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Chapter 3
Probability
Learning Objectives
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Number of Tosses
Events, Sample Spaces,
and Probability
Experiments & Sample Spaces
1. Experiment
• Process of obtaining an observation, outcome or
simple event
2. Sample point
Sample Space
• Most basic outcome of an
Depends on
experiment Experimenter!
3. Sample space (S)
• Collection of all possible outcomes
Sample Space Properties
1. Mutually Exclusive
Experiment: Observe Gender
• 2 outcomes can not
occur at the same
time
— Male & Female in
same person
2. Collectively Exhaustive
• One outcome in
sample space must
occur.
— Male or Female
© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
Visualizing
Sample Space
1. Listing
S = {Head, Tail}
2. Venn Diagram
T
H
S
Sample Space Examples
Experiment Sample Space
• Toss a Coin, Note Face {Head, Tail}
• Toss 2 Coins, Note Faces {HH, HT, TH, TT}
• Select 1 Card, Note Kind {2♥, 2♠, ..., A♦} (52)
• Select 1 Card, Note Color {Red, Black}
• Play a Football Game {Win, Lose, Tie}
• Inspect a Part, Note Quality {Defective, Good}
• Observe Gender {Male, Female}
Events
1. Any collection of sample points
2. Simple Event
• Outcome with one characteristic
3. Compound Event
• Collection of outcomes or simple events
• Two or more characteristics
• Joint event is a special case
— Two events occurring simultaneously
Venn Diagram
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.
Sample Space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Compound
Event: At
least one
TH Tail
Outcome HH HT
TT
S
Event Examples
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.
Sample Space: HH, HT, TH, TT
Event Outcomes in Event
• 1 Head & 1 Tail HT, TH
• Head on 1st Coin HH, HT
• At Least 1 Head HH, HT, TH
• Heads on Both HH
Probabilities
What is Probability?
1. Numerical measure of the
likelihood that event will 1 Certain
cccur
• P(Event)
• P(A)
.5
• Prob(A)
2. Lies between 0 & 1
3. Sum of sample points is 1
0 Impossible
Probability
P(Event) = X / T
• X = Number of event outcomes
• T = Total number of sample points
in Sample Space
• Each of T sample points is equally
likely © 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
3. Formula methods
• Additive rule
• Conditional probability formula
• Multiplicative rule
Event Probability Using
Two–Way Table
Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A 1 B1) P(A1 B2) P(A1)
A2 P(A 2 B1) P(A2 B2) P(A2)
Total P(B 1) P(B 2) 1
AC
A
S
Complement of Event
Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color &
Suit.
Black
Sample
Space:
2R, 2R,
2B, ..., AB
S
Event Black: Complement of Event Black,
2B, 2B, ..., AB BlackC: 2R, 2R, ..., AR, AR
Additive Rule & Mutually
Exclusive Events
Compound Events
Compound
Events
Sample
Outcomes
in Event
Space: Heart:
2, 2, 2, 3, 4
2, ..., A , ..., A
S
Event Spade:
2, 3, 4, ..., A Events and are Mutually Exclusive
Additive Rule
1. Used to get compound probabilities for
union of events
2. P(A OR B) = P(A B)
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
3. For mutually exclusive events:
P(A OR B) = P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
Additive Rule Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color &
Suit.
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
1. P(A D) = Event
Event C D Total
2. P(B C) = A 4 2 6
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
Solution*
Using the additive rule, the probabilities are:
Black
S (S)
1. P(A|D) = Event
Event C D Total
2. P(C|B) =
A 4 2 6
3. Are C & B B 1 3 4
Independent? Total 5 5 10
Solution*
Using the formula, the probabilities Are:
P(A D) 2 / 10 2
P(A | D) = = =
P(D) 5 / 10 5
P(C B) 1 / 10 1
P(C | B) = = =
P(B) 4 / 10 4
5 1
P(C) = ≠ = P(C | B) Dependent
10 4
Multiplicative Rule
Compound Events
Compound
Events
P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )
P( Bi | A)
P( B1 ) P( A | B1 ) P( B2 ) P( A | B2 ) ... P( Bk ) P( A | Bk )
Bayes’s Rule Example
A company manufactures mp3 players at two factories.
Factory I produces 60% of the mp3 players and
Factory II produces 40%. Two percent of the mp3
players produced at Factory I are defective, while 1%
of Factory II’s are defective. An mp3 player is selected
at random and found to be defective. What is the
probability it came from Factory I?
Bayes’s Rule Example
P(D|I) = .02 Defective
Factory
P(I) = .6 I
P(G|I) = .98 Good
P(D|II) = .01 Defective
P(II) = .4 Factory
II
P(G|II) = .99 Good
P( I ) P( D | I ) .6*.02
P ( I | D) .75
P( I ) P( D | I ) P( II ) P( D | II ) .6*.02 .4*.01
Conclusion