Sei sulla pagina 1di 31

Global Supply Chain

Planning

Peripheral Forecast
Rev 1 – Nov 03, 2008

FOR INTERNAL USE


DELL CONFIDENTIAL 1
Agenda
 Overview
 RAPID
 Process Flow (Visio)
 Calendar (if applicable)
 SIPOC charts
 Training Material/Screenshots/Templates
 Process Considerations
 Roles & Responsibilities
 Tool screenshots (if applicable)
 Templates (if applicable)

 Important Key Take-aways


DELL CONFIDENTIAL 2
Peripheral Forecast
Overview:

• The Peripheral forecast is a guidance process for managing, and


generating the future demand requirements to drive MRP.

• Other than historical trends the guidance is influenced by such


business changes as price moves, promotions, changes in default
options on the web or large orders.

DELL CONFIDENTIAL 3
R A P I D COC SCP SC3 BP

Peripheral
Analyze historical sales / trends P
/seasonality by segment based on
MSP

Forecast
Evaluate promo strategy / large P I I
orders / Premier page defaults /
install base

Review platform & peripheral P I I


transition plans / supportability

Analyze cost, price, and market P


information

Generate peripheral forecast by D P


attach rate or volume
P
Global HC Density

COC
Ownership for
Generate
Analyze historical sales / Evaluate promo strategy / Review platform & Analyze cost, E2E market-
peripheral forecast
trends /seasonality by large orders / Premier page peripheral transition price, and market based per.
by attach rate or
segment based on MSP defaults / install base plans / supportability information forecast
volume

SCP
Input supportability Input supportability
Proteus set-up &
scenarios that may scenarios that may
maintenance
affect demand plan affect demand plan

SC3

Buyer
Planner Inform of supply
constraints that may
require demand
adjustment actions

DELL CONFIDENTIAL 4
Solution Landscape
Today
Demand Planning Supply Planning

Solution Landscape
Proteus 1) Spreadsheet planning solutions
2) Regional MRP
Regional 3) Spreadsheet Supportability
MRPs 4) Manual D/S metrics
5) ATS analysis ??
DISP 6) Manual Order Backlog Mgmt
7) Little to no data governance

End State Demand Planning Supply Planning

Hyperion
Solution Landscape
1)Global Planning solutions
i2
i2 Demand Manager Master Planning
2)Global Demand Supply Matching
3)Automated Supportability
4)Governance metrics
5)Semi-automated ATS analysis
DISP 6)S&OP Data Governance

Supply Chain Data Hub

5
Peripheral Planning Flow “As-is and Interim”
Americas AMF Peripheral Forecasting (Attach Rate) Attach Rate Forecasting

1 09/09/08
Product
Group

Product Product
FAP
Roadmap Configuration

Promo
Roadmap

Large Order
Tracking
CoC

Develop Attach Attach Rate


Cost Rate Assumptions Review Process
Planning AR Guidance
P
P

Inventory Transition A/R Guidance


Status Management P
Options \ D
(Planning) S&P
D P
Forecast

PROTEUS

Enter/Update
Forecast
LTS Exceptions Attach Rate
13 Week Performance
Reporting reporting in Proteus
Supply Chain Planning

Supportability Reports P
I

Mod Split to Site


(COC role in APJ)
LTS P
tracking and Supportability MOD A/R
Reporting Analysis Review
P
I I P P I Proteus

Proteus
output
curement

Communicate to Supply and MRP


Peripheral Scheduler Commit data DiscP Output MRP
Peripheral Planning Flow “As-is and Interim”
EMEA/APJ
EMEA & APJ Peripheral Forecasting (Attach Rate) Attach Rate Forecasting

1 10/20/08
Product
Group

Product Product
FAP
Roadmap Configuration

Promo
Roadmap AR Guidance

Large Order
Tracking

Develop Attach Attach Rate


PROTEUS
CoC

Cost Rate Assumptions Review Process


Planning P
P Enter/Update
Inventory Transition Attach Rate
Status Management in Proteus
Options \
(Planning) D P
S&P
D P
Forecast

