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  • Online Mini-Lecture:: DR Andy Evans

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    The reproducibility of psychological science has become an important topic of debate. In an intriguing recent article, Scheibehenne et al. [1] advocate the use of Bayesian evidence synthesis as a new way to reconcile inconsistent findings in social psychology. As a case in point, they use Goldstein et al.'s [2] “hotel towel” study, a highly cited experiment illustrating the power of social norms in encouraging environmental conservation. Yet, because several recent experiments have failed to reproduce the study's original findings, Scheibehenne et al. [1] make a strong case for the need for better evidence synthesis. In doing so, they reveal an important finding, while none of the individual studies show strong support for the efficacy of social norms in encouraging hotel towel reuse, when combined and reanalyzed using a Bayesian approach, the studies jointly provide strong evidential support for the claim that normative information can encourage positive behavior change. Accordingly, Scheibehenne et al. [1] conclude that Bayesian evidence synthesis is a promising meta-analytic approach (p. 1045).

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    The reproducibility of psychological science has become an important topic of debate. In an intriguing recent article, Scheibehenne et al. [1] advocate the use of Bayesian evidence synthesis as a new way to reconcile inconsistent findings in social psychology. As a case in point, they use Goldstein et al.'s [2] “hotel towel” study, a highly cited experiment illustrating the power of social norms in encouraging environmental conservation. Yet, because several recent experiments have failed to reproduce the study's original findings, Scheibehenne et al. [1] make a strong case for the need for better evidence synthesis. In doing so, they reveal an important finding, while none of the individual studies show strong support for the efficacy of social norms in encouraging hotel towel reuse, when combined and reanalyzed using a Bayesian approach, the studies jointly provide strong evidential support for the claim that normative information can encourage positive behavior change. Accordingly, Scheibehenne et al. [1] conclude that Bayesian evidence synthesis is a promising meta-analytic approach (p. 1045).

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Scarica in formato PPT, PDF, TXT o leggi online su Scribd
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    25 visualizzazioni10 pagine

    Online Mini-Lecture:: DR Andy Evans

    Caricato da

    isaias.prestes
    The reproducibility of psychological science has become an important topic of debate. In an intriguing recent article, Scheibehenne et al. [1] advocate the use of Bayesian evidence synthesis as a new way to reconcile inconsistent findings in social psychology. As a case in point, they use Goldstein et al.'s [2] “hotel towel” study, a highly cited experiment illustrating the power of social norms in encouraging environmental conservation. Yet, because several recent experiments have failed to reproduce the study's original findings, Scheibehenne et al. [1] make a strong case for the need for better evidence synthesis. In doing so, they reveal an important finding, while none of the individual studies show strong support for the efficacy of social norms in encouraging hotel towel reuse, when combined and reanalyzed using a Bayesian approach, the studies jointly provide strong evidential support for the claim that normative information can encourage positive behavior change. Accordingly, Scheibehenne et al. [1] conclude that Bayesian evidence synthesis is a promising meta-analytic approach (p. 1045).

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    di 10

    Programming for

    Geographical Information Analysis:


    Advanced Skills

    Online mini-lecture: Introduction to Bayesian


    statistics and networks
    Dr Andy Evans
    Bayesian Networks
    Of course, it may be that we see people in one
    state, and their actions, but have no way of
    replicating the rulesets in human language.
    In this case, we can generate a Bayesian
    Network.
    These gives probabilities that states will
    occur together.
    They allow you to update the probabilities
    on new evidence.
    They allow you to chain these “rules”
    together to make inferences.
    Bayesian Networks

    The probability of an event A is equal to the probability of A


    given some other event B, plus the probability of A given B
    doesn’t happen.

    P(A) = P(AB) + P(ABc) 1 – P(B)


    P(A) = P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|Bc)P(Bc)

    Where A|B is the probability of A happening, given B


    Bayesian Networks
    For example, say we want to predict the likelihood we have a
    republican (“GOP”) president starting a war.
    We can calculate the likelihood of a war…

    P(War) = P(WarGvnGOP)P(GOP) + P(WarGvnDemocrat)P(Democrat)

    0.70 = 0.66 * 0.64 + 0.76 * 0.36


    Bayesian Networks
    Equally, though the probability of an event happening, given
    some other event, is the probability of both events
    happening, divided by the probability of the other event
    happening.
    P (B|A) = P(BA) / P(A)
    P (B|A) = P(B)P(A|B)/P(A)

    If we have “A” we can use this to calculate B given A.


    Bayesian Networks
    For example, if we have a war, we can use this to calculate the
    probability we also have a republican president.

    P(GOPGvnWar) = P(GOP)P(WarGvnGOP)/P(War)
    0.6 = (0.64 * 0.66) / 0.7

    If a war occurred, we know the probability of that happening, which


    means we can plug it into the equation to get the probability we
    have a GOP president. If we’re having a war, and we can also use
    this as the P(GOP) to calculate the probability of another war:
    P(War) = P(WarGvnGOP)P(GOP) + P(WarGvnDemocrat)P(Democrat)
    Bayesian statistics
    Or, more generally…

    Pr(Bx|A) = Pr(Bx)Pr(A|Bx) Pr(GOPGvnWAR) =Pr(GOP)Pr(WARGvnGOP)


    ΣPr(Bi)Pr(A|Bi) ΣPr(CAUSES)Pr(WARGvnCAUSES)
    Pr(A)

    Where Bi is all the potential causes (or things that must happen in
    order for A to occur) and Bx is the specific thing we are testing for.

    ie. Pr(B|A) = Probability of possible Cause B given A.


    Pr(A|B) = Probability of A given possible Cause B.
    Uses
    Bayesian stats used to control:
    Help systems.
    Amazon recommendations.

    Given a series of situations, and previous responses, what is the likelihood


    of a response being needed given this situation.

    Also, other types of systems that learn solutions and predict


    answers: i.e. AI.

    Possible uses:
    Flood gate control.
    Land use planning.
    Policy making.
    Bayesian Networks
    In a Bayesian Network the states are linked by probabilities,
    so:

    If A then B; if B then C; if C then D

    Not only this, but this can be updated when an event A


    happens, propagating the new probabilities by using the new
    final probability of B to recalculate the probability of C, etc.
    Expert Systems
    All these elements may be brought together in an “Expert
    System”.
    These are decision trees, in which rules and probabilities link
    states.
    Forward chaining: you input states and the system runs
    through the rules to suggest a most scenario of action.
    Backward chaining: you input goals, and the system tells you
    the states you need to achieve to get there.
    Don’t have to use Fuzzy Sets or Bayesian probabilities, but
    often do.

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