Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
27 July 2009
Molly K. Macauley
Economic Growth
• Defined and measured as output per capita overtime
• Widely acknowledged as an imperfect definition and hard to measure
• Often incorrectly equated with ‘number of jobs’
– Example: Increase jobs simply by replacing bulldozers with people and shovels but may
not contribute to economic growth
– Example: Increase ‘high-skilled’ jobs but usually implies loss of other jobs; ambiguous
outcome for growth
• As conventionally defined omits or only indirectly reflects value of:
– public goods (for example, national security, freedom of expression,
Yellowstone and other national parks, research and development)
– improvements or reductions in quality of public health and the environment
– value of many benefits commonly attributed to space activities (for example,
as given in forthcoming NRC “America’s Future in Space” study: new
knowledge, inspiration, ‘cultural enrichment,’ ‘strategic leadership’,
‘stewardship of earth’)
– Can tangle causality (growth may foster freedom of expression and vice
versa)
• In short, may underestimate or overestimate ‘quality of life’
Redefine economic growth as ‘productivity’
or
‘vitality of the economy’
• Easier to discuss what influences economic vitality
• Influenced markedly by
– Technological progress
• Defined as resulting from something in-between (Mokyr, 2005)
(a) unexplainable (even ‘miraculous’) and
(b) the ‘rational and purposeful application of R&D’ and ‘growth of
complementary human and physical capital’
• Further defined as knowledge
– Institutions and governance (domestic and other countries’ markets,
competition, cooperation; international trade; and restraints on
these)
– Information (information itself, and the free flow of information)
Previous studies of the contribution of
space activities to economic growth
• Summaries and references in: Reinventing NASA (CBO, 1994),
Encouraging Private Investment in Space Activities (CBO,1991),
The NASA Program in the 1990s and Beyond (CBO,1988), How
Federal Spending for Infrastructure and Other Public
Investments Affects the Economy (CBO,1991)
• Reinventing NASA (1994)
– Management and procurement reform, new relationships
with the private sector, intragovernmental coordination
and international cooperation
– The ‘breaking bow wave’ of an inadequate NASA budget
for the coming decade
– Acknowledging different perspectives on the benefit of
people in space
– The problem of cost overruns
Reinventing NASA (CBO,1994)
• Findings related to short- and long-run economic growth
– “NASA’s spending does not have a uniquely large short-term effect on the US
economy; all federal spending for goods and services tends to stimulate the
economy temporarily, increasing growth and employment for a short time
(unless at full employment)”
– “Under certain conditions, NASA’s expenditures could have a slightly larger or
smaller short-run effect on the growth of the economy and on employment
compared with federal spending overall
• Slightly larger - although still temporary - if concentrated in industrial
sectors or regions with high unemployment
• Slightly smaller - and still temporary - if in industries with high value
added per worker
• On balance, nothing suggests that unique aspects of NASA’s spending
cause it to affect the economy differently from other types of federal
spending for goods and services”
– ‘Multiplier’ effects (returns to the economy for every $1 spent) incorrectly
model diffusion of NASA spending to be like that of R&D in health and
agriculture
– ‘Spinoffs’ are a problematic measure because an alternative may have been
devised, possibly at lower cost and sooner
– Not in the report, but additionally: Counting on spinoffs to justify investment
is not a sound approach; can justify pretty much any investment on such a
basis
Economic vitality: role of competition
• Significantly less domestic competition within traditional aerospace industry
– Restricts government’s choices; few alternatives if government is not satisfied; limits
government’s ability to reduce cost
– May lessen creativity and innovation that contribute to economic growth
• Yes, if traditional industry prefers status quo and uses ‘rent-seeking’ (redistributes wealth
rather than creates it)
• No, if healthy internal corporate R&D budget and ability to ‘appropriate’ return on a new idea
(therefore, have incentive to come up with a new idea)
• Increase in opportunities from new people and ideas, outside of traditional
industry
– Return to Lindbergh/Goddard era of risk taking, private wealth
• Response by government and traditional sector?