Mod Split to Site


Forecast (COC role in APJ)
LTS Exceptions
13 Week Performance
(APJ COC Owned Processes)

Reporting reporting
Supportability Reports P
Supply Chain Planning

LTS
tracking and Supportability MOD A/R Proteus
Reporting Analysis Review
P
I
I P P I

Proteus
output
urement

Communicate to Supply and MRP


Peripheral Scheduler Commit data DiscP Output MRP
Peripheral Planning Flow – Future State (12-24 mo)
Future State Peripheral Forecasting (Attach Rate) Attach Rate Forecasting

1 10/20/08
Product

Wind-chill
Group

Planning Product Product


Item FAP
Roadmap Configuration

Promo
Roadmap Options \
S&P
Large Order Forecast
Tracking
Review and
Manage I2 DM Peripheral Fcst
CoC

Cost I2 DM
Planning generated FCST
D P
Inventory
Status
Transition
Management
(Planning)

Forecast Exceptions
Global Supply Chain Planning

LTS 13 Week Performance reporting


Supportability
Reporting Reports
I

Site Splits Proteus


(Regional) ????
LTS Demand
Supportability
tracking and Validation/
Analysis
Reporting Rationalization
P I P
I P
curement

Communicate to Supply and MRP


Peripheral Scheduler Commit data DiscP Output MRP
Peripheral SCP
Global vs. Regional R&R’s

Proces

Part Level Supportability - 1-2

Demand Shaping Recommend


9
Peripheral SCP
Global vs. Regional R&R’s

10
Peripheral Forecast
R&R’s
• Recommend: Suggests actions based on analysis.


Agree:
Perform:
Agrees to action or with analysis.
Does the work, gathers data, conducts analysis, etc.
+ i
• Input: Provides data, ideas, suggestions, etc. to the process.
• Decide: Responsible for making a decision for action.
• inform: Copied on information and takes action as required (note it is a lower case “i”)

 Task COC PG SCP (Global) SCP WWP Ops Cell


(Regional)

FAP Creation I,R, i P,D

Product/Peripheral Roadmap i P i i i

Product Configuration P i i i

NSRD development – Planning I R i i


item attribution
Generate and load peripheral P,D I I
forecast at planning item level

MOD and Geo Split R,P,D

Geo capacity Planning P,D

Global MRP consolidation, i P,I i


reconciliation, and rationalization
- Reporting
Supportability Analysis – i P,I i I
Commodity/LOB
11
Peripheral Forecast -
Process Gap Considerations
 Solution for how the Peripheral Forecast flows into MRP (Proteus today)?
 Exceptions reporting to identify unassigned MODS, new SKU through alerts
in DM.
Data Governance – Planning Item/NSRD BOM flow into DM from
Windshield.
 NSRD (Wind-chill) to DM feed
 Create an alert that a new NSRD or Speed-bump is available to the
correct LOB contact
 Not all Base Codes/Planning Items in an NSRD will be launched. DM
needs to be able to flag those that will not need to be forecasted. May
vary by region too.
 Ability to create a baseline forecast using a like item
 Data Governance - Consistent Planning Item naming convention for
commodities planned across several LOBs
WHY DIFFERENCES
Regional process alignment will be enabled with the rollout of i2 DM in 12 – 24
months. In the interim, process disparity will continue to exist amongst regions,
with the primary difference being Proteus management by the SCP team in the
Americas.
• Data governance for “Planning item” will be globally available in FY10
• Peripheral planning enablement in I2 DM expected in FY10
AMERICAS PROCESS APJ/EMEA PROTEUS
Forecast cycle: 18+ months Fcst cycle: 4-6 months
- Historical detail, for family-Parent - Proteus historical data limited
18+ months - Does not support Seasonality
- Seasonality reviews – by Segment, analysis
by product
- Peripheral attach rate data is
refreshed with IT supported data
Planning Level: Mod
Planning Level: Planning Item /
- MOD level planning is inherently
SKU
complex
- Aligns with future state process - MS support to load mods into
- SCP team translates into mod level Proteus
demand
- Global planning item availability
Peripheral Planning
Example

Notes:
• Attach Rate percents do not necessarily have to add up to 100% for all Commodities
• Planning Item 2 for Commodity 1 may be shared with multiple FAM/FAM PAR with very different AR% for each.

