1

I
 International Tourism, Number of Arrivals
30000000

25000000

20000000

15000000
27437000
24577000 24714000 25033000 25715000

10000000

11098000 11899000 11864000

5000000 9161000 10390000 9435000
7650000 8044000 8802000
7003000

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

malay indonesia singapura

3
Contribution tourism sector
on GDP (Ministry of culture and Tourism)

4
Contribution of Tourism Sector to Indonesia's GDP (billion)

2014 391.49

2013 365.02

2012 326.24

2011 296.97

2010 261.06

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

5
Introduction
Purpose of Research
Knowing the impact of
income per capita, number
of foreign tourists, average
length to stay , and
occupancy rate of the
hotel against the regional
revenue in 9 provinces in
Indonesia.
Research Problems
What is the the impact
of income per capita,
number of foreign
tourists,
average length to stay ,
and occupancy
rate of the hotel against
the regional revenue in
9 provinces in
Indonesia
6
II
Theoretical
Basis Per capita income is average
income earned by per person
in a given area such a city,
region, country in a specified
year. It’s calculated by dividing
the area’s total income by it’s
total population. The
increasing of average income
will increase the local revenue
as well.

8 8
Theoretical
Based on Law No.10 of 2009,
Basis tourism is various tourism
activities that supported by
various facilities and services
provided by the community,
businessman, government,
and local government. Tourism
is a temporary trip by people
from place to place with plan
and no intention to make a
living in the visited place.
9 9
Theoretical
Basis According to Kawedar, 2008,
regional revenue consists of
regional taxes, regional levies,
regional wealth management
which is being separated and
other legimate income.

10 10
Theoretical According to United Nation
World Tourim Organization
Basis (UNWTO), foreign tourists is
any person travelling to
foreign country less than a
year, motivated by a primary
purpose (business, vacation or
other personal purposes),
except working with the
residents of the visited country.
The increasing of foreign
tourists will also increase the
amount of received taxes.
11 11
Theoretical Muqqadas, A. Azinar, A. Karim
Saleh and Madris (2011) said
Basis that the hotel occupancy rates
significantly influence the
amount of received hotel taxes
that directly will increase the
regional revenue. It’s calculated
by dividing the total number of
rooms occupied by the total
number of rooms available in
percent.

12 12
Theoretical
Basis Average length of stay is
calculated by dividing total
length of stay by the total
number of reservations.
Average length of stay consists
of average length of stay for
foreign guests, domestic
guests and total guests.

13 13
Theoretical
Basis
Accomodation is a business
using a building or part of it
that specially prepared for
anyone to stay, eat, and obtain
other services and facilities
with payment.

14 14
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Pooled least square Fixed Effect Model

Chow Test

H0: PLS H1: FEM

Hausman Test

H0: REM H1: FEM

LM Test

H0 : Homoskedastik H1 : Heteroskedastik

CD Test

H0 : Heteroskedastik H1 : SUR

CS Weight CS SUR
Vidya Dwi Anggitasari Aliandi, Herniwati Retno
Handayani (2014)
Pidelis Murib, Debby C. Rotinsulu, Dan Krest D.
Tolosang (2016)
Denny Cessario Sutrisno (2013)
Devilian Fitri,Dr. Ansofino, M. Si, Desi Areva, M. Pd
(2014)
 Per capita income

Regional revenue
Number of foreign
tourist

Hotel occupancy rate

Average length of stay

Number of
accomodation facilities
 “ Hypothesis

• Per capita income presumed to be positively significant on

regional revenue.
• Number of foreign tourist presumed to be positively
significant on regional revenue.
• Hotel occupancy rate presumed to be positively significant on
regional revenue.
• Average length of stay presumed to be positively significant
on regional revenue.
• Number of accomodation facilities presumed to be positively
significant on regional revenue.

23
III
Methodology Location Time
The study was conducted in
9 provinces in Indonesia:
North Sumatera,
Riau, Riau Islands
, DKI Jakarta, Central Java,
Technique of Data DIY, East Java, Bali, NTB
Analysis on 2010 - 2014

Panel Data Regression Source of Data

(inferences)
BPS
Table and Graphic (descriptive)

25
 General Model of Data Panel

fungsi model data penel adalah sebagai berikut:

TPTit = f(PDRBit, UMRit, INFit ,EDCit )
Dari fungsi di atas, kemudian dibentuk persamaan
𝑇𝑃𝑇𝑖𝑡
= 𝛼0 + 𝛽1 PDRBit + 𝛽2 𝑈𝑀𝑅𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4 𝐸𝐷𝐶𝑖𝑡 + 𝑒𝑖𝑡
Data Panel Estimation Technique
Pooled Least Square (PLS)
𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼 + 𝛽1 𝑥1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2 𝑥2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑝 𝑥𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝑒𝑖𝑡

