Data for Normality,
cont.
50 Data Points
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Mark the histograms that you think come from a Normal distribution
 Assess Data for Normality,
cont.
100 Data Points
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Mark the histograms that you think come from a Normal distribution
 Exercise : Answers
– Just looking at histograms can be deceptive
• Each of the Histograms on the previous pages were randomly
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generated in Minitab as a Normal distribution with a mean = 50,

and a standard deviation = 10: they are all Normal.

– It is difficult to tell if data is Normal by looking at

histograms of n = 25, n = 50, and sometimes even n = 100

– Plotting the data is very good practice, but do not be misled

by small amounts of data
 Other Distributions
Exponential Poisson Uniform
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25
Sample Size

50

100
 Data Not Normal
• If the data is not Normal there may be reasons
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which can be corrected

– Extreme values, Typographical errors
- correct them Always check
these first!
– Multiple modes - separate them
before
– Data rounded - increase precision concluding
– Not enough data – collect more
– Special causes present – remove them
– Underlying distribution is not normal
 Check for Normal Distribution
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• Both variable and discrete data (if there is enough) can often be
modelled by a Normal distribution
• Many Statistical tools are based upon a normal distribution.
However, many of the statistical tools will produce outputs
even if the data is not normal. These outputs could be
misleading
• Hence one of the first steps having collected data is to check
for normality
• There is a test in Minitab for this
 Normality Test
In a normality test the data
is plotted on “normal
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probability paper” - if the

data follows a straight line
it is normal.

The test also includes

a hypothesis test (see
Week 2). This test provides
a quantitative value as to
whether the data is normal
through the p-value.

If p>0.05 we can say that

the data is normally
distributed
 •
P-values
The p-value is the risk of making the wrong decision - in this case concluding
that the data is not normally distributed when it is.
• In this case the p-value is 54% - a 54% risk of making the wrong decision - in
this case concluding that the data is not normally distributed when it is.
• This risk is too high so we conclude the data is normally distributed
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• We can never be risk free or 100% certain. Hence we need to set a decision
level. Experience shows that this is 5% (or 95% confidence)
• Hence we test to see if p > 0.05 if it is the data is normally distributed
 Using Minitab to Check
for Normality
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 Normality Test Exercise
• Using the data from
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Glass Strength.mpj,
check for normality
for each of the
subgroups
• Then check for
normality on the
combined data
• Be prepared to report
your findings
 Non Normal Distributions
• Having checked the data for typographical errors etc
and concluded that the data is not normally
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distributed progress can still be made

– In some cases of non-normal distributions (typically
Skewed Distributions) it is possible to transform the data
to make it normal
– In some cases the data may be “close enough” to a normal
distribution to use the statistical tools with care
– In some cases it does not matter that the data is not
normally distributed
 Summary
• This ppt has covered
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– Variation
• Common and Special causes, Long and short term data
– Distributions
• Central Value (tendency): mean, median and mode
• Spread or dispersion: range, variance and standard deviation
– Normal Distribution
• Z-values and p-values, Six Sigma, 1.5 Sigma shift and Z-values
• Checking for normality and dealing with Non normal data