MB2101 Decision Making

Selecting Alternatives
MUST and WANTS
Tutorial Session
Tuesday, 14 August 2016
We are in this step……
 Objective……

Understand the step by step process of selecting

alternative by using MUST and Want
Comprehend the use of MUST and WANT in IBE
project case
Decision Analysis using :
MUST and WANTS
 Steps in Decision Analysis

• Define your decision making objective

• Identify the criteria you need to be fulfilled
(MUSTS) and relative criteria (WANTS)
• Use some supporting data to quantify the relative
criteria (weight and score)
• Do benefit and consequence analysis for relative
criteria
• Get the decision based on the analysis result
 Decision Analysis using :
MUST and WANTS Technique
• A simple technique to select the best alternative
• Steps of Benefit:
– Identify MUSTS and WANTS alternative criteria
– Omit the alternative which is not fulfilled MUSTS criteria
– Identify the weight for WANTS criteria: (0-5)
– Identify the score for every WANTS criteria and for
alternative criteria (score = the important of WANTS
criteria) (0-10)
– Calculate the weight x score for every alternative
– Count the total score for every alternative
 MUSTS
• Complimentary to fulfilled
• Used to be a Quantitative statement
– Price < 3 Bio
– Land Area > 300m2
WANTS
• Not necessarily be fulfilled (relative)
• Used to be Qualitative statement (subjective,
needs of data)
– I want to buy a house which is close to my office
– I want to buy a house which is close to my school
 Identify WANTS Weight Criteria
• Example:
– Close to the office
– Close to School
• I prefer to buy a house which is close to the office than
close to school

– Close to the office= 5

– Close to School= 3
Case Example:
BUYING A HOUSE
 Case Example: BUYING A HOUSE

• MUST criteria:
– House price < IDR 500 mio
– Must be > 2 bedrooms available
• WANTS criteria :
– Close to the Office
– Close to School
• Founded two alternatives: House A, B, and C
 Case Example: BUYING A HOUSE
Criteria House A House B House C

Must Criteria

Price ≤ Rp 500 mio Rp 380 mio Rp 445 mio Rp 550 mio

Decision Go Go Not Go

Bedrooms > 2 3 3 4

Decision Go Go Go
Relative/ Weight
Weight x Weight x Score
Want Weight Score Score x Score
Score Score
Criteria
Close to
5 4 20 3 15 NA NA
the Office
Close to
3 3 9 4 12 NA NA
School
Total of Weight *
29 27 NA
Score
 MUSTS and WANTS Technique:
Consequence
• Step of Consequence :
– Identify the consequence criteria from the
alternatives
– Define the level of significance if the consequence
criteria occurred : -1 to -5 (-1=not so critical, -5= very
critical)
– Define the level of possibility the consequence criteria
will occurred: 1 to 5 (1= not possible, 5= possibly
happened)
– Calculate level of significance x possibility for every
alternatives
– Count the total score for every alternatives
 Example : Consequences

• Two Consequences Criteria

– Robbery
– Road extension
 Example of Consequences
Criteria House A House B House C

Total Weight * Score

29 27 NA
Relative Criteria
Level of Level of
Level of
Consequence
Significance
Possibility Significance Possibility Significance NA
* Possibility * Possibility

Stolen -1 4 -4 3 -3 NA

Road
-4 2 -8 1 -4 NA
Extension
Total of Level of
-12 -7 NA
Significance * Possibility