Fixed Effect Model (FEM)

𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝑎1 + 2 𝐷2𝑖 + 3 𝐷3𝑖 + ⋯ + 𝑛 𝐷𝑛𝑖 + 𝛽1 𝑥1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2 𝑥2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑝 𝑥𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝑒𝑖𝑡

Random Effect Model (REM)

𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝑎 + 𝛽1 𝑥1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2 𝑥2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑝 𝑥𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝑒𝑖𝑡 + 𝑢𝑖
 Effect Test Statistics Prob Result
Chow Test 145.413248 0.0000 Fixed Effect Model is the better
model
Hausman 15.469019 0.0085 Fixed Effect Model is the better
Test model

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 9
Series: Standardized Residuals
8 Sample 2010 2014
Observations 44
7

6 Mean 2.27e-17
Median 0.009053
5 Maximum 0.190041
Minimum -0.235405
4
Std. Dev. 0.096800
3 Skewness -0.305385
Kurtosis 2.573457
2
Jarque-Bera 1.017462
1
Probability 0.601258
0
-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

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 Test Statistics Chi-Square Result
Table
Lagrange 21.5332 15.507 Heteroscedatic
Multiplier Test ity

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 Test Statistics Chi-Square Result
Table
λ-Lagrange 23.2686 50.998 No
Multiplier Test correlation

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 LOG(INCO LOG(STA LOG(TOURI
Variables ME) LOG(ROOM) Y) ST) LOG(ACC)
LOG(INCO
ME) - 1.779201 1.00373 1.048058 1.020780538
LOG(ROOM
) 1.779201 - 1.129493 1.116071 1.135982
LOG(STAY) 1.00373 1.129493 - 1.260044 1.011333688
LOG(TOURI
ST) 1.048058 1.116071 1.260044 - 1.488459845
LOG(ACC.) 1.020781 1.135982 1.011334 1.48846 -

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Final Model
 Model Equation

CROSSID Effect
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = -31.2006 1 East Java 1.944674
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) - 2 Central Java 1.895059
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 3 Yogyakarta 1.054706
0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) + 4 Riau -0.573268
5 North Sumatra 1.088480
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) + 6 Riau Island -3.963515
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION) + 7 Jakarta -2.188963
[CX=F] 8 Bali -0.981841
West Nusa
9 Tenggara 1.286876
 Cross-sectional
Model:
1. East Java
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = --29.2559+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
2. Central Java
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = -29.3055+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
 Cross-sectional
Model:
3. Yogyakarta
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = --30.1459+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
4. Riau
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = --31.7739+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
 Cross-sectional
Model:
5. North Sumatera
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = -30.1121+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
6. Riau Island
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = --35.1641+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
 Cross-sectional
Model:
7. Jakarta
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = --33.3895+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
8. Bali
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = --32.1824+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
 Cross-sectional
Model:
9. West Nusa Tenggara
LOG(REAL_LOCAL_REVENUE) = --29.9137+
2.5945*LOG(INCOME_PER_CAPITA) -
0.0081*ROOM_OCCUPANCY_RATE + 0.0291*LOG(AVERAGE_STAY) +
0.4327*LOG(FOREIGN_TOURIST_ARR) +
0.5818*LOG(NUMBER_ACCOMODATION)
 Time Series

Variables Level 1st Differenced Result

ADF statistic Prob. ADF statistic Prob
Log(GDP) -0.342735 0.9024 -4.567101 0.0020 Stationer at 1st
differenced

Log(Tourism_Receipt 0.991302 0.9945 -5.488295 0.0003 Stationer at 1st

s) differenced
 Lag Length Criteria

Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ

0 11.73666 4.145935 0.001884 -0.603859 -0.305615 -0.553385

1 9.275015 NA* 0.001594* -0.765791* -0.666376* -0.748966*
2 13.35420 2.383737 0.002470 -0.353074 0.143999 -0.268949
 Stability Model Test
Root Modulus

0.014009 - 0.539526i 0.539708

0.014009 + 0.539526i 0.539708
-0.261231 - 0.316586i 0.410449
-0.261231 + 0.316586i 0.410449
 Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial
1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
• Every 1 percent increase in Per capita income , Regional Revenue
increased by 2,59 percent while other variable assumptions are
constant.
• Every 1 percent increase in Number of foreign tourist , Regional
Revenue increased by 0,43 percent while other variable
assumptions are constant.
• Every 1 percent increase in Number of accomodation facilities ,
Regional Revenue increased by 0,58 percent while other variable
assumptions are constant.
• R2 = 0.99. That is, the size of changes in regional revenue
variability due to variability of independent variables together.
• DW = 1.61. Approaching 2, indicates the absence of
autocorrelation.
“

—LEVAR BURTON

47