14
Peripheral Forecast –
Calendar

i2 DM exceptions reporting and alerts will drive the weekly forecast management cycle.
Peripheral Planning –
SIPOC
Generate Forecast for the Peripherals
Objective Owners
CoC Segment DPT

Supplier/Input Process Output/Customer


Sales Segment/Finance: Peripheral Forecast
• Promo roadmap Analyze History: Generate a baseline Attach Rate Forecast using statistical • Procurement GBP
• Salesforce.com techniques, historical adjustments based on time phased attribution for peripherals
• LOT (what was 1st up-sell 2 quarters back is now base model)

CoC Pricing:
• Cost/Price assumptions
Analyze Performance to Plan:
•Under runners, over runners, QTD trend analysis
CoC LOB DPT
• MPP •Over runners cannibalizing under runners

System
• Actuals at Planning Make adjustments to the baseline Attach Rate Forecast:
Item/SKU level • Correction for under runners & over runners
•Based on Cost Package, peripherals roadmap, FAP
PG
• Peripherals roadmap
• FAP
Run supportability analysis: Attach Rate Forecast is applied to MSP to generate
SCP volume plan for Peripherals. Master Planning provides the supportability based on
• Supportability of supply constraints
Peripherals
• Exceptions Feedback Make adjustments based on supportability analysis results. Finalize the
• Performance to plan
Attach Rate Forecast. Generate Peripherals forecast by multiplying MSP with
attach rates

Key Reports to Support the Process


Performance to Plan
Peripheral Planning –
SIPOC Key Reports
Report Measure/ Dimension/ Description
Field Level
Performance to • Forecasted • Item: Planning • Helps identify the under runners & over runners. Also helps to draw the correlation if
Plan Attach Rate item/SKU over runners are cannibalizing the under runners. Forms basis for adjusting the future
• Actual Attach • Time: Week attach rate
Rate • Geo: Region
• Channel: Segment
• Version: Lead time
version (if the lead time
for getting the particular
mod is 2 months, then
take current month-2
forecast version)

Examples of reports:
Supportability
Forecast Performance
MOD Exception Report (EMEA)
Hyperion Reports
e2e D/S Planning Architecture –
Systems View
Customer / Sales Regional & Global CoCs Master Planning WWP / ODM Planners
(Commercial and Consumer)

Global Supply Supplier


MSP Planning
Planning Collaboration
SCP
MPP Systems ODM
Planning Collaboration
MPP Peripheral DISC-P
Planning
Proteus

Global Demand
Review
Demand Planning Platform

D\S Interlock
Demand Planning Platform

Regional Capacity Global


Planning MRP
SCP SCP

Supply Chain MDM

18
Peripheral Forecast
- Guidelines for CoC -
Americas
 Complete SKU attribution for new SKUs.
 Review new SKUs with PLM & Pricing teams.
 Validate the update of the Attach Files.
 Confirm each platform has a tab.
 Confirm the list of commodities.
 Prepare the forecast file and link to Attach file.
 Update the Forecast file for guidance communication:
 Review of historical attach (at least 3 months average)
 Update to be completed and communicated by Wed of weeks 2, 6 and
11 of each quarter.
 Make changes weekly where needed (full review monthly)
 Communicate the new forecast guidance to Regional SCP.
Peripheral Forecast
- Guidelines for CoC –
EMEA/APJ
 Review new MODS with product & cost team

 Engage with product/cost team to integrate any component transitions

 Review historical attach (at least 3 months average)

 Adjust/review over & under performing MODs from information provided


by Regional SCP in MOD exception files.

