Tutorial Chapter 2: Project

Management
Presented by

Dr Noor Ajian Mohd Lair

Senior Lecturer
Mechaincal Engineering Program
Faculty of Engineering
Universiti Malaysia Sabah

Office No 43, 2nd floor

Ext: 3422
email: nrajian72@gmail.com
 Six Steps PERT & CPM
1. Define the project and prepare the work
breakdown structure
2. Develop relationships among the activities -
decide which activities must precede and
which must follow others
3. Draw the network connecting all of the
activities
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each
activity
5. Compute the longest time path through the
network – this is called the critical path
6. Use the network to help plan, schedule,
monitor, and control the project
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3-2
 A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)
A comes before
(a) A B C B, which comes
A B C
before C
A A
A and B must both
(b) C be completed before
C can start C
B B
B
B and C cannot
(c) A begin until A is B
completed A
C C
A C C and D cannot A C
begin until both A
(d) and B are
B Education, Inc.D
© 2014 Pearson completed B D 3-3
 A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)
C cannot begin until
A C both A and B are A C
completed
(e) D cannot begin until Dummy activity
B D B is completed
B D
A dummy activity is
introduced in AOA

B and C cannot
begin until A is
completed
A B D D cannot begin A B D
until both B and C
(f) are completed Dummy C
C A dummy activity is activity
again introduced in
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3-4
AOA
 AON Example
Table 3.1 Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing’s Activities and Predecessors
IMMEDIATE
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION PREDECESSORS
A Build internal components —
B Modify roof and floor —
C Construct collection stack A
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install pollution control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test F, G

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3-5

 AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper

Activity A
A
(Build Internal Components)

Start

Activity B
Start B (Modify Roof and Floor)
Activity
Figure 3.5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3-6

 AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper
Activity A Precedes Activity C

A C

Start

B D

Activities A and B Figure 3.6

Precede Activity D
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3-7
 AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper

F
A C

E
Start H

B D G

Arrows Show Precedence Figure 3.7

Relationships
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3-8
 AOA Network for
Milwaukee Paper
C
2 4
(Construct
Stack)

H
1 Dummy 6 7
Activity (Inspect/
Test)

D
3 5
(Pour Figure 3.8
Concrete/
Install Frame)
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3-9
 CPM: Determining the Project
Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
► The critical path is the longest path
through the network
► The critical path is the shortest time in
which the project can be completed
► Any delay in critical path activities delays
the project
► Critical path activities have no slack time

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 10

 CPM: Determining the Project
Schedule
Table 3.2 Time Estimates for Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION TIME (WEEKS)
A Build internal components 2
B Modify roof and floor 3
C Construct collection stack 2
D Pour concrete and install frame 4
E Build high-temperature burner 4
F Install pollution control system 3
G Install air pollution device 5
H Inspect and test 2
Total time (weeks) 25

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 11

 CPM: Determining the Project
Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
Earliest start (ES) = earliest time at which an activity can
start, assuming all predecessors have
been completed
Earliest finish (EF) = earliest time at which an activity can be
finished
Latest start (LS) = latest time at which an activity can start
so as to not delay the completion time of
the entire project
Latest finish (LF) = latest time by which an activity has to be
finished so as to not delay the
completion time of the entire project

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 12

 CPM: Determining the Project
Schedule
Activity Format Figure 3.9

Activity Name
or Symbol
A Earliest
Earliest ES EF Finish
Start

Latest LS LF Latest
Start 2 Finish

Activity Duration
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 13
 CPM: Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Start (ES)Time Rule:
► If an activity has only a single immediate
predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the
predecessor
► If an activity has multiple immediate predecessors,
its ES is the maximum of all the EF values of its
predecessors
ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}
Earliest Finish (EF)Time Rule:
► The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is the
sum of its earliest start time (ES) and its activity
time
EF = ES + Activity time
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 14
 CPM: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper

