Forecasting

Forecast

A statement about the future. It is estimating future by

casting forward past data.

Forecasting helps managers to plan the system.

It helps them plan the use of system.

I see that you will

get an A this semester.

Operations IB&M-UET
 Application of Forecast
Accounting Cost/profit estimates

Finance Funding

Human Resources Hiring/recruiting/training

Marketing Pricing, promotion, strategy

Operations Schedules, MRP, workloads

Product/service design New products and services

Operations IB&M-UET
 Characteristics of Forecast
 Assumes causal system
past => future

 Forecasts rarely perfect because of randomness

Forecast accuracy decreases as time horizon

increases

Forecasts more accurate for groups as compared to

individuals
Operations IB&M-UET
Elements of Good
Forecast

Timely

Reliable Accurate

Written

Operations IB&M-UET
 Steps in Forecasting

“THE FORECAST”

Step 6 Monitor the forecast

Step 5 Prepare the forecast
Step 4 Gather and analyze data
Step 3 Select a forecasting technique
Step 2 Establish a time horizon
Step 1 Determine purpose of forecast
Operations IB&M-UET
 Approaches to Forecast
 Qualitative Method
 Judgmental Forecast
This approach uses subjective inputs

 Quantitative Method
 Time series Forecast
In this approach historical data is used to assume that future
will be like the past
 Associative models
This approach uses explanatory variables to predict the future

Operations IB&M-UET
Qualitative Forecast

 Executive opinions
 Sales force opinions
 Consumer surveys
 Delphi method
Opinions of managers and staff
Achieves a consensus forecast

Operations IB&M-UET
 Forecast Variations
Irregular
variation

Trend

Cycles

90
89
88
Seasonal variations

Operations IB&M-UET
 Time Series Methods

 Naïve Method

 Moving average

 Weighted moving average

 Exponential smoothing

Operations IB&M-UET
 Moving Average
Naïve Methods
It uses single previous value of time series as a basis of a
forecast
Moving average
A technique that averages a number of recent actual values,
updated as new values becomen available.
 At-1
t= 1
Ft =
n
Weighted moving average
More recent values in a series are given more weight in
computing the forecast.
Operations IB&M-UET
 Exponential Smoothing

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

 Weighted averaging method based on
previous forecast plus a percentage of the
forecast error
 A-F is the error term,  is the coefficient of
smoothing/ Smoothing Constant

Operations IB&M-UET
 Linear Trend Equation
Ft

Ft = a + bt

0 1 2 3 4 5 t

Ft = Forecast for period t

t = Specified number of time periods
a = Value of Ft at t = 0
b = Slope of the line
Operations IB&M-UET
 Calculation of ‘a’ and ‘b’

n  (ty) -  t y
b =
n  t 2 - (  t) 2

 y - b t
a =
n

Operations IB&M-UET
Linear Trend Equation
Example
t y
2
Week t Sales ty
1 1 150 150
2 4 157 314
3 9 162 486
4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885

 t = 15 t = 55  y = 812  ty = 2499

2
2
(t) = 225
Operations IB&M-UET
Linear Trend Equation
Example
5 (2499) - 15(812) 12495 -12180
b = = = 6.3
5(55) - 225 275 -225

812 - 6.3(15)
a = = 143.5
5

Ft = 143.5 + 6.3t
Operations IB&M-UET
 Forecast Accuracy
 Error
Difference between actual value and predicted
value
 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Average absolute error
 Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Average of squared error
 Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
Average absolute percent error

Operations IB&M-UET
 Forecast
Accuracy
 Actual - Forecast
MAD =
n

 ( Actual
2
- Forecast)
MSE =
n -1

( Actual - Forecast / Actual*100)

MAPE =
n
Operations IB&M-UET
 Example
Period Actual Forecast (A-F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 (|A-F|/Actual)*100
1 217 215 2 2 4 0.92
2 213 216 -3 3 9 1.41
3 216 215 1 1 1 0.46
4 210 214 -4 4 16 1.90
5 213 211 2 2 4 0.94
6 219 214 5 5 25 2.28
7 216 217 -1 1 1 0.46
8 212 216 -4 4 16 1.89
-2 22 76 10.26

MAD= 2.75
MSE= 10.86
MAPE= 1.28
Operations IB&M-UET
 Class Exercise

An Aluminum extruder forecasted the demand for

a shower stall extrusion to be 50 per week for
each of three weeks. The actual demand turned
out to be 40, 52 and 58. Calculate MAD, MSE
and MAPE.

Operations IB&M-UET