 Adjust % rates in Proteus directly (notify Regional SCP where needed


e.g. large deal inclusion and promo plans)

 Make changes weekly where needed (full review monthly)

 Confirm back to Regional SCP when changes have been done and/or
summary on monthly overall changes
Peripheral Forecast -
Guidelines for SCP -
Americas
 Add/Delete new MODs to Proteus templates.
Review COC Peripheral Forecast guidance provided at the
Planning Noun
 Load the COC Peripheral Forecast guidance into Proteus at the
MOD level.
 Validate dependent MODs (e.g. loading a cable and battery forecast
for every PERC card).
 Validate MRP matches guidance loaded into Proteus.
Provide 13-week supportability feedback.
 Provide exception feedback.
 Complete site split and geo capacity planning.
 Publish and track overselling/underselling MODs working with
COC for plan of action.
Publish and track LTS.
Peripheral Forecast -
Guidelines for SCP –
EMEA/APJ
 Add/delete new MODs to Proteus template

 Notify COC that new forecast needed

 Chase NPI for complete mod list and MOD availability 120 days
before RTS.

 Produce MOD accuracy report weekly (on a Monday)

 Validate MRP output matches forecast loaded into Proteus.

 Complete site split and geo capacity planning.

 RTS DSI readiness (Optimal DSI target) and notification to CoC


Peripheral Forecast -
Guidelines for GBP

 Use Peripheral Forecast guidance from MRP output to generate


PO’s.

 Drive optimal DSI targets by rationalizing the MRP demand


signal against current inventory levels.

Automatically activate deviation/repoint/regional balancing if


shortage/backlog arise in any plants.

Provide SCP with cost and timeline information for air freights and
confirm COC approval before initiating air freights.
Peripheral Forecast –
Mod Accuracy – EMEA
Identification of outlying performing mods
Peripheral Forecast –
Mod Accuracy – EMEA
Identification of Mods via pivot drill
Peripheral Forecast –
Mod Accuracy – EMEA
Identification of performance, and mod details to
enable mod correction
Tool Training Screenshots
Screen
shot of the
Americas’
Attach file
updated
by DIS.
The Nouns
are the
attributed
SKUs per
Attribution
Tool.
Tool Training Screenshots

Screen shot of the Americas’ Peripheral Forecast file


communicated to DAO for review and Proteus input.
Training Material
Screenshots

 Screenshots of Proteus A/R views

 Supportability Reports/Meeting Schedules

 Supportability Views/Snapshots

 DiscP/Hyperion views

 Daily/Weekly scenario/decision based activities

Add screenshots
Important Key take-
aways
 Proteus Template lines with the status of 'Inactive' do not create
output in the MRP.
 How do you accept a Transferred template line in the Proteus

PeripheralTemplate?
By changing the Line 'Status' from
'Transferred' to 'Active‘
 In the Proteus Peripheral Template, the 'Manual Adjustment'
forecast type can be a positive number, but manual adjustments are
allowed. If the total forecast is less than zero for a time period, zero
is passed to the MRP.
 When copying inserting a Template line in the Proteus Peripheral
Template, what do you do?
Click anywere in the line

DELL CONFIDENTIAL 30
Peripheral Forecast
Change Control

Date (MM/DD/YY) Version Description Revised By

11/03/08 1.0 Initial document release. Stephane Martini


Process flows :
- Americas As Is = Rev 1 Sep 9, 2008
- EMEA / APJ As Is = Rev 1 = Oct 20, 2008
- Future State = Rev 1 = Oct 20, 2008
Deck = Rev 1 = Nov 3rd , 2008

DELL CONFIDENTIAL 31

Potrebbero piacerti anche