ES EF = ES + Activity time
Start
0 0

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 15

 CPM: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
EF of A =
ES ES of A + 2
of A
A
Start 0 2
0 0

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 16

 CPM: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A
0 2

2 EF of B =
ES ES of B + 3
0
Start
0 of B
B
0 0 3

3
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 17
 CPM: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0

B
0 3

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 18

 CPM: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0
= Max (2, 3) D
0
3 7
B
0 3

3
4
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 19
 CPM: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0

B D
0 3 3 7

3 4

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 20

 CPM: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5
Figure 3.10
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 21
 CPM: Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards
Latest Finish (LF) Time Rule:
► If an activity is an immediate predecessor for
just a single activity, its LF equals the LS of the
activity that immediately follows it
► If an activity is an immediate predecessor to
more than one activity, its LF is the minimum
of all LS values of all activities that
immediately follow it
LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}
Latest Start (LS) Time Rule:
► The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the
difference of its latest finish time (LF) and its
activity time
LS = LF – Activity time
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 22
 CPM: LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
13 15
0 4 2

B D – Activity timeG
LS = LF
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5 LF = EF
of Project
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 23
 CPM: LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0
LF 4= Min(LS
8 of 13 15
following activity) 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 24

 CPM: LS/LF Times for
LF = Min(4, 10)
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
8 13
3 4 5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 25

 CPM: LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 26

 CPM: Computing Slack Time

After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times for

all activities, compute the slack or free time for
each activity

► Slack is the length of time an activity can be

delayed without delaying the entire project

Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF

► Critical path is a path that consists of activities

with zero Slack.

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 27

 CPM: Computing Slack Time
TABLE 3.3 Milwaukee Paper’s Schedule and Slack Times

EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST LATEST ON

START FINISH START FINISH SLACK CRITICAL
ACTIVITY ES EF LS LF LS – ES PATH
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes

Notes: critical path: A-C-E-G-H with expected completion time of 15 weeks

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 28
 CPM: Critical Path for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

Notes: critical path: A-C-E-G-H with expected completion time of 15 weeks

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 29
 CPM: ES – EF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 30

 CPM: LS – LF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 31

 PERT: Variability in Activity
Times
 Three time estimates are required
► Optimistic time (a) – if everything goes
according to plan
► Pessimistic time (b) – assuming very
unfavorable conditions
► Most likely time (m) – most realistic estimate
 Estimate follows beta distribution

Expected time: ai  4mi  bi

Di 
6
 b a i 
2
Variance of times: i 2
 i 
 6 
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 32
 PERT: Computing Variance
TABLE 3.4 Time Estimates (in weeks) for Milwaukee Paper’s Project

MOST
OPTIMISTIC LIKELY PESSIMISTIC EXPECTED TIME VARIANCE
ACTIVITY a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2
A 1 2 3 2 .11

B 2 3 4 3 .11

C 1 2 3 2 .11

D 2 4 6 4 .44

E 1 4 7 4 1.00

F 1 2 9 3 1.78

G 3 4 11 5 1.78

H 1 2 3 2 .11

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 33

 PERT: Determining the Project
Schedule
Activity Format Figure 3.9

Activity Name
or Symbol
A Earliest
Earliest ES EF Finish
Start

Latest LS LF Latest
Start 2 Finish

Activity Duration
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 34
 PERT: Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Start (ES)Time Rule:
► If an activity has only a single immediate
predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the
predecessor
► If an activity has multiple immediate predecessors,
its ES is the maximum of all the EF values of its
predecessors
ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}
Earliest Finish (EF)Time Rule:
► The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is the
sum of its earliest start time (ES) and its activity
time
EF = ES + Activity time
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 35
 PERT: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper

ES EF = ES + Activity time
Start
0 0

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 36

 PERT: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
EF of A =
ES ES of A + 2
of A
A
Start 0 2
0 0

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 37

 PERT: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A
0 2

2 EF of B =
ES ES of B + 3
0
Start
0 of B
B
0 0 3

3
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 38
 PERT: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0