– History of technological progress emphasizes that “protection of innovators and
entrepreneurs… [is] of central importance …” (Mokyr, 2005)
– Some suggest NIH-like centers of excellence (see Major General James Armor,
comments at “A Day Without Space,” 16 Oct 2008)
– Some suggest ARPA-S (forthcoming NRC report) – sort of “back to the future” since
part of DoD’s ARPA in 1958 was transferred to NASA in 1960
Economic vitality: role of
international ‘coopetition’*
• Fortune Magazine, 1990s “100 Things America Makes Best” –
communications satellites
• Now, “Buy America” advantages are much less clear for a host
of space activities
• “Not made here” gives us more choice (consumers of space
services benefit from international competition)
• What are ‘appropriate opportunities for international
collaboration’ (charge to the Augustine II panel)
• …..And what are not – competition can be a very very good
thing
• Some guidelines
– “absolute advantage” and “comparative advantage”
– “coopetition” – blending cooperation and competition as in
practices of multinational corporations
* Luo, 2004
Economic vitality:
role of information and
information infrastructure
An illustration at the intersection of the
Administration’s objectives for reshaping the nation’s
energy markets and climate policy
Role of Earth observations data and ongoing R&D for how best to use
them
– Renewable energy: in mapping and managing renewable energy
resources (see CCSP, 2008)
– New roles for agencies: in supporting regulatory and statutory
responsibilities (see Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007,
Section 712)
– Informing climate policy and leveraging emerging (Europe) and
possible (US, other) related markets (see H.R. 2454, The American
Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009)
Two examples: GHG trading and offsets
Example 2:
“offsets” and forest carbon
• Above-ground carbon
– Tropical forests: 300 billion tons
– Old-growth forests: 0.3 to 0.5 billion tons
– Back-of-the envelope: about $44 billion (with CO2 trading
at $110/ton, 2008, European Climate Exchange)
• Information leverages dollars. Earth observations
data are essential to inform carbon measurement
and markets.
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Space Technology Characteristics
Space research has focused on developing
and perfecting technologies and processes to
unprecedented levels, characterized by:
Low weight
Strength and durability
Efficiency and reliability
Compactness
Temperature resistance
Radiation resistance
Corrosion resistance
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Space Technologies in Our Life
TV Satellite Dish
Medical Imaging
Ear Thermometer
Scratch-resistant Lenses
Firefighter Equipment
Aircraft Ice Protection
System
Smoke Detector
Laser Eye Surgery
Equipment Memory Foam
Courtesy to NASA
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AIAA Emerging Space Technologies
AIAA’s Emerging Technology Committee issued the
10-hot technologies for future aerospace
Advanced Materials, such as nanotechnology and composites
used in space flight
Remote Sensing Technology, including UAVs and Satellites in
GEOSS
UAVs outfitted with special sensors to help scientists collect data,
predict hurricane's intensity, track fast Arctic summer ice will melt,
etc.
Advanced Space Propulsion Technology, including plasma-based
propulsion
Commercially useful for boosting communication satellites and
other Earth-orbiting spacecraft to higher orbits, retrieving and
servicing spacecraft in high orbits around the Earth, and boosting
high-payload robotic spacecraft on very fast missions to other
planets
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Technology Spin-offs at ESA & JAXA
36
What we see at AIAA
Space related technical papers
Professional members
domestic vs. int’l
Aging domestic membership
Engineers in the “pipeline”
Space programs
Fundamental researches
Very long lead time
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Douglas Comstock
Director, Innovative Partnerships Program,
NASA
SPACE:
Stimulating Economic Growth Today and Tomorrow
Doug Comstock
Director, Innovative Partnerships Program - NASA
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http://www.sti.nasa.gov/spinoff/database
Outreach & Publications
http://www.sti.nasa.gov/tto/
http://www.sti.nasa.gov/spinoff/
http://www.techbriefs.com/ searchrecord
Electronics & Computers http://ipp.nasa.gov/innovation/
Semiconductors & ICs
index.html
Mechanics
Information Sciences
Materials Software
Manufacturing & Prototyping
Machinery & Automation
Visit us at
Physical Sciences
Bio-Medical Test & Measurement ipp.nasa.gov
NASA @ Home & NASA City
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www.nasa.gov
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