Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
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Climate Trends
and projected
Climate Change
in the Philippines
John A. Manalo
Impact Assessment and Application Section,
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
PAGASA-DOST
john.manalo1234@gmail.com
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Outline
• Observed Trends: Global and the Philippines
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Distinguishing the difference
Weather Climate
• Is a specific meteorological • The average weather
event or condition that conditions over a long
happens over a period of period of time (typically 30
hours or a few days. years).
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Source: http://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/
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Weather and climate information being provided by PAGASA
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Agusan del Norte is located
in the Northeastern part of
Mindanao
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Climate type II – It has a very pronounced maximum rain period from
December to February with no dry Season
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Example: Air temperature over five days
weather or climate?
weather
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Example: Air temperature over five years
Climate variability or climate change?
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What is Climate variability?
Climate variability refers to shorter term
fluctuations in climate such as those caused by
the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Phenomenon.
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El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO)
El Niño La Niña
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov
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El Niño affects several regions across the globe
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Some of the
Impacts of El
Niño in the
Philippines
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Some of the Impacts of La Niña in
the Philippines
ST. BERNARD
LANDSLIDE
Feb 2006
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Factors causing climate variability in the
Philippines
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The SW and NE monsoon in the Philippines
June-July-August October-November-December
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Tropical cyclone occurrence
(based on 1951–2013 data of PAGASA)
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Seasonality of tropical cyclone entering the PAR
(based on 1951–2013 data of PAGASA)
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Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
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Frequency of Tropical Cyclones which crossed the Agusan
del Norte for the period 1948 to 2016
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Climate Change?
Is that really happening?
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Why Do We Need To
Know About Climate
Change?
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We need to
understand the kind of
changes that are
taking place and the
way it will affect us
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Climate change defined:
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Difference
GLOBAL WARMING CLIMATE CHANGE
is the increase of the is a broader term that
Earth’s average surface refers to long-term
temperature due to a changes in climate,
build-up of greenhouse including average
gases in the temperature and
atmosphere. precipitation.
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Human influence on global warming
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Global_warming
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Anthropogenic role in warming
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Bindoff et al. 2013
Sources of greenhouse gases
Greenhouse Atmospheric
Natural Sources Human-Induced Sources
Gas Lifetime
Carbon Soils (biological Burning of fossil fuels 5-200 years
Dioxide(Co2) processes)
Transport
Ocean
industries
Land-use changes
Methane Wetlands Flooded rice agriculture 12-17 years
CH4
Termites Livestock production
Ocean Waste management system
(landfills, etc.)
Nitrous Oxides Tropical soils Nitrogen-based fertilizers and 12-17 years
(wet forests) chemicals
Ocean Industrial sources
CFC Molecules None Coolants 45 years
Sealants
Insulations
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Human activities produce greenhouse gases
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Global warming: Indicative of climate change
Is Global Temperature Rising?
0.85°C
1880-2012
(IPCC AR5)
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Global warming: Indicative of anthropogenic
climate change
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Declining Arctic sea ice extent
Source: US-EPA
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Global warming: Indicative of climate change
Is Global Temperature Rising?
Earth’s Long Term (1880-2016) Warming Trend (5-year average)
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2016 global mean temperature is the highest
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Ten Warmest Years (1880–2017)
RANK: 1880–
YEAR ANOMALY °C ANOMALY °F
2017
1 2016 0.94 1.69
2 2015 0.90 1.62
3 2017 0.84 1.51
4 2014 0.74 1.33
5 2010 0.70 1.26
6 2013 0.67 1.21
7 2005 0.66 1.19
8 2009 0.64 1.15
9 1998 0.63 1.13
10 2012 0.62 1.12
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for Annual
2017, published online January 2018, retrieved on July 23, 2018
from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201713.
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Latest from WMO
DOST-PAGASA
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What are the Observed
Climate Trends in the
Philippines ?
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Observed climate trends in the Philippines:
Over the past 65 years (1951-2015),
a 0.68˚C increase in annual mean
temperature has been observed
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Wetting/drying tendency of annual total
rainfall in the Philippines (1951-2010)
• Parts of central and
northern Luzon
• Northeastern and
southwestern sections
Mindanao
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Increasing and decreasing trends in
seasonal rainfall (1951-2010)
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov
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Increasing number of hot days and
decreasing cold nights
Hot days Cold Nights
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Increasing frequency of
extreme rainfall events (1951–2010)
Intensity Frequency
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Slightly decreasing in number of Tropical
Cyclones TCs
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Slightly increasing number of intense TCs
(maximum sustained winds >170kph)
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Will those changes
continue in the future?
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Understanding the difference
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Understanding how
Climate
Projections
are made
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Modeling the climate system
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Growth of Climate Modeling
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© Crown copyright
The Weather Met Office
and Climate Authority PAGASA
Different scenarios
SRES - Special Report on RCP – Representative
SCENARIO
A1, A2, B1, B2 families RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 (Wm-2)
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SRES vs RCP
Rising radiative
RCP 8.5
forcing pathway
leading to 8.5 W/m²
Comparison of CO2 concentrations from in 2100.
SRES (A1B, A1FI, A2, B1) and
Stabilization without
RCP (RCP 3, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 8.5) overshoot pathway
RCP 6
to 6 W/m² at
stabilization after
2100
Stabilization without
overshoot pathway
RCP 4.5
to 4.5 W/m² at
stabilization after
2100
Peak in radiative
RCP 2.6
forcing at ~ 3 W/m²
before 2100 and
decline
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Downscaling:
Regional Climate
Modeling(RCM)
GCM lack regional details due to
coarse resolution for many climate
studies -> needs fine scale
information to be derived from
GCM output.
Impact assessors need regional detail to
assess vulnerability and possible
adaptation strategies
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New experiments using different RCMs
PRECIS
CCAM
RegCM4
HadGEM3-RA
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Projected Annual Mean Temperature Change*
SUMMARY of CHANGES
Scenario Mid-21st century End of the 21st century
(2036-2065) (2070-2099)
A1B +1.4 to +2.0 +2.7 to +3.8
RCP4.5 +0.9 to +1.9 +1.3 to +2.5
1.2°C
0.9°C
1.6°C – 2.3°C
1.9°C
1.4°C (2036-2065)
2.0°C+1.2(2036-2065)
RCP8.5
to +2.3
(2030-2059)
+2.5 to +4.1
12 model
7 model
MDGF
SEACAM – SRES A1B
simulations
simulations*
Report
Report
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Projected changes in seasonal total rainfall by the Mid-21st
Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov
Wettest
Possible
Median
Driest
Possible
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Possible risk associated with
increased/enhanced rainfall in the future
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Possible risk associated with drier
condition in the future
Source: http://opinion.inquirer.net
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Projected future change in tropical
cyclones to affect the Philippines
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Some of the Impacts of strong tropical cyclones
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So, what can we do now to
make our families, communities,
businesses, and our whole
locality resilient to
climate variability and change?
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Link of DRR and CCA
Climate Change Disaster Risk
Adaptation: Management
Other events
Changes in Changes in Direct connection (e.g.
Sea Level mean Precipitation technological,
Rise Temperature patterns terrestrial
Hazards that are
associated with
extreme events
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Climate Change Impacts
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Projected changes in seasonal rainfall over Agusan del Norte by the
Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario
Wettest
Possible
Most Likely
Driest
Possible
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Acknowledgements
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Thank you!
Contact us:
Impact Assessment and Application Section
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, DOST-PAGASA
+632-434-58-82/434-8130
Thelma A. Cinco
email: telacebes@yahoo.com
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH
@dost_pagasa
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