B
0 3

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 39

 PERT: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0
= Max (2, 3) D
0
3 7
B
0 3

3
4
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 40
 PERT: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

Start
0 0

B D
0 3 3 7

3 4

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 41

 PERT: ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5
Figure 3.10
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 42
 PERT: Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards
Latest Finish (LF) Time Rule:
► If an activity is an immediate predecessor for
just a single activity, its LF equals the LS of the
activity that immediately follows it
► If an activity is an immediate predecessor to
more than one activity, its LF is the minimum
of all LS values of all activities that
immediately follow it
LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}
Latest Start (LS) Time Rule:
► The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the
difference of its latest finish time (LF) and its
activity time
LS = LF – Activity time
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 43
 PERT: LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
13 15
0 4 2

B D – Activity timeG
LS = LF
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5 LF = EF
of Project
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 44
 PERT: LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0
LF 4= Min(LS
8 of 13 15
following activity) 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 45

 PERT: LS/LF Times for
LF = Min(4, 10)
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
8 13
3 4 5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 46

 PERT: LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 47

 PERT: Computing Slack Time

After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times for

all activities, compute the slack or free time for
each activity

► Slack is the length of time an activity can be

delayed without delaying the entire project

Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF

► Critical path is a path that consists of activities

with zero Slack.

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 48

 PERT: Computing Slack Time
TABLE 3.3 Milwaukee Paper’s Schedule and Slack Times

EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST LATEST ON

START FINISH START FINISH SLACK CRITICAL
ACTIVITY ES EF LS LF LS – ES PATH
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes

Notes: critical path: A-C-E-G-H with expected completion time of 15 weeks

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 49
 PERT: Critical Path for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

Notes: critical path: A-C-E-G-H with expected completion time of 15 weeks

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 50
 PERT: ES – EF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 51

 PERT: LS – LF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 52

 PERT: Probability of Project
Critical Path Completion
Project critical path variance is
computed by summing the
variances of critical activities
p2 = Project critical path variance
= (variances of activities
on critical path)

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 53

 PERT: Probability of Project
Critical Path Completion
Project critical path variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical activities

Project critical variance

2p = .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11

Project critical path standard deviation

p = Project critical path variance
= 3.11 = 1.76 weeks
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 54
 PERT: Probability of Project
Critical Path Completion
PERT makes two more assumptions:

► Total project completion times follow a

normal probability distribution
► Activity times are statistically independent

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 55

 PERT: Probability of Project
Critical Path Completion
Figure 3.12
Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks

15 Weeks
(Expected Completion Time)

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 56

 PERT: Probability of Project
Critical Path Completion
What is the probability this Critical Path
project can be completed on or before
the 16 week deadline?

Z = Due – Expected date /p

date of path completion
= (16 weeks – 15 weeks)/1.76

= 0.57 Where Z is the number of

standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from the
mean or expected date
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 57
 PERT: Probability of Project
Critical Path
From Appendix I
Completion
What is the probability
.00 .01 this project
.07 can
.08
be completed on or before the
.1 .50000 .50399
16 week
.52790 .53188
deadline?.2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142

.5 = due .69497
Z.69146 − expected.71566
date /
.71904
p
date of completion
.6 .72575 .72907 .74857 .75175
= (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76

= 0.57 Where Z is the number of

standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from the
mean or expected date
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 58
 PERT: Probability of Project
Completion
0.57 Standard deviations
Probability
(T ≤ 16 weeks)
is 71.57%

15 16 Time
Weeks Weeks
Figure 3.13

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 59

 What Project Management (CPM
and PERT) Has Provided So Far
1. The project’s expected completion time is
15 weeks
2. There is a 71.57% chance the equipment
(correspond to the critical paths) will be in
place by the 16 week deadline
3. Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on
the critical path
4. Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the
critical path and have slack time
5. A detailed schedule is available
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 60
 The End

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 - 61