Total Final Score 17 20 NA

 MB2101 Decision Making
Individual Case Exercise :
MUST and WANTS
Hunting Equipment
 The Story…… (1)
• Richard Will go hunting birds in the forest. He
needs a weapon to help him to get some birds
• He considered that safety, inexpensive, and easy
to build as the factor that very important for him
in the weapon that he will use. Another
additional characteristic that was considered
from the weapon are :
– Easy to use
– Attractive appearance
– Long range
– Accuracy
– Speed
 The Story…… (2)
• Richard also allocated weight of 9 to easy to
use, 7 to long range, 6 to attractive
appearance, accuracy, and speed.
• There are six alternatives weapon that Richard
considered :
1. Catapult
2. Mortar
3. Ballista
4. Crossbow
5. Large Sling Shoot
6. Hand Bazooka
 1. Catapult
A catapult is a ballistic device
used to launch a projectile a
great distance about 2000-3000
yards without the aid of
explosive devices with 75%
accuracy and 645 ft/s velocity.
It has proven that catapult is to
be one of the most safety device
to shoot. You can make one of
these catapults with just a few
pieces of wood and a little bit of
know how so you doesn’t spend
a lot of cost to get this weapon
 2. Mortar
A mortar is a weapon that fires
explosive projectiles known as
(mortar) at low velocities. It is
not a dangerous weapon but
will produce some explosive
and smoke. It systems consist of
three components so it’s easy
to build and inexpensive. It
distance about 1000-1200 yards
with 85% accuracy and 700 ft/s
velocity.
 3. Ballista
It was an ancient missile weapon that
launched a large projectile at a
distant target. It hard to built because
using different mechanics, using two
levers with torsion springs instead of
a prod the springs consisting of
several loops of twisted skeins. It not
too dangerous can projected heavy
darts or spherical stone projectiles of
various sizes for siege warfare and
inexpensive.
It distance about 500-1500 yards with
45% accuracy and 400 ft/s velocity.
 4. Crossbow
A crossbow is a bow mounted on a stick with a
mechanism in it which holds the drawn
bowstring. This tool is inexpensive. The
designs featured is complicated because there
are slot in the stock, down into which the
string was placed. To shoot this design, a
vertical rod is thrust up through a hole in the
bottom of the notch, forcing the string out.
This rod is usually attached perpendicular to a
rear-facing lever called a trigger or "tickler“. It
dangerous because could shoot up to three
talents (78 kg), possibly much more.
It distance about 3200 yards with 85%
accuracy and 1300 ft/s velocity.
 5. Large Sling shot
The large sling shoot is fitted with
two mounting points and comes
with 40 rounds of steel shot.
A sling shot become an efficient
hunting tool that easy to build
and inexpensive because you can
make it from the tree branches.
It distance about 1500yards with
50% accuracy and 1500 ft/s
velocity.
 6. Hand Bazooka
Hand Bazooka is the common
name for a man-portable
safety recoilless antitank rocket
launcher weapon, widely
fielded by the United States
Army. It expensive weapon that
have complicated structures
but is effective weapon to
shoot against buildings and
tank.
It distance about 4000 yards
with 97% accuracy and 1800
ft/s velocity.
• Richard then rated the easy to use and attractive appearance of
each weapon alternatives such presented in the table below
Catapult Mortar Ballista Crossbow Large sling Hand
shot Bazooka
Easy to use 7 8 9 6 5 9
Attractive
9 8 4 7 6 7
appearance
• Richard health nowadays is not really good, something wrong with his
lungs. As the consequence, using weapon that produces smoke and
dust will be dangerous for his health. Since this condition is critical, -5
for the level of significant. Smoke possibility is twice more serious then
dust from woods. Put 2 possibility for the weapons are causing dust
and 4 for the weapons causing smoke.
• USA government limited the production and use of weapon nowadays
because increasing of criminality by civilian who owned weapon. For
the hunter, they need to register their weapon first to the nearest
police office before use it. The less accurate the weapon the more
difficult the process, with possibility 1, 2, and 4 . The level of significant
from this policy is 3 points better than health condition.
• The weapon that offer until 1200 yard
distance, you give score = 5. Until 1500 yard
give score = 6, and more than 1500 yard will
be given score 8
• The weapon that offer accuracy until 50%, you
will be give score = 5, until 75% you will give
score =7, and more than 75% you will give
score = 8
• The weapon that offer speed until
700 ft/s you will give score 6 and
more than that you give score 8.
 Instruction

Based on the information and description

above, determine which weapon that Richard
should choose by using must and wants !
 Answer
Must Criteria:
Safety
Inexpensive
Easy
Relative/ Want Catapult Mortar Ballista Crossbow Large sling Hand
Criteria Score shot Bazooka

Easy to use 7 8 9 6 5 9

Attractive
9 8 4 7 6 7
appearance

Long Range 8 5 6 8 6 8

Accuracy 7 8 5 8 5 8

Speed 6 6 6 8 8 8
 Must
Criteria Catapult Mortar Ballista Crossbow Large sling Hand
shot Bazooka
Must
Safety ✔ ✔ ✔ ✖ ✔ ✔

Inexpensive ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Easy ✔ ✔ ✖ ✖ ✔ ✖

Decision Go Go Not Go Not Go Go Not Go

 Want
Want
Mortar Large Sling Shot
Catapult

Criteria Weight Score WxS Score WxS Score WxS

Easy to use 9 7 63 8 72 5 45
Attractive
6 9 54 8 48 6 36
appearance
Long Range 7 8 56 5 35 6 42

Accuracy 6 7 42 8 48 5 30

Speed 6 6 36 6 36 8 48

Total WxS 251 239 201

 Consequences
Criteria Catapult Mortar Large Sling Shot
Total Weight x 251 239 201
Score Relative
Criteria
Consequences Level of Possibility LoS x P Possibility LoS x Possibility LoS x P
Significance (P) P
(LoS)
Health Problem -5 2 -10 4 -20 2 -10
Weapon -2 2 -4 1 -2 4 -8
Ownership Policy
Total Level of -14 -22 -18
Significance x
Possibility
Total Score 237 217 183
 Conclusion
Finally Richard choose to use Catapult because
of fulfilling must criteria, high total point in want
criteria, and with the highest final score after
minus consequences for 237 points.
 Announcement
• 21 September 2016 will be your QUIZ DAY
both in Auditorium and Tutorial Class
• There will be no assignment for today other
than your deadlines for 17th Sept 2016 Survey
Company Report and 24th Sept 2016 SMART
Company Report.
• Prepare yourself with the materials we have
learned so far because Quiz & RAT worth 10%
for your total DM score!
Thank You